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posted by martyb on Monday October 02 2017, @01:02PM   Printer-friendly
from the deal++ dept.

Monty Hall, Co-Creator and Host of 'Let's Make a Deal,' Dies at 96

Monty Hall, the genial host and co-creator of "Let's Make a Deal," the game show on which contestants in outlandish costumes shriek and leap at the chance to see if they will win the big prize or the booby prize behind door No. 3, died at his home in Beverly Hills, Calif., on Saturday. He was 96.

[...] "Let's Make a Deal" became such a pop-culture phenomenon that it gave birth to a well-known brain-twister in probability, called "the Monty Hall Problem." This thought experiment involves three doors, two goats and a coveted prize and leads to a counterintuitive solution.

[...] Mr. Hall had his proud moments as well. In 1973 he received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. In 1988, Mr. Hall, who was born in Canada, was named to the Order of Canada by that country's government in recognition of the millions he had raised for a host of charities. In 2013 he was presented with a lifetime achievement award at the Daytime Emmys.

The Monty Hall problem:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Vos Savant's response was that the contestant should switch to the other door. Under the standard assumptions, contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while contestants who stick to their initial choice have only a 1/3 chance. [...] Many readers of vos Savant's column refused to believe switching is beneficial despite her explanation. After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them claiming vos Savant was wrong. Even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still do not accept that switching is the best strategy (vos Savant 1991a). Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating the predicted result.

Related: Get Those Brain Cells Working: The Monty Hall Problem


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  • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Tuesday October 03 2017, @07:44AM

    by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Tuesday October 03 2017, @07:44AM (#576483) Homepage
    My favourite use of monty hall is not for distinguishing smartypants who know the answer from those who don't, but for distinguishing those who can understand a sound logical explanation from those that can't. There's no shame in getting the answer wrong when initially posed the question, it's not immediately obvious, but there is something wrong without being able to understand an explanatio such as yours.

    However, sometimes the question is ambiguously worded, or leaves wiggle room for deliberate misinterpretation. The actual make a deal scenario *does* deviate from the monty hall problem, for example. The host must be disinterested, and must always offer a chance to swap (and know where the car is). Real Monty didn't always offer the swap, and was not entirely disinterested.

    It's funny that the person you're responding to so nearly made the link between his premises and the correct conclusion, and in fact your entire argument:
    """
    Your odds of guessing correctly are based on the number of doors you are allowed to choose for your final choice(s). But if you only get one final choice then your odds are still one in three.
    """
    Because:
    sticking means chosing one door for opening.
    switching means chosing *every other door*, just with no surprises from the ones monty revealed.
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