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Fred Reed's mathematical analysis of Trump's Wall proves that Trump is insincere, proves that Trump is mathematically incompetent, and earns Fred Reed an honorary nerd card:
https://fredoneverything.org/the-wall-the-sound-and-the-fury-and-not-much-else/
More math!
~childo
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Trump's Wall Is Mathematically Unlikely
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If the thunder don't get you, then the lightning will.
(Score: 4, Informative) by maxwell demon on Sunday January 07 2018, @07:32AM (32 children)
Really? What exactly is the cost of illegal immigrants? And did you factor in the economic benefit from the work they do?
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by fishybell on Sunday January 07 2018, @07:37AM (15 children)
Illegal immigrants do cost money, but they're not all created equal. Those with a higher education earn more and pay more taxes than they get out of it (social security, medicare, sales taxes, property taxes, etc.). Those with a lower education earn less and cost more taxes (mostly in public education).
Overall though, they end up costing less than people who have the same education and earnings over their lifetime because of the massive cost of social security and medicare that they don't receive.
They may not be free, but they're a good bargain.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @07:45AM (9 children)
I've seen lots of studies that shows they are a net benefit, lacking fully legal status they actually are less able to get any social benefits.
(Score: 0, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @07:49AM
Man says "Ughy..." after he finishes raping toddler. Most ethical rapist?
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Sunday January 07 2018, @08:08AM (7 children)
Oh, there are lots of studies, on both sides. Left wingers dismiss costs like uninsured aliens making use of emergency rooms and other medical services. Right wingers count all of that kind of stuff - welfare benefits, identity theft, crime, and more. You can cherry pick ten, a hundred, a thousand illegal aliens, and demonstrate that they are a net gain to society. Your cherry picked crowd of illegals will only include those who have never committed a crime, never committed tax fraud, never been to court even for non-criminal offenses. Hell, you can cherry pick from any demographic, to demonstrate that that particular demographic is composed of people who are just FAHbulous!
The fact is, California is awash in illegals who cost the state money - mostly in medical expenses. The taxes paid by the illegals aren't nearly enough to pay for the medical expenses.
Study all you like - but if you're going to be serious, you need to account for all costs.
Now, once the studies are all done, we come around full circle. Illegals are illegal because they have nothing but contempt for the law. They violated immigration laws, they violate labor laws, they violate tax laws routinely, all across the demographic. SOME OF THEM violate much more serious laws. In fact, enough of them violate serious laws that - "In California and other border states, specialists warn that the number of illegal immigrants in jail could jeopardize the local prison system." http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-13201212 [bbc.com]
Go ahead, cite some studies. But, don't cite left wing studies that focus only on those model citizens whose only crimes have been crossing the border illegally. Use nation wide figures, or use a border state, and give us all of the information. No, don't go to someplace like Montana that is basically unaffected by immigration. National or border state figures, please. Or, at the least, use those states that have borders with the border states - Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, and Nevada.
Fact is, illegals live in a shadow world, that few legal citizens know about. And, crime loves the shadows. Hey, the victims are often detrimental as well. How many crimes go unreported, just because the victim is an illegal? That includes extortion, kidnap, rape, murder, blackmail, child trafficking, sex slavery - the entire gamut of crime. It's all in the shadows, because NO ONE wants to report the crime.
Studies. Want serious studies? Get out there, into the illegal alien communities, and live with them. You'll meet some admirable people - and you'll meet the scum of the earth. And both kinds of people help to perpetuate the shadow culture.
Studies. Go do a real study. Ultimately, the shadow culture is detrimental to a civilized society. It is probably as damaging to society as the military industrial complex is. If not, it runs a pretty close second.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @07:26PM (1 child)
If we're going to do a tally, can we also tally up all the American's who are drains on the system or are criminals?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Sunday January 07 2018, @09:14PM
Tally away, I don't care. But there is a huge difference between illegal aliens, and citizens. That is, we owe nothing to the illegals, and we can boot them anytime we decide we have the balls to do it. Citizens, on the other hand, are our responsibility, for good or bad. We cannot deport a citizen. And, if we were to do so, where in hell would we send them? To Antarctica? Mars? Alpha Centauri? See, Mexico is responsible for their citizens, and we are responsible for our own.
I suspect that if we DID deport our worst citizens to Mexico, those citizens would soon be assuming room temperature. It would all be extrajudicial, of course. Mexico doesn't have a death penalty, so officially, the government could wash their hands of the entire affair. But, those citizens would be dead, dead, dead.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by dry on Monday January 08 2018, @02:29AM (1 child)
What about all the people who facilitate these illegals? My understanding is that Americans encourage them by giving them jobs and that is why they cross the border illegally. Is it legal to hire illegals down there? Perhaps if there were no jobs for them, they wouldn't be crossing the borders in such numbers?
For a country that happily locks up millions of citizens, it shouldn't be a problem to lock up anyone who hires an illegal. Could probably just hang out somewhere like Home Hardware with some fake illegals and start busting these people with no respect for the law and no respect for your country. Seems a worse offence to encourage people to sneak into your country compared to being hungry and responding to job offers.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Monday January 08 2018, @04:25AM
Your understanding is correct. There is an unfortunate coincidence here, however. Those people who have jobs to offer, also have money. Money talks, and bullshit walks. A little bribe money here - errr, whooops, I meant "campaign contribution" and another "contribution" there, and the SOB's are all but untouchable.
(Score: 1) by rylyeh on Monday January 08 2018, @05:29AM (2 children)
Um, If there were no employers - would the 'illegals' be here? Has it not been the practice of U.S. businesses to seasonally employ these people? Because California? Texas? Washington state?
"a vast crenulate shell wherein rode the grey and awful form of primal Nodens, Lord of the Great Abyss."
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Monday January 08 2018, @08:09AM (1 child)
Please see my reply to Dry, just above. People who are bribing officials to look the other way get away with it. I'm all for burning the employers. If I put bait out to attract any creature, I can't complain that the creatures are in my yard. Offer enough bait, and I could be persuaded to move into a city. Those illegals are just the same. So, yes, the employers should be going to prison, and the illegals should be headed back to Mexico. Actually, the illegals get the better end of that scheme. I don't want to imprison them - they'll be free men and women, as soon as they step across the border.
(Score: 1) by rylyeh on Tuesday January 09 2018, @05:12AM
I agree completely. 📣
"a vast crenulate shell wherein rode the grey and awful form of primal Nodens, Lord of the Great Abyss."
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @08:03AM (4 children)
We're looking at a net cost (gain minus loss) of about $10,000 per illegal alien per year.
The fact that there might be a few financially beneficial people among these lawbreakers does nothing to change the fact that the average illegal alien is a loss for our country.
They get quite a bit of welfare. Part of this comes via identity theft, which is the norm for illegal aliens. (maybe YOUR identity) Part of it comes via state agencies that don't ask about citizenship or don't require any proof. Part of it comes via children; have a baby and then your whole family gets benefits.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @07:28PM (3 children)
Care to cite some sources?
Again, would love to see your sources
Oh, never mind, I don't need to see your sources anymore, you clearly don't know anything about this subject. Have a nice day!
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Sunday January 07 2018, @09:28PM (2 children)
You're not very bright, are you? The identity theft you scoff at is very real. I see it. I hear it. I was pretty much unaware of what was going on, until one of our guys took two week's vacation, went home to Mexico, and came back with a different name, a different social security number, and demanded that everyone address him by his new name. His new Anglo name. After this one individual made me aware of the process, I've watched several others do the same. One woman, who I was near certain was legal, took her vacation, went home to show off her new baby girl to her relatives, and SHE came back with a new name, new SSN - the works. These are people I work with, people I talk to every day, some of whom I actually LIKE! But, they are identity thieves.
Oh - one of those identity thieves was awfully amusing. His weekly take home pay was normally something over $500. After he came back from vacation, everything was cool, for about five weeks. Then, he got a pay check for about $75. The SSN he was using, belonged to some deadbeat dad in Alabama. Somehow, Alabama found that the SSN was showing an income, so they asked Arkansas to garnish the wages for child support. Of course, the company complied with the request or order. Our Mexican took a week off, and came back with yet another SSN.
Don't even try to play that game. Identity theft is a real thing, and it is pretty much routine for the illegal community. It takes a week or so to get it done, but if you've got the money, you can get it done.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by dry on Monday January 08 2018, @02:36AM
This is happening at your work? And the owners of the business haven't been thrown in jail for knowingly employing people who change their identity regularly? I think your country has bigger problems then illegals.
(Score: 2) by jmorris on Monday January 08 2018, @03:21AM
Document everything (on the downlow of course) and call 1-866-DHS-2ICE from a burner. Report back with whether Trump's ICE is really enforcing the law. Do it for America!
(Score: 5, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @07:49AM (13 children)
From https://amac.us/illegal-immigration-cost-1/ [amac.us] we have this:
"In 2010, the average unlawful immigrant household received around $24,721 in government benefits and services while paying some $10,334 in taxes."
From https://fairus.org/issue/publications-resources/fiscal-burden-illegal-immigration-united-states-taxpayers [fairus.org] we have this:
Cost is $135 billion, taxes paid are $19 billion, net loss is $116 billion.
To me that looks like roughly $1000 per legit household. Imagine knocking $1000 off your taxes.
Let's consider something else though, which a liberal ought to care about: the effect on poor Americans. Wouldn't you like a living wage? Illegal aliens drive wages down, putting many Americans out of work. Wages rise when immigration laws get enforced. The effect is particularly strong for black people ("people of color" today?) because they are often the first to be laid off and the last to be hired. Illegal aliens hurt black people.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @08:24AM (6 children)
So, uh... punish employers who hire illegal immigrants. That solves pretty much all of the problems, and has no unethical downsides.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @10:05AM (5 children)
Yeah but they are too-big-to-fail. You know, it's always the little guys fault.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by maxwell demon on Sunday January 07 2018, @10:47AM (4 children)
The goal of the punishment should not be to make them fail. The goal should be to make illegal employment more expensive than legal employment.
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @05:37PM
It's a fundamental part of running a business to weigh RISK and COSTs over a planned period of time. Breaking the law for MANY corporations is NO different for them to consider than the 1000s of other decisions that must be made. It's so easy to treat legality like any other business factor; same with morality... That is how corporations and how we structure them promotes people who might not be evil individually to do far more immoral and/or illegal things by proxy.
Corporate punishments NEED TO BE FAR MORE SEVERE than individual punishments. A corporation not wishing to collapse will evaluate a severe COST and it's risk accordingly. If they know they won't have a high COST, they'll not even care about the RISK - it can be treated like a TAX... except it's a tax you ONLY pay on the rare occasion you get "assessed" (caught) and you can often negotiate it down lower, unlike a tax.
We NEVER have a shortage of people for management; they are supposed to be paid more for having more responsibility--- but they do not have actual responsibility; culturally, there was a weak implied social contract. We MUST stop viewing them as high priests who magically produce jobs and at least treat them on par with lawyers... if not lower. If they go to jail, that responsibility would justify their salary. The implied social contract that they protect our jobs, our company, our economy-- no longer exists and it wasn't great to begin with. They lack of ANY constraints is why it progressed downhill and continues to do so... especially as they find it easier to remove themselves from the culture in which they are symbiotic parasites. (they are... think about it... they are in it for greed and we want to benefit from that... but the symbiotic relationship is getting way too imbalanced. welcome to the 2nd gilded age.)
(Score: 3, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Sunday January 07 2018, @06:11PM (2 children)
When you make illegal employment more expensive than legal employment (to the employers) then you hurt business - drive up the cost of goods, diminish our competitiveness in world markets, slow the flow of export (and domestic) dollars into the hands of the big business owners - and then they can't trickle it down...
If they really wanted to stop illegal employment, they'd start by putting real enforcement and penalties on businesses that do it - but that's not the kind of thing that real politicians do.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @11:40PM (1 child)
Sure. And when you use fines to to make illegal driving more expensive then legal driving then you hurt motorists, and when you use some FDA regulation to make illegal pesticides more expensive then legal pesticides then you hurt farmers, and when you require that surgeons go through some pesky training before operating on someone then you hurt those poor doctors.
But not as much as you hurt the public in general if you don't have or enforce those rules. Why should it be any different for employment?
(Score: 4, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Monday January 08 2018, @12:34AM
Didn't you get the memo? Government has been bought and paid for by business; it now exists to protect business interests first and foremost - all other benefits to the electorate trickle down from a thriving, maximally profitable business sector.
Illegal driving kills people, and frightens many more - dead and frightened consumers are bad for business.
Illegal pesticides kill people too, same principle: dead consumers spend no more.
"Training" doctors is a whole other kettle of fish - now we're talking about throttling supply so that demand spikes to maximize payouts. Medical is a unique field in that people will pay virtually anything to avoid dying, so you want to make sure that doctors are just expensive enough to bankrupt the median family assets when someone dies so as to maximize that flow of capital out of the hands of the families and into the active economy via the luxury cars, real estate, travel and other things that the physicians and hospital investors will purchase with dying people's money.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 5, Informative) by tonyPick on Sunday January 07 2018, @10:39AM (3 children)
Except that there are many problems with the way FAIR constructs it's estimates amongst other things:
and
and
and
But to return to your point....
You think spending tens of billions of dollars on something which will mainly increase the purchase of 31 foot sections of Rope in Mexico will somehow help poor Americans?
(Score: 4, Informative) by tonyPick on Sunday January 07 2018, @10:46AM (2 children)
Bah :missing link for source reporting in the above [politifact.com]
(Score: 2, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @10:56AM (1 child)
Politifact is about as biased as can be. It's one of those dishonest "fact checker" sites that the democrats cooked up as a tactic for spreading disinformation.
The moment you take politifact seriously, you are discredited.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday January 07 2018, @01:59PM
Translation: "Everything politifact says is true, it just contradicts my worldview and all the cult propaganda I have been fed. It hurts my feelings!"
(Score: 5, Informative) by bzipitidoo on Sunday January 07 2018, @11:23AM
Hate the numbers? No. Accurate and honest numbers are to be respected no matter what good or bad news they bring. That's a stance the Right has entirely too much trouble understanding and accepting.
Clearly AMAC is highly partisan. They are anti-abortion (spinning that position as "pro-life" of course) but pro-gun and against Obamacare. A typical contradiction. I wouldn't trust their numbers. A common trick I've seen conservatives pull is to claim the poor don't pay much in taxes, using only the _income_ tax and not counting all the sales taxes and other taxes everyone pays. In recent decades, the political Right has demonstrated over and over that they are insincere, lying, cheating idiots who really seem to think facts do not matter. They have no credibility.
I couldn't tell with a quick look whether FAIR is another propaganda organ.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday January 07 2018, @05:48PM
No, your numbers above indicate cost is around $45 billion ($24k cost per). The $116 billion would need to including the similar level of benefits, which are going to be more than just taxes paid.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Sunday January 07 2018, @01:48PM
Political accounting will back up whatever the speaker wants to say...
Truth is, nobody knows the net economic impact of illegal immigrants - not really. They can tally up the cost of police actions against them, but what amount of that was a sunk cost that would have been spent anyway with, or without illegals? Is Trump really trying to put all those law enforcement officers out of work? When they are out of work, will they themselves turn to petty crimes to feed their family? Or, maybe they can retrain to work in road and wall maintenance? Somehow, I doubt they would have gone into law enforcement in the first place if they would rather have been working construction.
It's like building a road? Yes, yes indeed, the cost is similar, but inevitably higher - there will have to be some sort of road built just to get the construction crews and materials to and from the site, and the road will have to be maintained so crews can maintain and patrol the wall. The difference about this road is that it serves no other purpose, so its construction and maintenance is a 100% sunk cost with no ROI other than more effective blockade of border crossings on that frontier. Clue: if people and goods can't cross there, they will cross elsewhere, so any arguments about interdiction cannot use the entire number of crossings along the wall frontier, because a significant portion of those crossings will happen elsewhere after the wall is built.
Maybe that border road can be built up to highway standards and used like other highways to move goods - increasing commerce, building up the economies of the border towns? Oh, wait - what will the net impact of more and bigger border towns be on immigration control?
I think of it like GWII, WMDs be damned, winning, losing, who cares... do we want to be the assholes invading another country bringing mayhem, chaos and death, or not? Similarly with "the wall" - are we that afraid of Mexico that we need to build the next Great Wall of China to repel the invading hordes? It's not an image of strength in my mind.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2, Interesting) by realDonaldTrump on Sunday January 07 2018, @06:06PM
They cost Kate Steinle her life! Disgraceful verdict in that case. They're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime, they're rapists. Believe me, they treat women like shit. No wonder the people of our Country are so angry with Illegal Immigration.