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posted by takyon on Wednesday February 14 2018, @03:33AM   Printer-friendly
from the nostradamus dept.

Bain consultants' macro trends department have released a report examining trends in demographics, automation and inequality to produce a set of predictions.

This kind of report seems to be all over the place these days, but this one seems more detailed and perhaps a little less optimistic than most.

In the US, a new wave of investment in automation could stimulate as much as $8 trillion in incremental investments and abruptly lift interest rates. By the end of the 2020s, automation may eliminate 20% to 25% of current jobs, hitting middle- to low-income workers the hardest. As investments peak and then decline—probably around the end of the 2020s to the start of the 2030s—anemic demand growth is likely to constrain economic expansion, and global interest rates may again test zero percent. Faced with market imbalances and growth-stifling levels of inequality, many societies may reset the government's role in the marketplace.

They predict that governments will assume a larger role in markets to combat inequality and boost demand, but will our corporate overlords decide that's in their interests, or continue to squeeze the lower and middle classes forever?

Related: Humans Are Underrated
Douglas Coupland: "The Nine to Five is Barbaric"
Survey Says AI Will Exceed Human Performance in Many Occupations Within Decades
More Than 70% of US Fears Robots Taking Over Our Lives, Survey Finds
The Future of Work Is Uncertain, Schools Should Worry Now
The Venus Project and the Quest for a Socially Engineered Future
Skilled Manufacturing Workers in Demand in the U.S.


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  • (Score: 1, Flamebait) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday February 14 2018, @11:23AM (17 children)

    by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Wednesday February 14 2018, @11:23AM (#637556) Homepage Journal

    Middle class still existing by the end of 2020? I think not.

    I dunno about you but I'm planning on staying middle class for the rest of my life. And there's not a damned thing the rich can do to prevent it because I have valuable skills and I'm willing to use them in exchange for my keep.

    Now the poor, they can prevent it. All they have to do is keep up their blaming of everyone else for their lots in life and continuing us on the path we're currently treading towards communism. It won't harm the very rich because corruption absolutely thrives under communism but it will utterly destroy the middle class.

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  • (Score: 1) by ewk on Wednesday February 14 2018, @01:46PM (14 children)

    by ewk (5923) on Wednesday February 14 2018, @01:46PM (#637583)

    Ah. yeah... "the poor"...

    Even if they crawl out of their misery and learn a (some even will learn your) valuable skill they will cost you (part of) your keep.
    Seems to have something to do with supply and demand...

    Even TMB just can't seem to get a break these days :-)

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    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday February 14 2018, @02:30PM

      by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Wednesday February 14 2018, @02:30PM (#637590) Homepage Journal

      I'm perfectly okay with supply and demand dictating who gets paid what. If I need to increase my skills pool to continue in the lifestyle I desire, I will. Because I know clean to my bones that the world owes me nothing that I don't earn. Neither communism nor crony-capitalism allow supply and demand to rule though.

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      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 14 2018, @04:52PM (12 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday February 14 2018, @04:52PM (#637666) Journal

      Even if they crawl out of their misery and learn a (some even will learn your) valuable skill they will cost you (part of) your keep.

      But will they? They'll also create the need for more jobs to provide goods and services to the no longer poor. That's what happened in the developed world in the first place.

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by ewk on Wednesday February 14 2018, @06:18PM (11 children)

        by ewk (5923) on Wednesday February 14 2018, @06:18PM (#637719)

        No, this developed world you mention, developed itself mainly by raping Africa. Asia and (mainly South) America lock, stock and barrel.

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        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 14 2018, @07:34PM (10 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday February 14 2018, @07:34PM (#637812) Journal

          No, this developed world you mention, developed itself mainly by raping Africa. Asia and (mainly South) America lock, stock and barrel.

          So how many Africans were raped in order to develop C, penicillin, or world-class universities?

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 14 2018, @08:50PM (3 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 14 2018, @08:50PM (#637868)

            "developed itself mainly"

            Keep up Khollow.

            The US made many advances, go science! However if you think the US empire was the result of hard work and rugged capitalism; well then you really need to educate yourself.

            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday February 15 2018, @01:26AM (2 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 15 2018, @01:26AM (#637993) Journal
              In other words, weasel words so one can never be wrong.

              I'll just note here that the African economy is far smaller than developed world economies. For example, the GDP of Africa was $3.3 trillion in 2017 compared to California's $2.4 trillion. Basically, the economy of the entire continent is roughly a third larger than the biggest state in the US (subject of course, to the weaknesses of the GDP metric).

              Sorry, but Africa's economy would be bigger, if it really were so instrumental to the rest of the world.
              • (Score: 1) by therainingmonkey on Thursday February 15 2018, @09:18AM (1 child)

                by therainingmonkey (6839) on Thursday February 15 2018, @09:18AM (#638153)

                Many of the vital resources which underpin the rest of global capitalism are extracted in Africa.
                Glencore (probably the world's largest mining and mineral extraction firm) operates throughout the continent, but uses "tax avoidance" techniques or outright bribery and state capture to ensure they can do so without contributing to the countries they operate in. After laundering the value through their different arms and subsidiaries, Glencore in fact contributes to the GDP of Switzerland, not African nations.

                This story is repeated time and time and time again at least since colonialism "ended" in the 1960s. It remains to be seen how Chinese firms will operate in Africa, but it looks as though they'll be just marginally better for African people; enough to be hailed as "saviours" from western exploitation while exploiting almost as hard.

                • (Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Thursday February 15 2018, @11:21AM

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 15 2018, @11:21AM (#638184) Journal

                  Many of the vital resources which underpin the rest of global capitalism are extracted in Africa.

                  So what? Vital resources don't magically turn into modern day goods and services. There's a lot of parties that have to cooperate to make it happen. My view is that the relative amounts of GDP are a fair indicator here of the relative contribution of each region. Resource extraction in particular is a notoriously low value operation. There needs to be an incredible amount of processing to turn raw ore and minerals, basic foods, and other resources into finished goods. And the poorest parts of the developing world just don't contribute that much to the process.

                  After laundering the value through their different arms and subsidiaries, Glencore in fact contributes to the GDP of Switzerland, not African nations.

                  Even if you assume every bit of revenue generated by Glencore is tax avoided GDP that should go to Africa, you're still only looking at roughly $150 billion.

                  This story is repeated time and time and time again at least since colonialism "ended" in the 1960s. It remains to be seen how Chinese firms will operate in Africa, but it looks as though they'll be just marginally better for African people; enough to be hailed as "saviours" from western exploitation while exploiting almost as hard.

                  I get that this story gets repeated over and over in academia. But how about real life? How exactly is the African worker supposed to feed, clothe, better themselves, if they aren't being "exploited" by wealthy foreign employers? Remember the alternative is to be exploited by the poorer, local talent instead. At some point, you need to recognize that one needs more than just resources in order to prosper and the usual, near universal way to get there is by emulating the highly successful current developed world.

                  These anti-colonialist fairy tales obscure an important fact. Everyone, everywhere is doing better than they were in 1950 with the exception of some war zones. That includes Africa, Asia, and South America.

                  I get that Africa in particular has a tough time. That's why I think they'll be among the last to attain developed world status this century. It's very easy to forget that most of the developed world was pretty damn poor even as late as the Great Depression. The route is marked. One merely needs to follow it.

          • (Score: 3, Insightful) by ewk on Thursday February 15 2018, @02:00PM (5 children)

            by ewk (5923) on Thursday February 15 2018, @02:00PM (#638231)

            10? 100? 1000? Your guess is as good as anybodies, but does it matter?

            It's not as if the Europeans (Brits, Dutch, Belgians etc.) were known for the their compassion while extracting the goods/wealth (from India, Indonesia and Congo respectively) that helped them to move on in the developed world.

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            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday February 15 2018, @07:05PM (4 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 15 2018, @07:05PM (#638371) Journal

              10? 100? 1000? Your guess is as good as anybodies, but does it matter?

              Zero is a pretty good number too. Presumably, you had a reason for writing those words about "rape" in the first place. Or are you merely a poo-flinging monkey?

              It's not as if the Europeans (Brits, Dutch, Belgians etc.) were known for the their compassion while extracting the goods/wealth (from India, Indonesia and Congo respectively) that helped them to move on in the developed world.

              So what? Nobody assumes modern man has a surfeit of compassion (which incidentally is a good thing, because you'll never be disappointed). And resources don't automagically turn themselves into a developed world society. It's quite inaccurate to say as you did that modern societies were built "mainly by raping" the resources of the poorer parts of the world. Those resources have existed for the entirety of human occupation of Earth, but it is only recently that we could use them. Sure, it is to some degree happenstance that Europe happened to take over the technological lead after 1500 and become the exploiters of the world, but it is also infrastructure of both the physical and social sorts that they built. It most certainly was not resources!

              • (Score: 2) by ewk on Friday February 16 2018, @12:47PM (3 children)

                by ewk (5923) on Friday February 16 2018, @12:47PM (#638781)

                "And resources don't automagically turn themselves into a developed world society."

                No, but getting them cheap and using them 'back home' instead of where they originated, does.

                In fact because of the vastly increased (material) wealth, the way for the other stuff like infrastructure for paved well enough.
                'Erst kommt das Fressen, dann kommt die Moral.'

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                • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday February 16 2018, @02:12PM (2 children)

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday February 16 2018, @02:12PM (#638796) Journal

                  No, but getting them cheap and using them 'back home' instead of where they originated, does.

                  You miss the point of your own writing. Those resources had enormous value "back home", but not where they originated. This has been enormously valuable for regions that otherwise would remain as they've been for thousands of years.

                  And if things were so wonderful in the developing world in the long ago past, then why did the populations surge upwards by a huge amount over the past two centuries? Looks like increased life span and reduced infant mortality to me.

                  'Erst kommt das Fressen, dann kommt die Moral.'

                  Good saying. But perhaps we should do more here than just type words without understanding? The developed world figured out how to feed itself - infrastructure. Now it figures out morality via law (which I might add really has been sorted out a while ago) - infrastructure of a different sort.

                  • (Score: 2) by ewk on Monday February 19 2018, @05:11PM (1 child)

                    by ewk (5923) on Monday February 19 2018, @05:11PM (#640151)

                    So maybe it would have been a good idea to 'pay' properly instead of getting them cheap.
                    Because, then the originating location could do something with that 'pay', like figuring out how to feed itself... oh wait, that's what we call development...
                    As for the not understanding: It's German... maybe that will help you.

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                    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday February 19 2018, @07:28PM

                      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday February 19 2018, @07:28PM (#640210) Journal

                      So maybe it would have been a good idea to 'pay' properly instead of getting them cheap.

                      So many unexamined assumptions in this sentence. Let's start with the scare quotes around "pay". Are we talking about paying poor people for work or not? If we aren't, then use the right words. Just be aware that my "give a shit" goes down once we stop talking about concrete things like payment for work or resources and start talking about woo that can mean whatever I feel like at the time.

                      Then there's the weasel wording of "pay properly". What does that even mean? Then add on that it's supposed to be a "good idea". What makes you think that's not already the case? Let us also keep in mind that a lot of the work they do isn't worth a whole lot, like the previously mentioned resource extraction else they would be getting paid more for it.

                      Moving on, "cheap". Africa is the go to place for cheap resource extraction and other relatively low skill, low infrastructure industries, because it is desperate and poor. It will become even more desperate and poor a region, if we make those industries too expensive to operate in Africa.

                      The problem here is that tribal morality has no place in economics. What barely works for a tribe of 50-100 clueless people doesn't work for 6 billion people who aren't part of the developed world, but are building that world in their own countries. Feed them then develop a sensible morality.

  • (Score: 2) by crafoo on Saturday February 17 2018, @04:30PM (1 child)

    by crafoo (6639) on Saturday February 17 2018, @04:30PM (#639363)

    Why pay you when they can just point a gun at your head?

    "Fuck you, I'm getting mine" isn't going to work as a long-term strategy when everyone around you is kneeling in a ditch waiting for the bullet.

    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday February 17 2018, @07:12PM

      by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@proton.me> on Saturday February 17 2018, @07:12PM (#639413) Homepage Journal

      I'm confused. Did I take you to raise while I was drunk and forget? Are you going to start calling me Daddy and asking to borrow the car? Well in that case, fuck off to your room. You're grounded. And no electronics for the entire week.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.