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posted by martyb on Wednesday October 18 2017, @03:06PM   Printer-friendly
from the down-to-earth-warning dept.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/13/tiangong-1-chinese-space-station-will-crash-to-earth-within-months

An 8.5-tonne Chinese space station has accelerated its out-of-control descent towards Earth and is expected to crash to the surface within a few months.

The Tiangong-1 or "Heavenly Palace" lab was launched in 2011 and described as a "potent political symbol" of China, part of an ambitious scientific push to turn China into a space superpower. It was used for both manned and unmanned missions and visited by China's first female astronaut, Liu Yang, in 2012.

But in 2016, after months of speculation, Chinese officials confirmed they had lost control of the space station and it would crash to Earth in 2017 or 2018. China's space agency has since notified the UN that it expects Tiangong-1 to come down between October 2017 and April 2018.

[...] Although much of the craft is expected to burn up in the atmosphere, McDowell says some parts might still weigh up to 100kg when they crash into the Earth's surface.


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  • (Score: 2) by goodie on Wednesday October 18 2017, @04:32PM (17 children)

    by goodie (1877) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @04:32PM (#583999) Journal

    Would they ever think of some sort of autodestruct button or it's too dangerous to send a payload to space with this? I mean just for these types of cases basically. That or Trump could negotiate a deal with China to try the US interception program on a real, uncontrolled target since controlled trials have so far been yielding mixed results. You know, just to show NK how well prepared they are ;-)

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  • (Score: 2, Insightful) by nitehawk214 on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:23PM (5 children)

    by nitehawk214 (1304) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:23PM (#584015)

    So lets turn a dangerous falling object into several dangerous falling objects?

    --
    "Don't you ever miss the days when you used to be nostalgic?" -Loiosh
    • (Score: 4, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:51PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:51PM (#584024)

      So lets turn a dangerous falling object into several dangerous falling objects?

      Kind of, but with corporate sponsorship.

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by bob_super on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:27PM (2 children)

      by bob_super (1357) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:27PM (#584040)

      If you hit it just before it re-enters, breaking it into smaller pieces will help them burn, and reduce the chance one of them hits you.
      Intercepting at about 100 km, new debris generated should not stay up very long. Bad luck could cause a shard or twenty to rise back up to LEO, I don't know the odds, but they've gotta be pretty small.

      It would be a good test of missile defense, therefore it won't happen, the same way that we don't try to intercept NK's missiles, just in case we look foolish by missing.

      Final decisions will depend on where this thing looks likely to impact. 70% of the area is deemed safe, and many dry places are don't cares.
      Knowing my luck, I should delay my roof repairs for a little while.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:17PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 19 2017, @01:17PM (#584525)

        Simple solution. Do the test covertly. If it fails, don't tell anyone about it.

      • (Score: 2) by urza9814 on Friday October 20 2017, @01:31PM

        by urza9814 (3954) on Friday October 20 2017, @01:31PM (#585214) Journal

        There's also the liability issue.. that's always a strong force in this country. If a 100kg chunk of space station hits a populated area, that's not gonna be good, but we can just blame the Chinese. If we blow it into 10kg chunks and one of those hits a populated area, that's better, but still probably not great, and now the damage gets blamed on us because we altered the trajectory when we blew the thing up.

    • (Score: 4, Insightful) by frojack on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:59PM

      by frojack (1554) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:59PM (#584053) Journal

      So lets turn a dangerous falling object into several dangerous falling objects?

      Yup, that's the plan. Make most of it burn up in the re-entry rather than having huge chunks landing in un-predictable places. That, and managing the fuel and orbit such that you can use remaining thrusters in order to dump falling stuff into the ocean. Its done this way already.

      Just yesterday a Russian booster was dumped into the Indian ocean. [gulftoday.ae] People were already speculating it could be Tiangong-1 until the adults stepped in.

      I know you meant it derisively, but that is indeed what the US and Russia endeavor to do with equipment that is going to be coming down anyway. Planning for this starts with design of boosters, and the reserve gas for thrusters on board, and continues right into orbit decay.

      --
      No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:35PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:35PM (#584020)

    Since you mentioned NK... What's going to stop idiots (NK) from nuking something like Tiangong-1 in orbit effectively daisy-chaining destruction of everything else in orbit? It'd be the end of space exploration and any gps/weather sat info.

    • (Score: 5, Insightful) by c0lo on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:28PM (1 child)

      by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:28PM (#584041) Journal

      What's going to stop idiots (NK) from nuking something like Tiangong-1 in orbit effectively daisy-chaining destruction of everything else in orbit?

      Hitting a target of hundreds of square kilometres (anywhere withing radius of 15-20km around the centre of a large city is just good enough for a NK hydrogen bomb) and hitting one only tens of square metres as cross section (as the almost empty tube Tiangong-1 is) are two very different kind of things in terms of precision.

      Supplementary, a nuclear explosion in vacuum [nasa.gov] will release the energy mainly as hard radiation, as opposed to pressure wave and thermal radiation in atmospheric condition. Well, yeah, unless you explode the nuke very close to your space target, you'll get some tin sheets exposed to gamma radiation - won't break them apart.

      And last, if "the Kim" is indeed so idiot to attack a chinese spacecraft (even if a junked one), he'll be dead the next day and NK will become a... mmm... Chinese protectorate, with some million-something chinese army stationed there and "defending the NK friendly people against any future idiots from inside or outside". It will be sanctioned by UN and approved... yes... in the interest of stability in the region.

      --
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
      • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:23PM

        by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:23PM (#584069) Journal

        Ah, yes.
        Since the nuke explosion is supposed to take place in LEO (which is inside Earth radiation belts):
        - the radiation emitted towards Earth will produce ionization in the atmosphere
        - the alpha/beta radiation emitted upwards will be trapped by Earth magnetic field (gamma will escape in space)

        I assume the aurorae at both poles will be spectacular. Perhaps, if the epicentre happens to be over populated areas, some transformers in the electrical grid may fry but much less spectacularly than for a full nuke explosion at high altitude [wikipedia.org]

        --
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
  • (Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:58PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @05:58PM (#584028)

    The last thing you want in crowded orbital space is an explosion. The incredible amount of new debris created by that sort of thing is terrible for all of our other satellites. Deorbiting is, by far, the preferable way - even uncontrolled.

    • (Score: 2) by goodie on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:42PM (1 child)

      by goodie (1877) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @06:42PM (#584045) Journal

      True... I should have specified that perhaps there was a way to do it at hte right time. Which would then be very dangerous coming to think of it. Good thing I'm not in control of these kinds of decisions lol

      • (Score: 2) by JNCF on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:00PM

        by JNCF (4317) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:00PM (#584054) Journal

        Eh, as long as the whole fireworks show was live-streamed I wouldn't mind putting you in charge of it.

  • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:29PM (1 child)

    by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 18 2017, @07:29PM (#584077) Journal

    Would they ever think of some sort of autodestruct button

    The autodestruct button would have to trigger something on the line of "start your attitude rockets and... come home, slow and steady... (at first)"
    Problem is, the same rockets are used for maintaining the orbit during the life-time of the station/satellite. Usually, at the de-orbiting moment, the fuel tanks are mostly empty.

    --
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @11:52PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @11:52PM (#584255)

      Salyut 1, Salyut 4, Salyut 6 and Salyut 7 were intentionally deorbited.

  • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @08:05PM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 18 2017, @08:05PM (#584104)

    Would they ever think of some sort of autodestruct button

    It's already been thought of [youtube.com].

    • (Score: 2) by rylyeh on Wednesday October 18 2017, @09:34PM

      by rylyeh (6726) <{kadath} {at} {gmail.com}> on Wednesday October 18 2017, @09:34PM (#584141)

      Exactly!

      --
      "a vast crenulate shell wherein rode the grey and awful form of primal Nodens, Lord of the Great Abyss."
  • (Score: 3, Touché) by MostCynical on Wednesday October 18 2017, @10:51PM

    by MostCynical (2589) on Wednesday October 18 2017, @10:51PM (#584217) Journal

    What, by missing?

    --
    "I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex