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from the only-if-Betteridge-is-not-on-it dept.
How predictable is evolution? The answer has long been debated by biologists grappling with the extent to which history affects the repeatability of evolution.
A review published in the Nov. 9 issue of Science explores the complexity of evolution's predictability in extraordinary detail. In it, researchers at Kenyon College, Michigan State University and Washington University in St. Louis closely examine evidence from a number of empirical studies of evolutionary repeatability and contingency in an effort to fully interrogate ideas about contingency's role in evolution.
The question of evolution's predictability was notably raised by the late paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould, who advocated the view that evolution is contingent and unrepeatable in his 1989 book Wonderful Life. "Replay the tape a million times ... and I doubt that anything like Homo sapiens would ever evolve again," Gould mused, noting that being able to "replay the tape" and give history a do-over would be impossible. Yet since the publication of Wonderful Life, many evolutionary biologists have taken up this challenge and conducted their own versions of Gould's experiment, albeit on smaller scales. In doing so, they have reached different conclusions about the interplay between randomness of mutations, chance historical events, and directionality imparted by natural selection.
[...] Their review of comparative studies of "natural experiments" further illuminated evidence of evolution's predictability. Similar features can independently evolve in multiple species—for example, anole lizards of the Caribbean, which separately evolved traits such as the length of their legs and tails to ease their life in their specific habitats. Yet convergence in evolution does not always occur, as their review shows; contingency can play a strong role in divergent evolution of various traits.
Replaying the tape of life: Is it possible?
[Abstract]: Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape
[Source]: IS IT POSSIBLE TO REPLAY THE TAPE OF LIFE?
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday November 09 2018, @02:23PM (4 children)
How predictable is VHS? The answer has long been debated by video nerds grappling with the extent to which history affects the repeatability of VHS.
(Score: 2) by requerdanos on Friday November 09 2018, @02:32PM
How predictable is VHS?
Perhaps someone, somewhere has made a career of theorizing that if you replay the tape of tape, Betamax turns out to be the successful consumer format. Or U-Matic.
People who actually understand the concept of replay, or the concept of tape, obviously are doing other things.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Friday November 09 2018, @02:40PM (2 children)
Listen, there is no debate, you hear me?
We watched that movie thousands of times between us; and the rebels destroyed that Death Star every... fucking... time!
Frustrating, I know, but VSH is very predictable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 3, Touché) by maxwell demon on Friday November 09 2018, @07:18PM (1 child)
You didn't pay enough attention to details. At some time, Han stopped shooting first.
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Friday November 09 2018, @10:06PM
Not on the VSH tapes, no.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford