Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

SoylentNews is people

Puerto Rican Death Toll From Hurricane Maria May be Many Times Higher Than Official Estimate

posted by mrpg on Wednesday May 30 2018, @05:05AM   Printer-friendly
from the Unincorporated-territory dept.

takyon writes:

Study Puts Puerto Rico Death Toll From Hurricane Maria Near 5,000

Perhaps 5,000 people died in Puerto Rico in 2017 for reasons related to September's Hurricane Maria, according to a study that dismisses the official death toll of 64 as "a substantial underestimate."

A research team led by scientists at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health didn't simply attempt to count dead bodies in the wake of the powerful storm. Instead, they surveyed randomly chosen households and asked the occupants about their experiences.

From that approach, they concluded that between Sept. 20 and Dec. 31, 2017, there were 4,645 "excess deaths" — that is, deaths that would not have occurred if the island hadn't been plunged into a prolonged disaster following the devastating storm.

But the estimate isn't as precise as the figure implies. The researchers calculate there is a 95 percent likelihood the death toll was somewhere between about 800 and 8,500 people. They say about 5,000 is a likely figure.

Also at NYT and The Hill.

Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (open, DOI: 10.1056/NEJMsa1803972) (DX)

Original Submission

 
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.
Puerto Rican Death Toll From Hurricane Maria May be Many Times Higher Than Official Estimate | Log In/Create an Account | Top | 37 comments | Search Discussion
Display Options Threshold/Breakthrough Mark All as Read Mark All as Unread
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @05:58PM (7 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @05:58PM (#686380)

    An indirectly related disaster death occurs when the unsafe or unhealthy conditions present during any phase of the disaster (i.e., pre-event or preparations, during the actual occurrence, or post-event during cleanup after a disaster) contribute to a death (2).

    What makes you think that is what was measured here? Did you look at the survey before posting this?

  • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday May 30 2018, @06:11PM (6 children)

    by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday May 30 2018, @06:11PM (#686391) Journal

    What makes you think that is what was measured here? Did you look at the survey before posting this?

    Yes, I did.

    That link I provided is a citation from the paper.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:02PM (5 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:02PM (#686412)

      3c) What was the cause of death?
      o Died before hurricane *will be auto-selected if death before hurricane*
      o Trauma from vehicle accident
      o Trauma from building collapse
      o Trauma from landslide
      o Trauma from other
      o Drowning
      o Fire
      o Electrocution
      o Disruption of usual medical care (medications, dialysis, doctor, nursing facility)
      o Medical complications from injury, trauma or direct illness due to the hurricane
      o Suicide
      o Other
      o Causes not related to the hurricane

      So you think if someone couldn't get a medication for a few days and then dies months later the cdc definition you quoted says this should be counted as a death due to hurricane? Because that is what is counted in this survey.

      • (Score: -1, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:18PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:18PM (#686421)

        Ah, look under the "Time periods" heading here (can't copy paste it...):

        Our case definition does not include recommended time periods...

        https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/28/6/1124/771525 [oup.com]

        So they punted on it, leaving it up to whoever fills out the report.

      • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:21PM (3 children)

        by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:21PM (#686425) Journal

        Because that is what is counted in this survey.

        So you're saying the just ignore the answer to this one?

        DELAY IN MEDICAL CARE
        6) Did the hurricane lead to any of the following problems among members in your household that
        didn’t exist before the hurricane? (If so, for how many days?)

        • (Score: -1, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:30PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:30PM (#686429)

          Yep, the definitions are worthless without a timeframe, literally anything that someone dies of after surviving a disaster could be linked to it. It is all up to the opinions of medical examiners for this system to make sense.

          • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:59PM (1 child)

            by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday May 30 2018, @07:59PM (#686449) Journal

            Interesting how the timeframe can be too long while simultaneously not existing.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @08:58PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 30 2018, @08:58PM (#686482)

              The timeframe does not exist in the guidelines, the person filling out the form (usually a medical examiner, in this case family members) can use whatever they want.