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Viral Outbreaks Could be Predicted Two Years in Advance by Mathematical Model

posted by mrpg on Sunday August 26 2018, @05:15AM   Printer-friendly
from the what-about-data-on-suicides dept.

MrPlow writes:

Submitted via IRC for SoyCow1984

[...] The team used a mathematical model to simulate these epidemic patterns for each of the 20 most common types of enterovirus.

To build the model, they used Japanese enterovirus surveillance data. Japan keeps incredibly detailed information on enterovirus outbreaks, and the team used 14 years' worth of information to build the model (from 2000-2014).

They then tested the model, and found that it was able to predict subsequent outbreaks in 2015 and 2016 for most types of enterovirus.

Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180824090618.htm

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:47PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:47PM (#726653)

    One of the local elementary school districts actively tells the teachers to ask the children about their vacations. They then use that information to estimate how sick kids will be and how many substitutes they will need. It is amazing how accurate they can be. For example, a family went on a 1.5 week cruise for their Winter Break. So, before the break even started, the school scheduled the room for disinfection at the end of every day. What do you know, by the end of the next week each and every kid in the class had at least one absence, but that particular disease didn't spread outside the class.