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posted by martyb on Friday November 09 2018, @01:52PM   Printer-friendly
from the only-if-Betteridge-is-not-on-it dept.

How predictable is evolution? The answer has long been debated by biologists grappling with the extent to which history affects the repeatability of evolution.

A review published in the Nov. 9 issue of Science explores the complexity of evolution's predictability in extraordinary detail. In it, researchers at Kenyon College, Michigan State University and Washington University in St. Louis closely examine evidence from a number of empirical studies of evolutionary repeatability and contingency in an effort to fully interrogate ideas about contingency's role in evolution.

The question of evolution's predictability was notably raised by the late paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould, who advocated the view that evolution is contingent and unrepeatable in his 1989 book Wonderful Life. "Replay the tape a million times ... and I doubt that anything like Homo sapiens would ever evolve again," Gould mused, noting that being able to "replay the tape" and give history a do-over would be impossible. Yet since the publication of Wonderful Life, many evolutionary biologists have taken up this challenge and conducted their own versions of Gould's experiment, albeit on smaller scales. In doing so, they have reached different conclusions about the interplay between randomness of mutations, chance historical events, and directionality imparted by natural selection.

[...] Their review of comparative studies of "natural experiments" further illuminated evidence of evolution's predictability. Similar features can independently evolve in multiple species—for example, anole lizards of the Caribbean, which separately evolved traits such as the length of their legs and tails to ease their life in their specific habitats. Yet convergence in evolution does not always occur, as their review shows; contingency can play a strong role in divergent evolution of various traits.

Replaying the tape of life: Is it possible?

[Abstract]: Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape

[Source]: IS IT POSSIBLE TO REPLAY THE TAPE OF LIFE?


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  • (Score: 2) by requerdanos on Friday November 09 2018, @04:09PM (1 child)

    by requerdanos (5997) Subscriber Badge on Friday November 09 2018, @04:09PM (#759910) Journal

    MichaelDavidCrawford: While some particle interactions will have the same results, many of them won't.

    mhajicek: It depends on whether quantum phenomena are random or deterministic.

    That quantum phenomena occur with probability instead of certainly is a good point.

    I believe that it's an open question as to whether the progression is (primarily) a macroscopic or quantum phenomenon, that is, whether it is dependent upon newtonian rules, or spooky ones.

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  • (Score: 2) by mhajicek on Friday November 09 2018, @05:58PM

    by mhajicek (51) on Friday November 09 2018, @05:58PM (#759966)

    As I understand it, in the probabilistic model, every time an atom or particle radiates a particle the direction is random. That means radiation from the sun will have a different pattern every time the "tape" is run, and each DNA strand will be subject to different mutations.

    --
    The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek