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posted by takyon on Sunday December 09 2018, @09:35PM   Printer-friendly
from the pump-and-dump dept.

The U.S. Just Became a Net Oil Exporter for the First Time in 75 Years:

America turned into a net oil exporter last week, breaking almost 75 years of continued dependence on foreign oil and marking a pivotal -- even if likely brief -- moment toward what U.S. President Donald Trump has branded as "energy independence."

The shift to net exports is the dramatic result of an unprecedented boom in American oil production, with thousands of wells pumping from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico to the Bakken in North Dakota to the Marcellus in Pennsylvania.

While the country has been heading in that direction for years, this week's dramatic shift came as data showed a sharp drop in imports and a jump in exports to a record high. Given the volatility in weekly data, the U.S. will likely remain a small net importer most of the time.

"We are becoming the dominant energy power in the world," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. "But, because the change is gradual over time, I don't think it's going to cause a huge revolution, but you do have to think that OPEC is going to have to take that into account when they think about cutting."

The shale revolution has transformed oil wildcatters into billionaires and the U.S. into the world's largest petroleum producer, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia. The power of OPEC has been diminished, undercutting one of the major geopolitical forces of the last half century.

I can see short-term benefits (avoiding another 1973 Oil Crisis), but am concerned about the long-term strategy. Given a fixed supply of oil, isn't the US just racing to deplete its resources and therefore setting itself up for a later "oil crisis"? The only hope I see is a huge and continued emphasis in transitioning to alternative energy sources (be it solar, wind, and/or nuclear) and thus ween itself from dependence on foreign supplies.


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  • (Score: 5, Interesting) by Thexalon on Sunday December 09 2018, @10:00PM (4 children)

    by Thexalon (636) on Sunday December 09 2018, @10:00PM (#772095)

    isn't the US just racing to deplete its resources

    Yes, that is exactly the goal.

    The oil companies know full well that climate change is real, and a problem. However, they've spent billions on buying up the right to take oil out of the ground, those rights are a large percentage of their assets, and if they are unable to pump that oil out they're screwed big time. Their business strategy, therefor, has consisted of 3 things:
    1. Lobbying campaigns to keep the US government and many other governments from taking substantial action to prevent climate change, which would probably involve them leaving some of their oil in the ground.
    2. Public disinformation campaigns to keep the public in democratic countries from voting to make the government take substantial action to prevent climate change.
    3. Pump out all the oil as quickly as they possibly can, using whatever means they can.

    Their behavior is basically identical to a group of miscreants who smash in a store window and are trying to grab as much as they can before the cops arrive.

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  • (Score: 2) by Snotnose on Monday December 10 2018, @12:45AM (3 children)

    by Snotnose (1623) on Monday December 10 2018, @12:45AM (#772166)

    The problem with your argument is technology. 10 years ago we couldn't frack our way out of a paper bag. Now fracking has turned us into the #1 exporter.

    What your talking about is basically market timing. You have a huge infusion of stuff. Stuff may or may not be worthless in x years. Closer you get to x the more you get for your stuff. Do you put as much stuff to market as you can as fast as you can? Or hoard your stuff, hoping to guess how close to x you can get before your stuff becomes worthless?

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    • (Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Monday December 10 2018, @10:47AM

      by PiMuNu (3823) on Monday December 10 2018, @10:47AM (#772309)

      > Now fracking has turned us into the #1 exporter.

      No. Now US is almost export/import neutral.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 10 2018, @05:41PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 10 2018, @05:41PM (#772438)

      The problem with your argument is technology. 10 years ago we couldn't frack our way out of a paper bag. Now fracking has turned us into the #1 exporter.

      Not quite that simple. The basic process and technology of hydraulic fracturing hasn't substantially changed in the last ten years. What improved was some of the technology used down-hole, allowing fracturing to become vastly cheaper in terms of time and man-hours required.

      Ten years ago, fracturing ten different 'zones' in a single well could easily take over a month, requiring multiple visits by both a service rig and the frac company. Now, it can be done in less than 24 hours, with two service rig visits and one visit by the frac guys. Depending on the tech used, they may not even need the service rig, just a coiled tubing truck.

      It's not that we're fracturing paper bags any better than we used to, it's that we're doing a lot more, for a lot less.

    • (Score: 2) by Thexalon on Tuesday December 11 2018, @12:42AM

      by Thexalon (636) on Tuesday December 11 2018, @12:42AM (#772676)

      You seem to be confusing global climate change regulation with peak oil. The fear is not that the crude oil will run out and thus become really expensive, it's that crude oil will be awash in the market but it will be illegal to sell all of it. So they're selling it now, while they can.

      --
      The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.