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Some of the great moments of history sneak up on businesspeople. Two years ago, Britain looked to be Europe's most economically rational country; now its companies seem to be rolling from one economic earthquake to another, with Brexit looking increasingly likely to be followed by the election of a near-Marxist prime minister, Jeremy Corbyn.
Looking back, two things stand out. First, there were some deep underlying "irrational" causes that business ignored, such as the pent-up anger against immigration and globalization. Second, there was a string of short-term political decisions that proved to be miscalculations. For decades, for example, attacking the European Union was a "free hit" for British politicians. If David Cameron had it to do over again, would he really have made the referendum on whether to stay in it a simple majority vote (or indeed called a vote at all)? Does Angela Merkel now regret giving Cameron so few concessions before the Brexit vote? Would the moderate Labour members of Parliament who helped Corbyn get on their party's leadership ballot in the name of political diversity really do that again?
Now, another rupture may be sneaking up on Europe, driven by a similar mixture of pent-up anger and short-term political maneuvering. This one is between the old West European democratic core of the EU, led by Merkel and increasingly by Emmanuel Macron, who are keen to integrate the euro zone, and the populist authoritarians of Eastern Europe, who dislike Brussels. This time the arguments are ones about political freedom and national sovereignty.
Eastern Europe's gripes are nothing a little anschluss couldn't cure.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Sulla on Friday October 06 2017, @02:19AM (7 children)
Maybe if the EU leadership had left things as a trade union with a common market and not tried to make a fourth reich. EU pushing one leader (junkers), an EU joint military, required military actions based on simple majority (instead of unanimous), refugee quotas, and leaders suggesting individual nations have no real culture. The southern states tried to break away for less. The US was an easier melding pot due to everyone being anglo-german with a pretty similar culture (rejecting Europe), the EU is an amalgamation of distinct cultures that have had issues with one another for two thousand years.
A trade union is good, but I think it is too early for a US style super country.
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 5, Insightful) by aim on Friday October 06 2017, @09:44AM (6 children)
The trade union thing is a very english view of Europe.
For the (at least the western) continentals, the EU is foremost a political union designed to prevent any more wars, based on the experiences of the world wars which saw widespread destruction and death all across the continent (and islands).
Pretty much everything e.g. Jean-Claude Juncker says or does stems from that premise, it's most important to stay in discussions than to utterly alienate people that don't share the fundamental values (e.g. "conflict" with the eastern states, situation with Turkey). A JCJ has pretty direct memories of the horrors of WW2 - his home country was occupied during the war, his family and general entourage certainly had many stories to tell from wartime (I've had such testimonies from my own parents and grandparents), which explains much of his motivations.
Younger people especially are rather more disconnected from what they only know from history books or from "far away"... and don't realize how quickly such circumstances could come about also in Europe - see the current situation in Catalonia, which could easily deteriorate.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 06 2017, @10:24AM
"To prevent the kind of wars fought when Germany previously attempted to exert dominion over Europe, we will create a political union allowing Germany to exert dominion over Europe".
We're well aware of the motivations of the original European federalists. They would surely have been entirely opposed to creating a corpocracy [wikipedia.org] with public calls for formation of an army and lebensraum.
(Score: 1) by Sulla on Friday October 06 2017, @02:18PM (3 children)
I am glad that in trying to keep the EU from acting like occupation Germany he is supporting the Spanish police beating people for doing something "illegal".
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 3, Informative) by aim on Friday October 06 2017, @02:37PM (2 children)
You're very mistaken there. He certainly officially said the EU considers the referendum as illegal, but he also sent a very thinly veiled message to Madrid telling them that the violence was unacceptable. That message may have been too subtle for many, but plain to anyone with a notion of diplomacy. I noted no later than today that apologies were extended to the Catalans regarding that violence (whatever that's worth...).
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Sulla on Friday October 06 2017, @07:32PM (1 child)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-04/eu-defends-spain-s-right-to-use-proportionate-force [bloomberg.com]
I really love the idea of "proportionate use of force", really a shame that all these Catalans choose to hold illegal ideas and votes and protested peacefully. Did not realize that beating people was proportionate to peacefully protesting. Guess its just because I don't understand Democracy.
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 2) by aim on Monday October 09 2017, @08:05AM
Are you misunderstanding that phrase on purpose, i.e. trolling? That's the very critic right there - the violence was disproportionate, this was the very message sent to Madrid, and most probably the reason for those apologies.
(Score: 2) by Aiwendil on Saturday October 07 2017, @11:38AM
Over here (sweden) EU was promoted as a trade and travel union when try tried to make us join.
And the goal of EU wasn't to prevent war, that was the goal of the European Coal and Steel Community (expired in 2002) [wikipedia.org]
Quite frankly EU (post Maastricht) is just weird and aims to become a super-state.