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posted by martyb on Sunday September 09 2018, @12:29PM   Printer-friendly
from the Better-right-than-dead dept.

A Princeton geologist has endured decades of ridicule for arguing that the fifth extinction was caused not by an asteroid but by a series of colossal volcanic eruptions.

Interesting info about science, history, death, un-scientific feeds and the value of persistence.

Here's an excerpt from https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/09/dinosaur-extinction-debate/565769/:

While the majority of her peers embraced the Chicxulub asteroid as the cause of the extinction, Keller remained a maligned and, until recently, lonely voice contesting it. She argues that the mass extinction was caused not by a wrong-place-wrong-time asteroid collision but by a series of colossal volcanic eruptions in a part of western India known as the Deccan Traps—a theory that was first proposed in 1978 and then abandoned by all but a small number of scientists. Her research, undertaken with specialists around the world and featured in leading scientific journals, has forced other scientists to take a second look at their data. "Gerta uncovered many things through the years that just don't sit with the nice, simple impact story that Alvarez put together," Andrew Kerr, a geochemist at Cardiff University, told me. "She's made people think about a previously near-uniformly accepted model."

Keller's resistance has put her at the core of one of the most rancorous and longest-running controversies in science. "It's like the Thirty Years' War," says Kirk Johnson, the director of the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. Impacters' case-closed confidence belies decades of vicious infighting, with the two sides trading accusations of slander, sabotage, threats, discrimination, spurious data, and attempts to torpedo careers. "I've never come across anything that's been so acrimonious," Kerr says. "I'm almost speechless because of it." Keller keeps a running list of insults that other scientists have hurled at her, either behind her back or to her face. She says she's been called a "bitch" and "the most dangerous woman in the world," who "should be stoned and burned at the stake."

[...] "It has all the aspects of a really nice story," Keller says of the asteroid theory. "It's just not true." (Cole Wilson)

This dispute illuminates the messy way that science progresses, and how this idealized process, ostensibly guided by objective reason and the search for truth, is shaped by ego, power, and politics. Keller has had to endure decades of ridicule to make scientists reconsider an idea they had confidently rejected. "Gerta had to fight very much to get into the position that she is in right now," says Wolfgang Stinnesbeck, a collaborator of Keller's from Heidelberg University. "It's thanks to her that the case is not closed."

Background:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerta_Keller


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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by AthanasiusKircher on Monday September 10 2018, @12:43PM (3 children)

    by AthanasiusKircher (5291) on Monday September 10 2018, @12:43PM (#732732) Journal

    Climate scientists are about the most biased people you could pick.

    By the logic, we should never believe the opinion of experts. All of those physicists and their darn "theory of relativity" BS -- what's up with them?? Everyone knows gravity works by tiny magical gnomes who push and pull things around.

    If you disagree with the orthodox opinion, your papers will not be published and you will not get tenure. All the reviewers have published papers that are orthodox, and would thus be threatened (invalidated even) if any non-orthodox theory were to succeed. Nobody can enter the set of "climate scientists" without first accepting the orthodox opinion.

    Ah yes, the conspiracy theory version of debate. It's all a grand conspiracy.

    Except the real question you should ask (if you were honest) is who has even more motivation to lie about these things. Oil companies, coal companies, all the huge businesses that depend on the public's continued ignorance of likely climate scenarios if we keep doing what we're doing -- they all have huge amounts of money invested in such things.

    Meanwhile, let's just for a moment assume you're right -- and a bunch of climate scientists are willing to sell themselves out and publish lies just so they can get tenure.

    Okay, then you've just proven that there's likely a significant number of climate scientists who are willing to publish things they don't actually believe just so they can make money.

    You know who has lots of money? Oil companies. Coal companies. And all those other businesses. And it would really be in their best interest if they could lower those "97% consensus" numbers or whatever. So, I'm sure there are such companies who would pay a climate scientist huge amounts of money (much more than most of them earn in tenure-track positions -- despite common perception, the vast majority of faculty at higher ed institutions aren't earning huge salaries) if they could be swayed to write studies that support the petroleum industry or whatever.

    So where are all of those people in the "pockets" of petroleum?? All of these climate scientists with no integrity and willing to sell their souls to get tenure, but they're not willing to earn a lot more money lying for industry? After all, it happens in a lot of other fields. We know a lot of pharma studies are bogus because they're done by scientists at pharma companies and biased in various ways. We know food studies about "X will cure cancer!" are frequently influenced by food industry lobby groups who hire their internal food scientists to do studies.

    So where the heck are all the climate scientists willing to do this for industry???

    If you actually follow your logical argument about who has motivation to do this, what you should actually conclude is that the absence of more than a few percent of dissenting climate scientists means even with potential incentives from the petroleum industry, etc., only a very small number of climate scientists are swayed.

    So either climate scientists just have a LOT more integrity than just about any other field, OR the facts are so utterly overwhelming in this case that even scientists who might be motivated by subsidies from the petrol industry, etc. can't figure out how to do it without it sounding stupid or disingenuous or whatever.

    Oh wait, the climate scientists are infamous for refusing to release full data.

    Yeah, just keep up with the conspiracy talk. It's the ultimate refuge of the conspiracy theorist when finally confronted with overwhelming proof against him -- "But, but, but -- they're hiding the real truth! We just don't have the real facts!"

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  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday September 10 2018, @01:11PM

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday September 10 2018, @01:11PM (#732744) Journal

    Climate scientists are about the most biased people you could pick.

    By the logic, we should never believe the opinion of experts. All of those physicists and their darn "theory of relativity" BS -- what's up with them?? Everyone knows gravity works by tiny magical gnomes who push and pull things around.

    Let's look at the actual reasoning here from the earlier post.

    If you disagree with the orthodox opinion, your papers will not be published and you will not get tenure.

    So no, magical gnomes are not the "logic". Boy, you're a bundle of irrationality today.

  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday September 10 2018, @01:22PM (1 child)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday September 10 2018, @01:22PM (#732746) Journal

    Except the real question you should ask (if you were honest) is who has even more motivation to lie about these things. Oil companies, coal companies, all the huge businesses that depend on the public's continued ignorance of likely climate scenarios if we keep doing what we're doing -- they all have huge amounts of money invested in such things.

    And on this note, let us note the remarkable absence of fossil fuel business from the propaganda war. They can afford to spend a couple of orders of magnitude more on this than they have.

    So either climate scientists just have a LOT more integrity than just about any other field, OR the facts are so utterly overwhelming in this case that even scientists who might be motivated by subsidies from the petrol industry, etc. can't figure out how to do it without it sounding stupid or disingenuous or whatever.

    Or three, all these parties have an interest in sustaining the extremely profitable affair. Please recall that the petrol industry has done quite well in these times of climate change with the key problem being too much supply.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 10 2018, @05:55PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 10 2018, @05:55PM (#732845)

      Go away you troll