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posted by martyb on Friday July 27 2018, @08:18AM   Printer-friendly
from the Ian-Betteridge-says-"No" dept.

"White House economic advisers are spreading the word that second-quarter GDP, out Friday, may surpass 4% - the first time growth has hit or exceeded that number since the third quarter of 2014, FOX Business has learned.

Ahead of the data, Trump administration officials are preparing a major victory lap and plan to use the strong data points as proof that the president’s economic policies of lower taxes and deregulation have reversed years of economic malaise that followed the financial crisis and President Barack Obama’s fiscal agenda, according to people close to the White House."

[...] If GDP does surpass 4% on a quarterly basis it will be the first time it has done so since the third quarter of 2014, when it registered 5.2% during Obama’s second term in office. Even so, economic advisers in the Trump administration, such as Larry Kudlow, have blamed Obama’s policies of higher taxes and enhanced regulations for the relatively feeble economic growth during his eight years in office, where GDP never grew above 3% on a yearly basis.

[...] Still, as the White House prepares to tout GDP as evidence of the administration’s economic prowess and progress, some business leaders and economists have expressed doubts that certain fiscal policies, as they relate to trade, may be problematic and soon endanger growth.

Trump has engaged in a trade war with many trading partners, slapping tariffs on foreign goods and materials, and threatening to walk away from the North American Free Trade Agreement [NAFTA], a trade deal the country has with Mexico and Canada.

[...] Many countries have responded with tariffs of their own on U.S. products sold abroad, and there’s growing anecdotal evidence that American manufacturers are being hurt by the tariff war. It’s unclear if the retaliatory tariffs and their negative impact on the sale of U.S. goods abroad will show up in the second-quarter GDP numbers, but most economists believe such policies will ultimately hurt economic growth.

“Without question, tariffs will hit growth in the coming quarters as companies face higher prices and supply bottlenecks, and investment and consumption fall relative to where they would otherwise be,” Benn Steil, senior fellow and director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, tells FOX Business. “The only question is by how much, which depends on how far tariff madness spreads,” he warns.

“I would remind folks that the president's team has already said, ‘There will be no retaliation.’ They've already been wrong,” [CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie] Dimon told CNNMoney. “If I was the president, I'd be a little ticked off at some of my advisers, to tell you the truth.”

foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economic-growth-nears-5-time-to-celebrate


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  • (Score: 5, Informative) by AndyTheAbsurd on Friday July 27 2018, @09:24AM (11 children)

    by AndyTheAbsurd (3958) on Friday July 27 2018, @09:24AM (#713602) Journal

    Donald Trump is lying. How can I tell? He continues to exist.

    Wage growth is stagnant to negative. [nymag.com]

    Trump administration previously lied about GDP growth in first quarter [wsj.com], Trump has a pattern of lying; I'm not going to believe that 4% number until the actual numbers are out and reviewed by experts.

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  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by The Mighty Buzzard on Friday July 27 2018, @10:49AM (3 children)

    It's best to ignore bragged upon growth numbers anyway. Presidents have the ability to tank an economy fairly quickly but there's very little they can do to help it besides removing obviously harmful policies over the short term. They can help it, mind you, but their help generally falls within the range of normal varations in the economy over the short term, so claiming a win is nearly never strongly arguable.

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    • (Score: 4, Interesting) by bob_super on Friday July 27 2018, @05:18PM (2 children)

      by bob_super (1357) on Friday July 27 2018, @05:18PM (#713760)

      Presidents can help the economy short-term by piling on debt, to inject cash into the system.
      That's supposed to be for recession woes, and be paid off when the economy is growing. I'm not holding my breath that the trumpeting of growth will be followed by tax measures to shrink that debt (that same debt that Obama was only growing to ruin the country, but now is OK, because it's their tax cut).
      I just wish eligible voters were less stupid (the ones who vote and the ones who don't).

      The R side s like a 7 year-old having too much cake and candy, and the D side, for all their general incompetence, will be left with yet another mess to clean up (see: post-W).

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday July 28 2018, @12:58AM

        No D in my lifetime has done anything about overspending, so I don't see that happening with any subsequent ones. No, don't bother mentioning Clinton. That was the dot com boom and he had nothing to do with it except for his veep inventing the Internet.

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      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Saturday July 28 2018, @01:44AM

        by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Saturday July 28 2018, @01:44AM (#713905) Journal

        If there were doctors for economies, I don't think their hippocratic oaths would permit them to pile up debt and/or inject cash into the system. That crap is harmful in the long run. In various countries, wheelbarrows of cash couldn't buy a loaf of bread. Our government is so proud of their ability to "control inflation", but compare the price of a loaf of bread today, to any decade in the 1900's. I can remember my grandmother being outraged that a loaf of bread then cost about thirty cents.

  • (Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Friday July 27 2018, @12:14PM

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday July 27 2018, @12:14PM (#713637) Journal

    Wage growth is stagnant to negative.

    And? Wage growth would be expected to lag low employment. I think a better complaint is that any economic growth will be pulled down by the trade war that is brewing. We'll see.

  • (Score: 3, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Friday July 27 2018, @05:22PM (3 children)

    by DeathMonkey (1380) on Friday July 27 2018, @05:22PM (#713762) Journal

    Trump administration previously lied about GDP growth in first quarter

    Yep, Trump lied and said it was 3.2, and reality turned out to be 2.0. I'm sure he's telling the truth this time though!

    "Watch those GDP numbers. We started off at a very low number, and right now we hit a 3.2 (percent). Nobody thought that was possible."
    — Donald Trump on Thursday, June 28th, 2018 in a speech in Mount Pleasant, Wis.

    U.S. first-quarter GDP growth was 2 percent [reuters.com]

    • (Score: 3, Informative) by Thexalon on Friday July 27 2018, @06:16PM (2 children)

      by Thexalon (636) on Friday July 27 2018, @06:16PM (#713789)

      And the number I just saw reported was 4.1% [bloomberg.com], which, although this seems to come as a surprise to Trump and many of his supporters, remains quite a bit less than 5%.

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      • (Score: 1) by Sulla on Friday July 27 2018, @06:20PM (1 child)

        by Sulla (5173) on Friday July 27 2018, @06:20PM (#713791) Journal

        In the speech he gave last night at a US steel factory he said he expected between 3.7 and 4.2 based on what he was being told. He commented that he saw one newspaper saying that it might even reach five to which he said "Wow, wouldn't that be nice?"

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        • (Score: 4, Funny) by DeathMonkey on Friday July 27 2018, @06:43PM

          by DeathMonkey (1380) on Friday July 27 2018, @06:43PM (#713796) Journal

          He commented that he saw one newspaper saying that it might even reach five...

          Trump claimed to read a newspaper? One more lie onto the pile...

  • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Friday July 27 2018, @05:27PM

    by HiThere (866) Subscriber Badge on Friday July 27 2018, @05:27PM (#713767) Journal

    Your evidence isn't evidence. A rising GDP wouldn't say anything about how it was distributed.

    It's quite appropriate to be skeptical about the claim of a rising GDP, but that wages have stagnated or declined isn't evidence. It's quite possible that all the increase (if it exists) was scooped up by a few well connected people, and that wouldn't mean the GDP wasn't rising...it would just mean that *you* (a very plural you) did not benefit.

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  • (Score: 2) by All Your Lawn Are Belong To Us on Friday July 27 2018, @08:39PM

    by All Your Lawn Are Belong To Us (6553) on Friday July 27 2018, @08:39PM (#713827) Journal

    Actually, it's the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce [bea.gov] that is putting out the number. As they do every quarter. And yes they do periodically correct the numbers released on back quarters. That's a regular feature of what they do.
        None of that is Trump's doing in particular.

    Trump's crowing about it like he's personally responsible for it.... that you may disregard at your pleasure.

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