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from the only-if-Betteridge-is-not-on-it dept.
How predictable is evolution? The answer has long been debated by biologists grappling with the extent to which history affects the repeatability of evolution.
A review published in the Nov. 9 issue of Science explores the complexity of evolution's predictability in extraordinary detail. In it, researchers at Kenyon College, Michigan State University and Washington University in St. Louis closely examine evidence from a number of empirical studies of evolutionary repeatability and contingency in an effort to fully interrogate ideas about contingency's role in evolution.
The question of evolution's predictability was notably raised by the late paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould, who advocated the view that evolution is contingent and unrepeatable in his 1989 book Wonderful Life. "Replay the tape a million times ... and I doubt that anything like Homo sapiens would ever evolve again," Gould mused, noting that being able to "replay the tape" and give history a do-over would be impossible. Yet since the publication of Wonderful Life, many evolutionary biologists have taken up this challenge and conducted their own versions of Gould's experiment, albeit on smaller scales. In doing so, they have reached different conclusions about the interplay between randomness of mutations, chance historical events, and directionality imparted by natural selection.
[...] Their review of comparative studies of "natural experiments" further illuminated evidence of evolution's predictability. Similar features can independently evolve in multiple species—for example, anole lizards of the Caribbean, which separately evolved traits such as the length of their legs and tails to ease their life in their specific habitats. Yet convergence in evolution does not always occur, as their review shows; contingency can play a strong role in divergent evolution of various traits.
Replaying the tape of life: Is it possible?
[Abstract]: Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape
[Source]: IS IT POSSIBLE TO REPLAY THE TAPE OF LIFE?
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Friday November 09 2018, @02:17PM (2 children)
(Score: 4, Interesting) by HiThere on Friday November 09 2018, @05:35PM (1 child)
I'm sure you could get things as similar as an ichthyosaur is to a dolphin. Anything much closer to any particular existing species would be unlikely.
Remember, chaos theory doesn't have quantum mechanics at its base, but chemistry does.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday November 11 2018, @06:14AM
I think a far portion of the time, you'd get something that wasn't even DNA-based cellular life. It'd be amazing to get something as similar as an ichthyosaur to a dolphin.