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Elon Musk Says There's a '70 Percent' Chance He'll Move to Mars:
Elon Musk has talked about personally heading to Mars before, but how likely is he to make the trip, really? Well, he just put a number on it. In an interview for the Axios on HBO documentary series, Musk said there was a "70 percent" chance he'll go to Mars. There have been a "recent number of breakthroughs" that have made it possible, he said. And as he hinted before, it'd likely be a one-way trip -- he expects to "move there."
The executive also rejected the idea that traveling to Mars could be an "escape hatch for the rich" in its current form. He noted that an ad for going to Mars would be "like Shackleton's ad for going to the Antarctic," which (though likely not real) made clear how dangerous and the South Pole journey was. Even if you make it to Mars, you'll spend all your time building the base and struggling to survive harsh conditions, Musk said. And while it might be possible to come back, it's far from guaranteed. As with climbing Everest, Musk believes it's all about the "challenge."
The interview is available on YouTube.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 27 2018, @01:41AM (4 children)
Musk's own Falcon Heavy could deliver a warhead to Mars, if the timing is right. Doing the same with the Moon is much, much simpler. Think that moon people can shoot it down? Now consider that it will be approaching the surface of the Moon with the Earth's escape velocity, about 11.1 km/s, plus or minus the Moon's orbital speed (1 km/s), even if the warhead does not accelerate on its own. Try to shoot *that* down.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by edIII on Tuesday November 27 2018, @02:29AM (3 children)
Sure. I only have, what, on average 9 hours to do that? How much propellant are you going to use to accelerate it? If you make it go too fast, you also sacrifice mobility. Meaning, it won't be easy to evade, unless you bring more propellant for just that. There is no nuke capable of going to the moon on its own either (yet), but would instead be a retrofitted craft of some kind. Doubtfully designed to evade targets, or built from a purely military perspective.
In 9 hours I'm pretty sure we could guarantee the Earth's brutal death with a couple dozen (if not more) heavy asteroids on the way there. Do you divert the nuke and attack the first asteroid on the way? Stay the course and add more nukes? You are assuming this nuke could just fly straight and not have to navigate an asteroid field. Ever heard of chaff? With 9 hours Lunar citizens could take asteroids and smash them together creating a cloud of small rocks. Try to navigate through *that*. A rock the size of a quarter could take a nuke at the right velocity. So the faster you send this nuke, the less you can evade, the less you have to withstand a fucking screw taking you out :)
With lunar escape velocity being what it is, the Moon has a vastly easier time in managing objects in its orbit, and putting them there. I would imagine that mining would be pretty important on the Moon, and why would you *not* attempt to grab asteroids and move them to lunar orbit for processing? That amount of precious metal isn't going to be off limits for any reason, especially since that much gold and platinum could be a game changer for humanity. Some neat tech can be made with platinum, but would result in multimillion dollar water engines that couldn't be made in sufficient capacity to make a real difference. I absolutely believe capturing large asteroids would be the first order of things to be done with the Moon.
The Moon has quite a few strategic advantages best expressed by the saying, "It's over Anakin! I have the high ground!". Hey, I'm sure it will work out for the super tech advanced Earthlings, their escape velocity requirements, and being at the damn near bottom of the gravity well ;)
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday November 27 2018, @11:26AM (2 children)
From where? Lot's of matter on the Moon, but it's at the bottom of a significant gravity well. A rebellious colony won't have the infrastructure to drop that kind of mass on Earth. Anything else is years to decades out and could be easily intercepted by the people with nukes.
Also, don't forget the atmosphere. It'll stop most of the box car-sized projectiles, particularly, if they're fragments.
The real danger is that someone on the Moon could dump enough random mass into Earth orbit to take out all the satellites.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 27 2018, @09:47PM (1 child)
I'd suggest reading the book. Sure, your assumptions on a Moon colony may not match the requirements yet but you may be surprised as the reasonably limited gravity well that the Moon poses.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday November 27 2018, @10:45PM