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from the the-truth-is-what-we-say-it-is dept.
TechCrunch:
"China's web scrubbers have been busy banning a collection of terms and dropping the hammer on user accounts after the Xi Jinping, the country's premier, got the all-clear to become 'President For Life' after the Communist Party moved to amend the constitution to remove an article that limits Presidential terms to two five-year terms."
BBC:
"The comments remaining on the popular Sina Weibo microblog are mostly monosyllabic statements from users simply say they "like" or "approve" the amendments.
They are likely to be from China's "50 Cent Party" - a nickname coined for internet commentators who are paid small amounts to post messages supporting the government's position.
Some posts have attracted thousands of comments - but only a few are available to view. This is traditionally indicative of online censorship by government administrators. "
China Digital Times:
"Following state media's announcement, censorship authorities began work to limit online discussion. CDT Chinese editors found the following terms blocked from being posted on Weibo: [...]"
Sources:
China's web censors go into overdrive as President Xi Jinping consolidates power
China censorship after Xi Jinping presidency extension proposal
(Score: 2) by Hartree on Wednesday February 28 2018, @04:47AM (4 children)
I've heard that one before. Several times. In the 1960s we were going to get economically waxed by Germany. Then by Japan Inc. in the late 70s. Then the Asian Tigers a decade later. In fact, I've been being assured the US is on the path to immediate collapse most of my life.
Of course, in the time of Augustus, Livy predicted that unless it returned to its founding principles (which, by the way, didn't exist at the founding while they were rebelling against the Etruscans) Rome would surely fall. He was right. It took 500 years for the western empire, and a thousand for the eastern empire. This is why I have limited patience for those crying doom.
One day, it will be true as nothing lasts forever, but given some of the internal structural problems of China and (for all the bluster and Syrian/Ukrainian military expeditions) the shaky economic fundamentals of Russia (what's the current price of oil compared to the rate they're drawing down government reserve funds?), I wouldn't hold my breath.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 28 2018, @10:08AM (1 child)
When I'm chopping down a tree, every swing of the axe I think "is this the blow that will bring it down?" Every time, the answer is no, except for the final blow.
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Wednesday February 28 2018, @04:14PM
Maybe, but if you keep swinging away and then pass the job to your son, and he eventually passes the job to your grandson, who passes it to your great-grandson, who finally fells the tree (with it falling on his head), as far as you were concerned the tree never really fell since you weren't even alive to see it.
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Wednesday February 28 2018, @04:23PM (1 child)
Many predictions tend to be overly optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on your point of view), and greatly underestimate the effect of inertia.
Just look at sci-fi from the 1960s or 70s or 80s: they predicted we've have giant rotating space stations and a moon base by the early 2000s, that we'd have biological androids and people moving offworld by the mid 2010s, etc. It's the same with those predictions about economic powers. Germany is indeed doing very well economically overall (#2 exporter in the world by value, just behind China), and Japan was doing extremely well but then hit a big roadblock and has now been eclipsed by China. America is not rising relative to other powers, it's falling. But like Rome, it could take a very long time for it to get really bad, or it might not ever get really awful, it might become just like the UK: a has-been that's still a decent place compared to the majority of nations worldwide to live in but not the economic and military superpower it once was.
Personally, I have a hard time seeing China having any kind of political or economic disaster any time soon. They're too important to the global economy, because they make so much stuff we use, and all the manufacturing know-how has moved there. AFAICT, the economy there is good, probably better overall for most people than it's ever been (look what is was like 30 years ago). Generally, countries are politically stable as long as the economy is healthy, because the people are happy and busy. When the economy does poorly, then you have a recipe for trouble because now there's a bunch of unhappy, unemployed people. I don't see how China fits this description, though Russia seems to.
(Score: 2) by Hartree on Wednesday February 28 2018, @04:53PM
China is much better than Russia, but like all countries (including the US) it faces constraints. For all of the "Go West" development, they still have a major economic disparity between the east and the western regions. They have multiple ethnic instabilities (Xinjiang, anyone?). And for all of the reforms, they still have a lot of quasi state owned industries that they can't seem to shake. The big success stories notwithstanding, they still have a problem that much of the civil planning is done politically with less input from the economics than it really should have (ghost cities, anyone?)
Further, the official statistics on growth, etc. coming out of China seem rather optimistic compared to what can be monitored from outside (exports, imports of commodities, cash flows for investments). There's a lot of impetus to make it look good for Beijing when the reality is that Beijing is far far away and the local officials do what they want much of the time. Yes, Xi has made moves on tackling corruption, but it seems to mostly be hitting political opponents of him and his allies seem to be doing business, at least partly, as usual.
China is a great nation with a bright future in many ways (We hope. A bad future for China could be very bad for the rest of the world), but my point is that usually there are limits to what any country can do in the long term.