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posted by janrinok on Tuesday February 13 2018, @03:17AM   Printer-friendly
from the I-guess-so dept.

An increasing number of businesses invest in advanced technologies that can help them forecast the future of their workforce and gain a competitive advantage. Many analysts and professional practitioners believe that, with enough data, algorithms embedded in People Analytics (PA) applications can predict all aspects of employee behavior: from productivity, to engagement, to interactions and emotional states.

Predictive analytics powered by algorithms are designed to help managers make decisions that favourably impact the bottom line. The global market for this technology is expected to grow from US$3.9 billion in 2016 to US$14.9 billion by 2023.

Despite the promise, predictive algorithms are as mythical as the crystal ball of ancient times.

[...] To manage effectively and develop their knowledge of current and likely organisational events, managers need to learn to build and trust their instinctual awareness of emerging processes rather than rely on algorithmic promises that cannot be realised. The key to effective decision-making is not algorithmic calculations but intuition.

https://theconversation.com/predictive-algorithms-are-no-better-at-telling-the-future-than-a-crystal-ball-91329

What do you people think about predictive algorithms ? Mumbo jumbo or ??


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  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by anubi on Tuesday February 13 2018, @08:12AM (5 children)

    by anubi (2828) on Tuesday February 13 2018, @08:12AM (#637046) Journal

    I read a nice book James Gleick wrote [amazon.com] years ago... its on Chaos theory.

    My take on it is he has the right idea... you may define the boundaries with statistical analyses, and probabilities, but exact predictions are damn near impossible. Prime examples being the weather or the stock market.

    I've noted during the past that the people that projected high levels of knowledge of the stock market were likely the wrongest when TSHTF. But then, they were presenters, not knowers. And Presentation is 100% of the game when it comes to coaxing people to invest.

    This faith-based stuff drives me nuts. I want something that follows LAW, not hopes and whims. That's why I went into engineering. I feel much more comfortable knowing how my stuff works, instead of just hoping it won't break.

    --
    "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 13 2018, @10:19AM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 13 2018, @10:19AM (#637060)

    I predict, that Dow Jones index will hit 100,000 by 2030.

    Yes, will happen. Doesn't mean exactly when.

    • (Score: 1) by anubi on Tuesday February 13 2018, @10:45AM (2 children)

      by anubi (2828) on Tuesday February 13 2018, @10:45AM (#637063) Journal

      Providing the world still values a USDollar.

      I believe our financial system - so encumbered by debt - is quite unstable and apt to topple.

      I also believe the only reason the USD is still viable, is the banking elite are counting on the United States Military to enforce any claims they may wish to enforce around the world, as holding title does not do much good unless you have the ability to inflict pain to enforce your claim to rents due. Otherwise, your debtor will take your stuff and just laugh at you if you are not backed up by the power to hurt.

      If you don't have the power to hold onto it, you can not own *anything*. You either have to have the local power to enforce your claim, or have some agent working in your behalf to enforce your claim for you. AKA "Civilization".

      The whole world in in debt to the bankers - thanks to usury and fractional reserve banking. And yes, the USA *is* the "world police", enforcing the claims of the Bankers. That is the only reason I can see that the USA is so "fortunate". WWII. We won. We have the bomb and the means to deliver.

      Although we have a concept of "Eminent Domain", that's only used against the little people who don't have the resources to fight back.

      And besides, who is to say that Elon Musk is doing good stuff with his resources - and should be left alone - or even given more, while George Soros is nothing but a leech and should have his assets confiscated?

      --
      "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
      • (Score: 3, Interesting) by PiMuNu on Tuesday February 13 2018, @01:56PM

        by PiMuNu (3823) on Tuesday February 13 2018, @01:56PM (#637103)

        > Providing the world still values a USDollar.

        Just for reference, this is how Britain operated during 19th Century, based on debts of foreign powers to UK built up during 18th century and Napoleonic wars. With the added requirement that world trade *had* to operate out of UK ports, enforced by superior military tech (gunboats) and a surprisingly small standing army.

      • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Tuesday February 13 2018, @09:43PM

        by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Tuesday February 13 2018, @09:43PM (#637277) Homepage
        > Providing the world still values a USDollar.

        If the dollar were to plunge in value, and the worthless make-nothing-useful companies were to pop like balloons, what would you imagine would happen to the DJIA? The core fundamental businesses that make America work would still be valued, but the dollar would be less, so their share price might rocket. And therefore so would the DJIA, being a weighted mean of share prices - *measured in now worthless dollars*.

        Part of the recent SP500/DJIA growth in the last year is because Trump's tanked the dollar by 20% http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=EUR&to=USD&amount=1 . Check GOLD and SILVER too - magically increasing in value in USD whilst slowly fading in GBP, EUR, JPY, CHF, ...
        --
        Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
  • (Score: 2) by TheRaven on Tuesday February 13 2018, @10:24AM

    by TheRaven (270) on Tuesday February 13 2018, @10:24AM (#637061) Journal

    Weather is a nice example. You can predict the weather with around 60% accuracy by saying today will be the same as yesterday. You can also predict it with around 60% accuracy by saying that it will be the same as precisely one year ago. Combining these two techniques doesn't get you more than about 65% accuracy. Doubling the amount of compute that you throw at the models gives you less than a linear increase in complexity.

    You see this kind of diminishing returns in a lot of things. You can get around 90% accuracy from a trivial 4-state branch predictor and around 95% accuracy from the kind that we make students implement as an exercise. With a modern pipeline, you need to predict about 25 branches into the future to keep the pipeline full, so a 95% accurate predictor gives you only a 35% probability of keeping the pipeline full. Going from 90% to 95% was quite easy, going from 95% to 97% is really hard and still gives you only around a 50% chance of keeping the pipeline full.

    --
    sudo mod me up