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Full moons and particularly "supermoons" have been linked to increased deaths of motorcyclists:
Distracted drivers, like those who text behind the wheel, are a danger to themselves and to others. Even a brief, momentary glance away from the road can result in life-threatening consequences.
Research published Dec. 11 in The BMJ [open, DOI: 10.1136/bmj.j5367] [DX] points toward another potential distraction for motorists: the full moon, gracing the sky with its brightness around 12 times a year, and the dazzling supermoon, which comes into focus around once a year.
The researchers found that on nights illuminated by a full moon, fatal motorcycle accidents increased by 5 percent compared to nights without a full moon. On evenings when the supermoon decorated the sky, this increased to 32 percent. The study included data from the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.
While this observational data cannot prove any firm conclusions, the researchers warn drivers of the risks of seemingly minor distractions, urging constant attention while driving at all times.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Virindi on Wednesday December 13 2017, @08:57AM (6 children)
It seems likely that during a bright night, more people are out on their motorcycle.
Do nice temperature days also cause motorcycle accidents?
A quick look at the paper reveals no data considered about the number of people out riding in various conditions, just the number of accidents. Yet the paper is packed with fluff about how dangerous motorcycles are and how distractions are a serious threat...
A lot of fluff, for something so obvious overlooked. Maybe I am missing something?
(Score: 5, Insightful) by MostCynical on Wednesday December 13 2017, @09:05AM (2 children)
Yes, like the drivers who hit things they didn't see..if only they had missed.
Corellation is not causation.
Full moons on clear nights are likely far more distracting, or maybe partially cloudy nights, where you get glimpses of the moon..
Sunny weekdays are dangerous as mkre old people are prepared to drive when they know it won't rain - which is also when motorcycles are more likely to be out.
Ho many of the vehicles that caused the accidents were driven by: old people, people on the phone, texting, etc etc.
No, it was the mooon!
"I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
(Score: 2) by tfried on Wednesday December 13 2017, @11:29AM (1 child)
Well the summary does not state it, explicitly, but they did not look at weather data at all. Astronomical moon phase is the only factor under consideration. I do not see too plausible an explanation why you'd expect a higher rate of "old people, people on the phone, texting" on the roads in full moon nights.
That said, I do see a plausible explanation, why you'd expect to see more motorcyclists out on full moon nights, and I concur, that puts a pretty large question mark behind those results. As a minimal check, it should not have been too hard to obtain total registered road accident numbers (all vehicles, all outcomes), and compare with those. If that does not show a similarly trend, then the results as published are very likely just ... a distraction.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday December 14 2017, @03:29AM
I'd speculate that the opposite is true. Full moons reduce the chance of accidents, but more people drive motorcycles during this time due to more favorable driving conditions.
It's kind of like how people stop driving when road conditions get poor. For example, snow in the south. There might be less accidents in some areas, but not because the roads are safer, but rather because much less people are driving due to the unsafety.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by theluggage on Wednesday December 13 2017, @11:02AM (1 child)
Also, during the winter months, clear nights are pretty strongly correlated with sub-zero temperatures, and hence icy roads.
(Score: 2) by tfried on Wednesday December 13 2017, @11:18AM
Note that they looked at the astronomical data, only, and did not factor in weather at all. (Not obvious from the summary)
(Score: 2) by frojack on Wednesday December 13 2017, @09:23PM
Exactly. They didn't even check for the cause of accident before they started blaming cell phones.
In fact I wonder if they even checked the weather to see if the moon was visible. I'm betting not.
Junk Science. Yet you can bet it will be quoted for years to come.
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