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Bob Lutz, former General Motors Vice Chair, opines:
It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era.
The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile.
Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules.
The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.
...
The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.
Is he right? Is the age of the automobile coming to an end?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Webweasel on Monday November 13 2017, @11:42AM (27 children)
For the majority of people, yes this is probably true.
Us pertrol heads will be around for as long as we can afford it. There's no experience better than nailing a corner, feeling the car grip and booting it out of a turn. Eventually we will have to move to electric cars, but so many of us love driving that we won't want an AI car.
Priyom.org Number stations, Russian Military radio. "You are a bad, bad man. Do you have any other virtues?"-Runaway1956
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Monday November 13 2017, @12:20PM (2 children)
If so you wish, I think this can be arranged. Should we start examining the practical details?
(grin)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 2) by MostCynical on Monday November 13 2017, @12:30PM (1 child)
Wait - check what sort of car it is first - don't want to kill some one for the wrong car.
"I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Monday November 13 2017, @01:04PM
Oh, come on! I'm a friendly guy.**
---
** Can't remember the title, it as probably one of those spaghetti-western movies; from which I remember something on the line of "Hey gringo, I kill people for money. But you are my friend, I'll kill you for nothing"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 4, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Monday November 13 2017, @12:46PM (9 children)
I'm fine with moving from petrol to electric - if I could afford $100K+ for a performance electric vehicle I'd already have one, the tech is "out there" but the high performance electric power systems are unreasonably expensive, today.
Giving up human control of the vehicle is the real issue here. Our home is located down a single lane dirt track about 1/4 mile long, shared with 6 other homes. I'd like to see two self-driven cars meet on that and figure out what to do. As for now, Google maps knows the correct GPS coordinates for our home, but doesn't get the routing right - we're closer to a paved street that's inaccessible to us due to privately owned land in-between with two fences, but that's how Google maps tries to route people to our house.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @01:27PM (6 children)
Maybe there's a future when google doesn't own all the maps and you can edit them yourself.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Monday November 13 2017, @01:38PM (2 children)
Google maps are fine when you're in the big city. They become useless out in the less-travelled parts of the country. In the West there are vast tracts with roads that Google maps shows as undifferentiated green or gray.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by crafoo on Monday November 13 2017, @01:57PM
I'm fine with this. It's a pretty good filter.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday November 13 2017, @08:06PM
Or... cities like Jacksonville that are a rural-urban mix. The real problem with Google maps and our house is that the Google mapping car was afraid to drive down our shared driveway, maybe it was the sound of dueling banjoes or maybe it was the rebel flags on the big house, or maybe it just looked too bumpy for them. In any event, since they haven't driven it, it's not a road in their database.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1) by j-beda on Monday November 13 2017, @01:58PM
http://openstreetmap.org/ [openstreetmap.org]
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Monday November 13 2017, @03:39PM (1 child)
Maybe there's a future when google doesn't own all the maps and you can edit them yourself.
I doubt it.
We already have exactly what you're talking about: it's called OpenStreetMap. I hear it's actually pretty popular outside the US, probably mostly in Europe. However, here in the US, no one knows what it is or cares.
You can also edit HERE maps, but how many people use that? Only people with certain nav systems that use HERE.
Also, the problem with things like OSM is that it doesn't provide the other features that things like Google Maps and Waze do: 1) traffic updates, to route you the fastest way taking into account traffic, and 2) a business directory (e.g. I want to go to the nearest Home Depot, but I sure as hell don't know the street address offhand, and I also want to know what its hours are so I don't waste a trip and find they're closed).
Google seems to be the best at providing all that in a single smartphone app, but they're absolutely awful at letting people correct the data. You can file a correction request, and not hear back about it for a year.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @04:00PM
> You can file a correction request, ...
I've filed several, a couple in the suburbs (correcting names) and one in a rural area (dirt road, their "road" was parallel to the actual road, offset about ~100 meters). All were fixed within a few weeks and they sent me a thank-you email for my contributions.
Do you remember any details of what change(s) you requested?
(Score: 1, Redundant) by Runaway1956 on Monday November 13 2017, @04:52PM (1 child)
If your dirt road is like my dirt road, it is actually two lane. Everyone who drives on it feels compelled to drive right down the center of the road, for poorly understood reasons like, "the ride is smoother" or "don't want to scratch the car on the limbs sticking out". A trip or three up and down the road with a weed eater takes care of the scratching nonsense. And, if the full width of the road is actually used, the county employee who grades the road will actually grade the width of the road. Personally, I use one lane when I come home, and I use the other lane when I leave home. Pretty much everyone else only sees on lane, right in the middle.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday November 13 2017, @08:22PM
Ours is right at 10' wide, dirt tracks with grass on either side and down the middle... half of it is a bit wider, maybe 18-20', but that's quasi-paved and bumpy. There are places where you can pull into the grass to get past each other, turnouts into driveways, and spots where somebody is just going to have to back up.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 4, Touché) by stormreaver on Monday November 13 2017, @02:04PM (6 children)
This is an excellent argument for legally mandated autonomous vehicles, and for legislating human drivers off the road.
(Score: 2) by acid andy on Monday November 13 2017, @03:57PM (1 child)
It all depends on whether they have a clear view of an empty road beyond the corner. It's a shame that too few drivers seem to bother to make this distinction.
If a cat has kittens, does a rat have rittens, a bat bittens and a mat mittens?
(Score: 2) by stormreaver on Monday November 13 2017, @06:04PM
That is entirely irrelevant. There are hundreds of unforeseeable circumstance that make that a very bad idea.
It's a shame that there are still people who think such a distinction matters. People need to get their thrills in ways that don't put others (or their property) at risk.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @06:12PM
Autonomous cars can drift really well. A university actually tried it for parallel parking. The car would parallel park facing the opposite direction by drifting into the spot. The rear of the car would swing around, the car would go sort of backwards and sideways while skidding, and finally the car would perfectly slip into the parking spot.
I'd pay for that!
Instead we get cars that drive slower than my grandpa, puttering along below the speed limit and never bending a rule even a tiny bit.
(Score: 2) by Virindi on Monday November 13 2017, @08:13PM (1 child)
When I read this I pictured a track or private property...
It seems a bit unreasonable to force casual racers to have two cars (one for racing and one for regular roads), when they could just have one.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @02:58AM
Nobody's forcing you to do that.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @08:02PM
and yours is why we need more dead politicians.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @02:21PM (2 children)
The Autoextremist commented on the Lutz article,
http://www.autoextremist.com/current/2017/11/7/the-lingering-interregnum.html [autoextremist.com]
I thought his title was suitably SF-like-- "THE LINGERING INTERREGNUM"
He then goes back to some items of current concern, such as the return of subprime financing and 72 month car loans. This is usually a sign that new car/truck sales have peaked and the managers are just trying to keep the sales numbers high for a little longer. The market for new vehicles is probably near the bust part of the typical boom-bust cycle.
He signs off with,
(Score: 2) by takyon on Monday November 13 2017, @03:26PM (1 child)
There are a lot of deaths due to car accidents and the technology is ready to the point where it can be driven in traffic. I doubt we will have to wait a lifetime to see some adoption. They won't be popular in rural areas though.
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @04:07PM
I'd argue the opposite, given the size of the system, there are very few highway deaths. Think about how much time people spend in hospitals (many less hours than most spend in cars)...and compare to deaths from getting a hospital-infection that you didn't have when you went in for some other problem.
Further, note that you can greatly improve your odds on the highway if you desire--just don't drive when impaired or distracted.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @04:23PM
No one cares. Really. Because 99% of people don't care. Which means only 1% of you petrol heads will be left, which doesn't matter, really. You can continue to drive as long as you drive safely. The comments made were about the other 99% who will pick the convenient, cheaper option to get from point A to point B.
You should only do this in one place - on the track, where if you fuck up, it's not innocent bystanders that can get hurt.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by DannyB on Monday November 13 2017, @04:47PM
You seem to be mixing the petrol vs electric with self-driven / human-driven.
You might have a superior experience in electric cars that have higher torque than a fossil fueled vehicle.
You want to be able to drive your vehicle manually. Some people enjoy shooting firearms. Or smoking. Or listening to Justin Bieber. There are designated places where such activities can be safely conducted without endangering everyone else. As long as there is a market for it, safe spaces will be created where people can drive vehicles.
Some people want to drive very fast. (manual driving, that is) There are tracks where that can be done.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @04:49PM (1 child)
"Siri, I wish to experience farfegnugen. Please turn the next corner in an exciting manner."
Siri: "Sorry, Dave, I cannot do that."
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Monday November 13 2017, @08:42PM
Alexa: If you want an exciting ride, go to Disney World.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.