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Mars trips may involve less radiation exposure than previously thought:
There's no question that the first human mission to Mars will be extremely dangerous. Some studies have suggested that the radiation levels would exceed the maximum career dose for a given astronaut, greatly increasing the risk of cancer and other illnesses. It might not be quite so bad as it sounds, though. Newly presented ESA ExoMars orbiter data indicates that astronauts would receive "at least" 60 percent of their maximum recommended career radiation exposure on a round trip to Mars that takes six months both ways. That's still several times what ISS crew members receive, but it's relatively gentle compared to what some had feared.
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Mars Trips May Involve Less Radiation Exposure Than Previously Thought
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There will be big changes for you but you will be happy.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Thursday September 20 2018, @10:41PM (3 children)
Careful - "theory" is one of those words scientists have redefined. A Theory is the final stage of scientific knowledge - a hypothesis that's been so thoroughly tested, and gathered such a solid body of evidence and widespread agreement over its validity that it is accepted as being reliable knowledge.
There is some debate about the distinction between a Theory and a Law - the best guideline I've encountered is that a Law is the mathematical formula describing *how* some aspect of the universe behaves, while a Theory is the conceptual interpretation of *why* the universe behaves in that fashion. But the use of Law also seems to be going out of style, perhaps in deference to the fact that it suggests an absolute truth, while pretty much all the famous ones have been disproven. Newton's Six Laws of Motion for example, though the three still-famous ones remain useful enough under almost all "normal" conditions to still be widely taught and used.
The word you're looking for is speculation, or perhaps conjecture. Which, depending on the field may take many years of refinement before it reaches the point where a testable hypothesis can even be formulated, and you may very likely start believing it along the way - the same way parents believe their children are especially smart and attractive. Eventually you reach the point where you can meaningfully formulate a series of testable hypothesis and start collecting evidence. And then, if you collect enough evidence to convince the scientific community of the validity of your conjecture, it will join the ranks of other Theories as being accepted "truth" - a.k.a. a more accurate approximate description of how (and why) the universe behaves than what came before.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 20 2018, @11:08PM (2 children)
I don't know any scientists who actually use the word 'theory" in the way you describe. Theory/model/hypothesis are all interchangeable terms.
Also, the way you describe the scientific method sounds idealistic. It seems more like what Lakatos described: http://www.lse.ac.uk/philosophy/science-and-pseudoscience-overview-and-transcript/ [lse.ac.uk]
Science advances by coming up with theories that make otherwise surprising predictions that turn out correct. Degenerating theories are those that keep needing ad hoc additions to deal with the new data that comes in (the theory lags the data). Its never possible to prove or disprove anything, so there is no concern with facts/truth/etc.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Friday September 21 2018, @12:23AM (1 child)
Theory of Relativity
Quantum Mechanical Theory
the two most thoroughly tested and broadly accepeted models ever conceived
They also use theory a lot in less well established contexts, but probably shouldn't when laymen can hear them. Or should come up with a better term for "theories most everyone believes".
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 21 2018, @12:54AM
I don't know about QM, but general relativity predicts the wrong thing all the time. They came up with the ad hoc theory of "dark matter" and "dark energy" to save it, and now 90% (or whatever) of the universe is made of stuff that can only be "detected" as deviations from the predictions of GR. So, yea its a perfect example of a degenerating theory.