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The technology of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is progressing rapidly, but have we really thought through how they'll work in reality?
In its report on AVs in Australia, Austroads (the association of Australasian road transport and traffic agencies) paints both positive and negative scenarios for the future.
The positive scenario suggests that AVs could reduce car ownership and use thanks to a fleet of shared and connected AVs. These AVs would roam the city, filling in gaps in the timetables and fixed routes of a superior and cheaper public transport network.
But for this scenario to work, AVs must be shared and not privately owned, and they must complement a robust public transport system that accommodates most trips. These mechanisms are either weak or nonexistent in most Australian cities, suggesting it's unlikely the arrival of AVs will reduce our dependence on private cars.
Shared autonomous cars should be as much fun as riding in the back of a New York cab.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Hyperturtle on Thursday December 06 2018, @02:41PM (2 children)
I don't understand why anyone would think the number of automobiles would decrease if the pilots were removed.
I'd expect there to be even more of them. Get rid of the responsibility and liability of being licensed and insured to drive, and everyone will want one. Make the street cars electrified and have solar panels on windows and roofs of the tall urban buildings, and it can even go green at the same time.
Only people that love walking, or are sick of being stuck in the traffic of the future that turned out to be just as gridlocked as the traffic of the past, will be walking. I expect many people will happily watch advertisements in their enclosed bubble.
If you have not read the recent articles about how carmakers are envisioning the future of cars, they expect to have no windows and screens all throughout. If you want to see outside, you can watch a video feed. That sounds like a great way to guide unsuspecting people to their dooms, be it political, criminal, or just hacker anarchy.
We already have evidence that Tesla owners mentally autopilot their way to a premature demise even when surrounded by windows and the ability to see outside. Maybe that tech will get better and accidents like those will be an absolute rarity, but rider obliviousness will definitely will benefit anyone controlling the system. That entertainment system is going to play ads to a captive audience and you know there'll be no way to avoid it.
(Score: 2) by Nuke on Thursday December 06 2018, @08:04PM (1 child)
Neither do I. I am just dumbstruck by the idea that AVs would reduce the amount of traffic WHY? Why would anyone think so? Many people now in buses and trains would switch to these things.
Even sharing of AVs (again WHY? - car sharing and AVs are orthogonal concepts) does not reduce traffic. It might reduce the number of vehicles in parking lots or on house driveways, but it would not reduce the number making journeys at any one time. In fact anything that might make cars cheaper (or greener) to run, as car sharing might in theory, run will increase traffic. I think of Jevons Paradox [wikipedia.org].
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday December 06 2018, @09:21PM