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By 2050 there will be 9 billion carbon-burning, plastic-polluting, calorie-consuming people on the planet. By 2100, that number will balloon to 11 billion, pushing society into a Soylent Green scenario. Such dire population predictions aren't the stuff of sci-fi; those numbers come from one of the most trusted world authorities, the United Nations.
But what if they're wrong? Not like, off by a rounding error, but like totally, completely goofed?
That's the conclusion Canadian journalist John Ibbitson and political scientist Darrel Bricker come to in their newest book, Empty Planet, due out February 5th. After painstakingly breaking down the numbers for themselves, the pair arrived at a drastically different prediction for the future of the human species. "In roughly three decades, the global population will begin to decline," they write. "Once that decline begins, it will never end."
The World Might Actually Run Out of People (archive)
Who do you think is right ? The United Nations or Darrel Bricker/John Ibbitson ?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 05 2019, @12:49AM (4 children)
Also, it seems like all I ever hear from the UN is extrapolation of a trend continuing as is into the future. Do they do anything else data-wise?
(Score: 2) by driverless on Tuesday February 05 2019, @03:03AM (2 children)
That's where the problem lies. If you look at the stats, most first-world nations have static or slightly shrinking populations. In the last few years, the population growth of the bogeymen countries (Muslim majority, which are heavily studied by people worried about bogeymen) have also started to drop dramatically, and in some cases go negative. That leaves only truly impoverished countries, mostly in Africa, where you need to have as many kids as possible to ensure (a) some survive and (b) you've got a workforce to look after you. So it could be that both parties are right, older trends were for indefinite growth, newer is for slow stagnation as there's no longer any need to breed like rabbits.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 05 2019, @01:18PM
c) You have girls to sell for when you run out of cash
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 06 2019, @08:31PM
As if they are having more kids due to some logic. LMAO. They are having more kids because they don't have jobs, nor birth control, and are laying around fucking like monkeys all day.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 05 2019, @10:03AM
Yes, yes they do. The analysis is based on population growth projections as compared to economic status (including future economic status) and based on historic population trends in the now rich countries. They don't just pull numbers out of their asses.
It's like layman trying to comment on software and say "can't they do anything right? Always bugs and that kenjinger doesn't work anymore!".. Little knowledge and dangers of it? Remember?