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MIT Tech Review reports on a new study which used computer model to analyze wealth distribution in society. It concludes that the majority of riches do not result from talent, intelligence or hard work - but luck. Those who succeed most in modern society are born well and experience several 'lucky events' which they exploit, but are of mediocre talent. The study's abstract states that the model has potential for encouraging investment in the genuinely gifted, and summarizes:
"...if it is true that some degree of talent is necessary to be successful in life, almost never the most talented people reach the highest peaks of success, being overtaken by mediocre but sensibly luckier individuals. As to our knowledge, this counterintuitive result - although implicitly suggested between the lines in a vast literature - is quantified here for the first time."
(Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Sunday March 04 2018, @05:12AM (5 children)
We don't have to guess what would happen.
The actual result is that most windfall winners (not just lotteries) flame out badly. They don't follow said basic invest advice and they're surrounded by a toxic culture that chews them up.
Merely preserving wealth would be a big improvement over just luck.
Second, I'm dubious about the valuation of stock market index funds. Such Profit calculators [soylentnews.org] are notoriously inaccurate.
(Score: 3, Informative) by vux984 on Sunday March 04 2018, @05:38AM (2 children)
That's a good point; it's also the case that wealthy families lose their wealth within a couple generations too. The same 70% in fact.
"70% of Rich Families Lose Their Wealth by the Second Generation"
http://time.com/money/3925308/rich-families-lose-wealth/ [time.com]
That's why I didn't go so far as to claim the 'vast majority' would do any better than Trump. I only disputed that trump was in any way very exceptional. He's in the 30% that held onto it. Ok, so I concede he did better than the majority would; and I guess that's an achievement... but it's really not much of one.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday March 04 2018, @03:10PM (1 child)
(Score: 3, Insightful) by vux984 on Sunday March 04 2018, @07:32PM
And you'd be right to do so. I suspect that the people who actually earned it will have setup enough wealth management infrastructure and taught their offspring enough to take care of things for a while, and it takes a full generation for that to fall apart. vs lottery winners who have no wealth management and no skills so they mostly fall apart immediately.
(Score: 0, Offtopic) by khallow on Sunday March 04 2018, @05:43AM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 05 2018, @05:54PM
As someone who lives entirely on the returns from a stock market index fund I built up over 15 years (by saving almost everything I made), I find them very valuable. One look at history will tell you that they're one of the safest investments you can make, and quite profitable as well.