SoylentNews

European Heatwave was Triggered by Climate Change, According to new Research

posted by martyb on Tuesday July 31 2018, @08:41AM   
from the hot-off-the-press! dept.

"exec" writes:

The unprecedented temperatures seen over Summer 2018 are a sign of things to come—and a direct result of climate change, according to new Oxford University research.

In the newly published report, researchers from the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the School of Geography and Environment, Oxford University, who worked in collaboration with the World Weather Attribution network (WWA), reveal that climate change more than doubled the likelihood of the European heatwave, which could come to be known as regular summer temperatures.

Dr. Friederike Otto, Deputy Director of the ECI at the University of Oxford, said: "What was once regarded as unusually warm weather will become commonplace – in some cases, it already has."

The research compares current temperatures with historical records at seven weather stations in northern Europe – two in Finland, one each in Denmark, the Irish Republic, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.

These stations were selected because current temperature data could be accessed in real time, and they possess digitised records extending back to the early 1900s. The scientists also used computer models to assess the impact of man-made climate change.

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-heatwave-triggered-climate.html

-- submitted from IRC

---

Original Submission

• Re:shill astroturfer thinks us dumb Re:shill astroturfer thinks us dumb (Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Tuesday July 31 2018, @05:18PM (4 children)

  by khallow (3766) on Tuesday July 31 2018, @05:18PM (#715295) Journal

  I think the shill astroturfer has a good point here. That's your argument? Then you can't be too smart. The obvious rebuttal here is that we weren't looking for most of those extreme events past a few decades ago. Even in the complete absence of any sort of climate change, we would expect to see frequency of extreme events increase merely because we're looking for them now. That's an example of observation bias, a common fallacy in climatology.
  
  Moving on, since I have to say this every time I comment on climate change stuff, yes, I believe there is global warming happening. That doesn't successfully rationalize the circular argument of the paper which is that computer models, which have been fitted to observed climate, successfully predict current observed climate. It's tiresome to have the same half a dozen common fallacies used over and over again. I get that there's a minuscule chance that we're somehow in a position where the advised dramatic action of the past thirty years, of stopping virtually all CO2 emissions and radically changing our economies, is a good idea, but shouldn't we have evidence to support that first before we seriously impair our economies? People die from poverty too.

  Parent

  Starting Score:	1		point
  Moderation		+1
  Insightful=1, Total=1
  Extra 'Insightful' Modifier		0
  Total Score:		2

• Re:shill astroturfer thinks us dumb Re:shill astroturfer thinks us dumb (Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 31 2018, @07:59PM (3 children)

  by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 31 2018, @07:59PM (#715366)

  The obvious rebuttal here is that we weren't looking for most of those extreme events past a few decades ago.

  Try harder. The simple rebuttal to your observation is that we have more than a century of detailed weather reports. If we simply "weren't looking" before, as you suggest, then we would find similar extreme events across all 100+ years of records. Instead, we find almost all extremes in the last 20 years of records, whether we're looking at droughts, rainfall, cold spells, or heat spells.

  Parent

  • Re:shill astroturfer thinks us dumb (Score: 1) by Captival on Tuesday July 31 2018, @11:55PM

    by Captival (6866) on Tuesday July 31 2018, @11:55PM (#715448)

    It's so wonderfully convenient for us climate zealots that our theories evolve to always have a copout excuse for why our previous predictions were wrong. In religion it's called God of the Gaps.

    Parent

  • Re:shill astroturfer thinks us dumb (Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Wednesday August 01 2018, @12:17AM

    by PartTimeZombie (4827) on Wednesday August 01 2018, @12:17AM (#715454)

    I think what khallow's arguing is that on the odd occasion people's houses were swept away by floods, or their crops were ruined in the past they just pretended it didn't happen. At least the sentence :

    The obvious rebuttal here is that we weren't looking for most of those extreme events past a few decades ago.

    says that to me.

    The fact that those events are all happening more frequently is just some liberal conspiracy actually.

    Parent

  • Re:shill astroturfer thinks us dumb (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday August 01 2018, @03:48AM

    by khallow (3766) on Wednesday August 01 2018, @03:48AM (#715515) Journal

    The simple rebuttal to your observation is that we have more than a century of detailed weather reports.

    Not compared to today we don't.

    If we simply "weren't looking" before, as you suggest, then we would find similar extreme events across all 100+ years of records.

    Except in the many places where we weren't looking for those "similar extreme events" which was my point.

    Instead, we find almost all extremes in the last 20 years of records, whether we're looking at droughts, rainfall, cold spells, or heat spells.

    Heat spells yes, the rest no.

    Parent