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posted by martyb on Friday November 09 2018, @01:52PM   Printer-friendly
from the only-if-Betteridge-is-not-on-it dept.

How predictable is evolution? The answer has long been debated by biologists grappling with the extent to which history affects the repeatability of evolution.

A review published in the Nov. 9 issue of Science explores the complexity of evolution's predictability in extraordinary detail. In it, researchers at Kenyon College, Michigan State University and Washington University in St. Louis closely examine evidence from a number of empirical studies of evolutionary repeatability and contingency in an effort to fully interrogate ideas about contingency's role in evolution.

The question of evolution's predictability was notably raised by the late paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould, who advocated the view that evolution is contingent and unrepeatable in his 1989 book Wonderful Life. "Replay the tape a million times ... and I doubt that anything like Homo sapiens would ever evolve again," Gould mused, noting that being able to "replay the tape" and give history a do-over would be impossible. Yet since the publication of Wonderful Life, many evolutionary biologists have taken up this challenge and conducted their own versions of Gould's experiment, albeit on smaller scales. In doing so, they have reached different conclusions about the interplay between randomness of mutations, chance historical events, and directionality imparted by natural selection.

[...] Their review of comparative studies of "natural experiments" further illuminated evidence of evolution's predictability. Similar features can independently evolve in multiple species—for example, anole lizards of the Caribbean, which separately evolved traits such as the length of their legs and tails to ease their life in their specific habitats. Yet convergence in evolution does not always occur, as their review shows; contingency can play a strong role in divergent evolution of various traits.

Replaying the tape of life: Is it possible?

[Abstract]: Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape

[Source]: IS IT POSSIBLE TO REPLAY THE TAPE OF LIFE?


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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by HiThere on Friday November 09 2018, @05:41PM (3 children)

    by HiThere (866) Subscriber Badge on Friday November 09 2018, @05:41PM (#759960) Journal

    The reason there appears to be an increase in complexity over time is two-fold.
    1) We're biased to notice large entities.
    2) You can only get so simple without becoming sub-optimal. There's a left hand wall.

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  • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Friday November 09 2018, @06:03PM (2 children)

    by HiThere (866) Subscriber Badge on Friday November 09 2018, @06:03PM (#759970) Journal

    Well, actually there's a right hand wall too, but it's not as firm. The top limit of complexity is related to how well your code corrects for copying errors.

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    • (Score: 2) by Arik on Friday November 09 2018, @08:01PM (1 child)

      by Arik (4543) on Friday November 09 2018, @08:01PM (#760050) Journal
      "The top limit of complexity is related to how well your code corrects for copying errors."

      In a biological context it's a lot more limited than that.

      More complex organisms tend to be more finely tuned to their environment. This is what permits them to arise and thrive, of course, but it also makes them more sensitive to changes in that environment, more likely to be wiped out by a change that simpler organisms might take in stride.
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      • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Saturday November 10 2018, @01:38AM

        by HiThere (866) Subscriber Badge on Saturday November 10 2018, @01:38AM (#760196) Journal

        You're talking about how successful they are, and those are real limits. But the limit on complexity of the code depends on copying fidelity. And that's also a real limit. That's one reason why mammals have such intensive fidelity checks on their code, and cells with erroneous code tend to be destroyed. (Of course, cancer is another reason.)

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