Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

SoylentNews is people

posted by martyb on Monday October 02 2017, @01:02PM   Printer-friendly
from the deal++ dept.

Monty Hall, Co-Creator and Host of 'Let's Make a Deal,' Dies at 96

Monty Hall, the genial host and co-creator of "Let's Make a Deal," the game show on which contestants in outlandish costumes shriek and leap at the chance to see if they will win the big prize or the booby prize behind door No. 3, died at his home in Beverly Hills, Calif., on Saturday. He was 96.

[...] "Let's Make a Deal" became such a pop-culture phenomenon that it gave birth to a well-known brain-twister in probability, called "the Monty Hall Problem." This thought experiment involves three doors, two goats and a coveted prize and leads to a counterintuitive solution.

[...] Mr. Hall had his proud moments as well. In 1973 he received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. In 1988, Mr. Hall, who was born in Canada, was named to the Order of Canada by that country's government in recognition of the millions he had raised for a host of charities. In 2013 he was presented with a lifetime achievement award at the Daytime Emmys.

The Monty Hall problem:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Vos Savant's response was that the contestant should switch to the other door. Under the standard assumptions, contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while contestants who stick to their initial choice have only a 1/3 chance. [...] Many readers of vos Savant's column refused to believe switching is beneficial despite her explanation. After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them claiming vos Savant was wrong. Even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still do not accept that switching is the best strategy (vos Savant 1991a). Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating the predicted result.

Related: Get Those Brain Cells Working: The Monty Hall Problem


Original Submission

 
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.
Display Options Threshold/Breakthrough Mark All as Read Mark All as Unread
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
  • (Score: 5, Interesting) by bob_super on Monday October 02 2017, @06:30PM

    by bob_super (1357) on Monday October 02 2017, @06:30PM (#576055)

    The problem that people really faced is that they made a decision. Maybe it's good, maybe it's bad.
    They are presented with new evidence, and they have to decide whether they made a wrong decision. Nobody ever wants to have made a wrong decision. Nobody ever likes to change the decision they made, even if they are told repeatedly that the odds that it turns out correct are significantly lower than the odds that they were right, but the odds that they were right are non negligible.
    Change your mind? Hate that one of your two decisions is the wrong decision: 100% chance you have been wrong in this process. Not change your mind? The world tells you you should, yet you struggle to admit you could be wrong, and maybe not get rewarded anyway.

    Totally unlike elections.

    Starting Score:    1  point
    Moderation   +3  
       Interesting=2, Touché=1, Total=3
    Extra 'Interesting' Modifier   0  
    Karma-Bonus Modifier   +1  

    Total Score:   5