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Viral Outbreaks Could be Predicted Two Years in Advance by Mathematical Model

posted by mrpg on Sunday August 26 2018, @05:15AM   Printer-friendly
from the what-about-data-on-suicides dept.

MrPlow writes:

Submitted via IRC for SoyCow1984

[...] The team used a mathematical model to simulate these epidemic patterns for each of the 20 most common types of enterovirus.

To build the model, they used Japanese enterovirus surveillance data. Japan keeps incredibly detailed information on enterovirus outbreaks, and the team used 14 years' worth of information to build the model (from 2000-2014).

They then tested the model, and found that it was able to predict subsequent outbreaks in 2015 and 2016 for most types of enterovirus.

Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180824090618.htm

Original Submission

 
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  • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:04AM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:04AM (#726462)

    Enteroviruses can cause paralysis. This is just like polio, except that vaccines aren't available.

    One of the awkward things about successful vaccination campaigns is that people lose their fear of disease. There are so many horrible diseases not covered! People are failing to be paranoid about germs. Without that, disease spreads.

    If people wouldn't be so damn unsanitary, all human-specific diseases would quickly disappear.

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  • (Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:15AM

    by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:15AM (#726464) Journal

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2442891/Poop-pills-feces-healthy-people-guts-patients-infections.html [dailymail.co.uk]

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @09:38PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @09:38PM (#726705)

    The virus can cause AFP, but not at the rates of poliovirus.