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posted by martyb on Thursday November 30 2017, @03:59PM   Printer-friendly
from the become-a-plumber dept.

Automation could wipe out 375-800 million jobs globally in the next 13 years, including 16-54 million in the U.S. But don't worry, there's a new job waiting for you:

The McKinsey Global Institute cautions that as many as 375 million workers will need to switch occupational categories by 2030 due to automation.

[...] "The model where people go to school for the first 20 years of life and work for the next 40 or 50 years is broken," Susan Lund, a partner for the McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report, told CNN Tech. "We're going to have to think about learning and training throughout the course of your career."

[...] "The dire predictions that robots are taking our jobs are overblown," Lund said. "Yes, work will be automated, [but] there will be enough jobs for everyone in most areas." The authors don't expect automation will displace jobs involving managing people, social interactions or applying expertise. Gardeners, plumbers, child and elder-care workers are among those facing less risk from automation.

Also at Bloomberg.


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  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday December 01 2017, @04:02PM

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday December 01 2017, @04:02PM (#603942) Journal

    That only holds as long as human agency is involved. Once AI comes into the picture, humanity falls off the economic cliff. That's if the AI decides it wants to continue to do things that serve humans. If it decides humans are competition for limited resources, then we're really in the soup.

    Human agency never went away.

    So, yes, up until the last human is removed from the chain of production

    I guess you missed my bit about humans setting up their alternate economies when that happens.

    Bullets are not infinite

    But there are already vastly more bullets in the world than would be needed to kill all seven billion people. Such a conflict will depend on a lot of things, but in theory, killbots would lose in the short term and win in the long term due to greater human numbers at first, and a faster production and training cycle for killbots later.

    Maybe the best path for humanity is not that one. Maybe de-humanizing for the purposes of control is not a sustainable progression. Maybe it would be better for everybody to comport ourselves in a way as a global society that brings out the best in everyone. That might be a lofty goal and in all likelihood impossible to fully realize, but isn't it a better star to navigate by than the one we have been?

    No, because people who don't play by those rules can win big. It's a lot easy to discourage killbot army creation, if there are huge negative consequences to doing so, like your factory becomes a smoking hole in the ground. But that means not being nice on occasion.