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Automation could wipe out 375-800 million jobs globally in the next 13 years, including 16-54 million in the U.S. But don't worry, there's a new job waiting for you:
The McKinsey Global Institute cautions that as many as 375 million workers will need to switch occupational categories by 2030 due to automation.
[...] "The model where people go to school for the first 20 years of life and work for the next 40 or 50 years is broken," Susan Lund, a partner for the McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report, told CNN Tech. "We're going to have to think about learning and training throughout the course of your career."
[...] "The dire predictions that robots are taking our jobs are overblown," Lund said. "Yes, work will be automated, [but] there will be enough jobs for everyone in most areas." The authors don't expect automation will displace jobs involving managing people, social interactions or applying expertise. Gardeners, plumbers, child and elder-care workers are among those facing less risk from automation.
Also at Bloomberg.
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Thursday November 30 2017, @05:30PM (7 children)
A diesel truck mechanic describing his belief that he and fellow mechanics will be out of a job in ten to fifteen years if the Tesla truck becomes predominant. No transmission. No oil changes. Nuclear explosion proof windshield. No engine work. No broken cooling hoses. Maybe tire replacements. Possibly greaseless wheels not requiring lube. He also expressed the idea that EVs might similarly imperil auto mechanics jobs. He was excited about the tech, but realistic about the future.
He's wrong.
First off, broken cooling hoses are absolutely a possibility, at least with Teslas, and probably other EVs too. Teslas have liquid-cooled motors and (liquid-heated) battery packs. It's not as convoluted as a gas engine's cooling system with its myriad hoses, but there's still some hoses there which will fail after enough time.
Tires on EVs are no different than tires on other vehicles, so the tire technicians' jobs aren't going anywhere soon.
"Greaseless wheels"? Nothing about the wheels, or even the axles, is different with EVs. We've had "sealed bearings" in cars for ages. I don't know about big diesel trucks though; perhaps those retained grease fittings to get better service life in exchange for more maintenance. Regardless, there's nothing about electric motors than makes this different.
There's no multi-speed transmission on a typical EV, but there usually is a single-speed gearbox, with oil, which means oil changes.
Basically, this guy is an idiot who hasn't bothered to learn anything about EVs. Electric cars and trucks will indeed mean less work for mechanics, but that doesn't mean *no* work. A lot of things aren't any different (esp. tires), some are almost the same (e.g. brakes, but on EVs the friction brakes aren't used as much because of regen braking), and other things will still need some service, even though it's less than for current vehicles.
And of course, software developers perpetually believe they cannot be replaced. No weigh ever.
A lot of software jobs are already done by people in other fields (i.e., they don't have CS degrees), who use software to do their work. There's tons of scientists who've taught themselves Python to do data analysis for instance. Eventually, almost all software will be auto-coded somehow or written in a very high-level language by people to do their work, just like how any engineer who writes a technical paper uses English, even though he doesn't have a degree in English composition or writing, and hasn't gotten any special training in using a word processor.
(Score: 2) by mhajicek on Thursday November 30 2017, @07:41PM (6 children)
The Tesla trucks have a motor per wheel, no gearbox. Ceramic bearings need no lube, don't know if Tesla is using them though.
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Thursday November 30 2017, @08:55PM (4 children)
Interesting; I'm only familiar with the mechanicals of their cars, not the trucks that are still in the prototype stage. Wheel motors have been proposed for a long time for electric cars, but real-world cars don't use them because they're a terrible idea: they're really heavy, and the last thing you want in a car is heavy wheels, as it gives you crappy handling and ride quality. If they ever figure out how to make them lightweight, this could change, but for now electric cars have motors mounted on the body, with axles going to the drive wheels, just like any gas engine car.
The truck could be different because ride quality isn't so important on semi-trucks, and those things are extremely stiffly sprung on the drive wheels anyway.
As for ceramic bearings, that again is something where it doesn't matter if your motive source is electric or fossil fuel. Are they used in mainstream cars or commercial trucks? Not that I've ever heard of.
(Score: 2) by LoRdTAW on Friday December 01 2017, @02:17AM (3 children)
Not only that but think about what a shock absorber is and which end you want to be on. Yup, the end that isn't being shocked. Do you want that part to contain motors? Think about a motor and then think about it slamming down into a big city pothole smashing the wheel end and possibly destroying the motor.
Honestly, I was expecting to see a motor driving a standard single drive axle while a lifting/steering tag axle follows. That's pretty standard in Europe with 44t limits and some NA carriers.
(Score: 2) by mhajicek on Friday December 01 2017, @06:14AM (2 children)
I must have misinterpreted something I read somewhere. While the Tesla truck is using a motor per wheel, it does have gearboxes and driven axles:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-four-motor-drivetrain-gearbox/ [teslarati.com]
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Friday December 01 2017, @04:15PM
Aha! That does make a lot more sense.
They do tout the benefits of 4 independent motors here, but I really wonder if it makes that much sense, and wouldn't do better with 2 larger motors (is jackknifing really that much of a problem?). However, there's a good engineering reason to use 4: they're just reusing the existing Model S motors, instead of having to make special motors just for the truck, and taking advantage of production efficiencies and the lack of need to do development for a new motor.
(Score: 2) by LoRdTAW on Friday December 01 2017, @09:13PM
Now that's wonky. I see these motor-axles being a weak link in the truck. This is a standard 6x4 axle setup where the drive axles are custom made with a super wide differential housing where they mount two opposing model s motors and associated gearing. The axle is on the wheel side of the suspension and shock absorbers so it's going to take a lot of punishment.
*BUT* I can see why they did this: path of least resistance. They saved a ton of money, time, and effort building the truck's drive-line and chassis by going this route. The axle design is the same as a standard heavy truck axle save for the wider diff housing. That way they can use standard wheel end hardware, brake, and most important of all: suspension components. They also get to use a standard chassis and avoid building custom motors or other crazy axle setups.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Friday December 01 2017, @03:09PM
My understanding is that Tesla cars have a fixed gearbox between the motor and the wheels. It is not an adjustable transmission. But a permanently fixed gear ratio.
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