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posted by martyb on Thursday September 14 2017, @08:15AM   Printer-friendly
from the living-off-the-grid dept.

On March 13th, 1989 a surge of energy from the sun, from a "coronal mass ejection", had a startling impact on Canada. Within 92 seconds, the resulting geomagnetic storm took down Quebec's electricity grid for nine hours. It could have been worse. On July 23rd 2012 particles from a much larger solar ejection blew across the orbital path of Earth, missing it by days. Had it hit America, the resulting geomagnetic storm would have destroyed perhaps a quarter of high-voltage transformers, according to Storm Analysis Consultants in Duluth, Minnesota. Future geomagnetic storms are inevitable.

And that is not the only threat to the grid. A transformer-wrecking electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would be produced by a nuclear bomb, designed to maximise its yield of gamma rays, if detonated high up, be it tethered to a big cluster of weather balloons or carried on a satellite or missile.

[...] After the surge, telecom switches and internet routers are dead. Air-traffic control is down. Within a day, some shoppers in supermarkets turn to looting (many, unable to use credit and debit cards, cannot pay even if they wanted to). After two days, market shelves are bare. On the third day, backup diesel generators begin to sputter out. Though fuel cannot be pumped, siphoning from vehicles, authorised by martial law, keeps most prisons, police stations and hospitals running for another week.

[...] Yet not much is being done. Barack Obama ordered EMP protection for White House systems, but FERC, the utilities regulator, has not required EMP-proofing. Nor has the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) pushed for a solution or even included EMP in official planning scenarios. (The Pentagon should handle that, DHS officials say; the Pentagon notes that civilian infrastructure is the DHS's responsibility.) As for exactly what safeguards are or are not needed, the utilities themselves are best equipped to decide, says Brandon Wales, the DHS's head of infrastructure analysis.

But the utilities' industry group, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), argues that, because EMP is a matter of national security, it is the government's job. NERC may anyway be in no rush. It took a decade to devise a vegetation-management plan after, in 2003, an Ohio power line sagged into branches and cut power to 50m north-easterners at a cost of roughly $6bn. NERC has repeatedly and successfully lobbied Congress to prevent legislation that would require EMP-proofing. That is something America, and the world, could one day regret.

Is a widespread blackout the end of the world?


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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by DannyB on Thursday September 14 2017, @04:54PM (4 children)

    by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday September 14 2017, @04:54PM (#567927) Journal

    Internet routers and data centers are not what to worry about.

    If the US were to lose electricity for even two weeks, society would completely break down into anarchy and riots. And nothing would stop it.

    Consider.

    First is the hardship of not having power. But you still have your car. Until it runs out of fuel. But there is the filling station. But it may not have electricity to pump fuel. And if it does, it will soon run out. And don't expect more deliveries anytime soon. Refineries are not all going to be running, if any. Fuel shortages will disrupt shipping of everything, including fuel.

    And groceries.

    When your local grocery store is picked clean, within a week or so, how do you think it is going to get re-stocked?

    Nobody has food. That's a more immediate and primal problem than whether your internet works.

    And water. Your local water tower will probably run out of water in three days or less. And no power to pump more water into the tower. And will your municipal water supply even provide clean water without power?

    What about keeping warm in colder climates? Will people eventually turn to burning artwork?

    Without utility power that we take for granted, thing will fall apart surprisingly quickly. No reassuring platitudes from politicians will stop it.

    --
    People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 14 2017, @05:17PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 14 2017, @05:17PM (#567946)

    People get by during long power outages all the time. Hell, there are places where people get by with no power whatsoever(India comes to mind)

    people are a lot more resilient than you might think. If the people in power make the right logistical decisions -- which I am very doubtful of -- things would turn out okay, and if they didn't they'd be removed shortly enough.

    • (Score: 4, Informative) by DannyB on Thursday September 14 2017, @05:30PM (2 children)

      by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday September 14 2017, @05:30PM (#567955) Journal

      Those people who get by without power are probably not in a dense population center. They are probably somewhat self sufficient as far as food and water supply.

      In a city, not so much.

      Even a small city.

      Also, you're saying people get by during long power outages -- probably because food, water, drugs and other necessities can be shipped in -- supported by working infrastructure elsewhere.

      What I described was if the entire US (or perhaps a very large part of the US) were to lose utility power for weeks.

      --
      People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
      • (Score: 5, Interesting) by Phoenix666 on Thursday September 14 2017, @08:02PM (1 child)

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday September 14 2017, @08:02PM (#568055) Journal

        I experienced the 2003 blackout in New York City. A giant triangle of outage covered the Northeast. It was summer. It took them days to restore power. Millions of people had to walk home at once. There were no riots or looting. People didn't panic. They handled it. Ice cream shops gave their ice cream away. People checked on their elderly neighbors. Everyone helped out strangers.

        So it was possible for people to enjoy the unexpected benefits of having no electricity. BBQs on the roof and being able to see the Milky Way over Manhattan.

        Life, even modern life, can continue without electricity if it has to.

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
        • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Monday September 18 2017, @07:07PM

          by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Monday September 18 2017, @07:07PM (#569859) Journal

          That is encouraging to hear. I suspect that there was a universal expectation that the power would be restored in a short time. That the power loss condition was not permanent, or at least not long term (eg, months)

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          People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.