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The unprecedented temperatures seen over Summer 2018 are a sign of things to come—and a direct result of climate change, according to new Oxford University research.
In the newly published report, researchers from the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the School of Geography and Environment, Oxford University, who worked in collaboration with the World Weather Attribution network (WWA), reveal that climate change more than doubled the likelihood of the European heatwave, which could come to be known as regular summer temperatures.
Dr. Friederike Otto, Deputy Director of the ECI at the University of Oxford, said: "What was once regarded as unusually warm weather will become commonplace – in some cases, it already has."
The research compares current temperatures with historical records at seven weather stations in northern Europe – two in Finland, one each in Denmark, the Irish Republic, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
These stations were selected because current temperature data could be accessed in real time, and they possess digitised records extending back to the early 1900s. The scientists also used computer models to assess the impact of man-made climate change.
https://phys.org/news/2018-07-heatwave-triggered-climate.html
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(Score: 5, Insightful) by looorg on Tuesday July 31 2018, @10:20AM (8 children)
This was mighty quick of them, considering that this current weather even just started at the beginning of July and they are already done with their report and they have already managed to conclude that it's due to global warming (according to their models). Not really sure what to say but I'm not exactly filled with confidence here about their research and conclusions.
Since I'm living in this new "hell on earth" I really do hope this isn't the new normal. I live along the coast and it has been tropical conditions here now for most of July -- I can get used to the heat but the heat combined with the really high humidity is making it quite horrible. Add to that there has been no to minor amounts of rain for about two months. Currently it's just 29C just past noon, the coolest I can hope for today according to the weather service is at around 4am when it's will be 20-21C. While that might sound all fine and dandy if you live a lot further south or in some kind of desert it's not what I'm used to here. Most people here seem to have become quite lethargic and most of the day is spend trying to hide from the sun and drink as much fluids as you just possibly can. I'm starting to wonder if there is actually a point to showering anymore, I feel almost worse when I come out of it as when I went in. Everything is just "sticky".
But enough about me not really being able to adapt to my new summer weather and back to the article. Their conclusions seem somewhat premature. Apparently they can't even really say it's for all of Europe. The only stations they can conclude that this is possibly due to climate change are the southern stations (Denmark, Netherlands and Ireland -- like any of them are really southern Europe? Are they not all at most Central? Possibly the south of the North). Which for the northern stations Finland, Sweden and Norway they can't draw that conclusion at all since this is apparently just a spike in the data and not a proper indicator at all.
So no actual trend then. This could just be one freak year and next one could be normal again ... But I'm sure they can blame that to on Climate change, it's trying to trick us and all.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 31 2018, @10:25AM (1 child)
The important thing is that they got a paper published to put on the cv.
(Score: 2) by looorg on Tuesday July 31 2018, @10:39AM
Sounds more like it. Sitting now playing around with the national weather service climate scenarios and I don't think they concur with their report even tho they are in charge of at least one of the weather stations used.
http://www.smhi.se/klimat/framtidens-klimat/klimatscenarier?area=swe&var=t&sc=rcp85&seas=ar&dnr=99&sp=en&sx=0&sy=558#sc=rcp85&seas=som [www.smhi.se]
So depending on which model I'm to believe in for the next 100 years the temperature is either going to rise with 2C to 4C during the summers, the winter temperature might rise with as much as 8C. It's a bit odd tho since most of the bars before the middle of the 1980's seem to indicate that there will be lower the average and it's just in the last decade or so that they have been above average. So what is to say that is the trend and this just isn't the extreme? Interestingly this new high temperatures are also going to coincide with a lot more rain, as much as 30% more rain; even more rains during the summers. So I'm starting to guess that this comes down to whom you want to believe.
(Score: 0, Troll) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday July 31 2018, @03:16PM
You've contacted government and other agencies in the past. All of them have form letters ready, all they need do is put your name and return address on it, and send it to you.
Apparently, they have form studies ready to release whenever anything "unusual" happens. They're stacked up on someone's desk. Something unusual happens, they skim through the stack, and something that sorta fits is released to the MSM. It saves a lot of time that way.
"Global warming makes meteor strikes more likely due to the affinity of warm bodies to cold bodies" or some such nonsense should be coming out soon.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 31 2018, @04:16PM
Sure. So, how many "freak years" must happen before you'll start to acknowledge there might possibly be a trend for reals? Because NASA already published in 2015 [nasa.gov] that the top-ten hottest years since 1880 all occurred in the last twenty years. The year 2014 was the most feakish, as it topped that list [climatecentral.org].
And guess what... every year since then [climatecentral.org] has been warmer than 2014 [climatecentral.org]. Seems to me like a trend of freak years, no?
(Score: 1) by oldmac31310 on Tuesday July 31 2018, @09:47PM (3 children)
What? You find 29C extreme? The forecast for tomorrow, here in NY is 85F (about the same as 29C) with thunder storms (so very humid). Not much fun, but not really extreme at all. It depends on what you are accustomed to I suppose.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Wednesday August 01 2018, @12:20AM (1 child)
Are you seriously trying to argue that weather is the same as climate?
(Score: 1) by oldmac31310 on Wednesday August 01 2018, @03:11PM
No, what gave you that idea?
(Score: 2) by looorg on Wednesday August 01 2018, @10:29AM
As a single day it might not be extreme, but it's extreme for being here and it's extreme that it has been like that every single day now for about a month. Not a day or hour where humidity drops below tropical levels. Everything is just sticky and moist now and things are seriously starting to smell sour. It's like living in a sauna, and not the nice hot one but the humid one.