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Opinion: Owning a Car Will Soon Be as Quaint as Owning a Horse
I will die before I buy another car. I don't say that because I am particularly old or sick, but because I am at the front end of one of the next major secular trends in tech. Owning a car will soon be like owning a horse — a quaint hobby, an interesting rarity and a cool thing to take out for a spin on the weekend.
Before you object, let me be clear: I will drive in cars until I die. But the concept of actually purchasing, maintaining, insuring and garaging an automobile in the next few decades? Finished.
[...] It's obviously an easier decision if you live near a major metropolitan area, like I do, where the alternatives — cars and then car pools and then bikes and now scooters — are myriad. (Why, by the way, this is a revolution led by private companies instead of public transportation is an important topic for another day.) In other countries, often with denser populations, there are even more ideas bubbling up, from auto-rickshaws and motorbike taxis to new bus services.
Obviously, the biggest change will be the advent of truly autonomous vehicles, which are still years or even decades in the future. But in the meantime I am going to lean into this future all I can, and will chronicle the efforts over the next year, its costs and its benefits and how I get there. Or not.
(Score: 2) by stretch611 on Monday March 25 2019, @05:29PM
I'm middle-aged, I have a car in good shape with a lifetime powertrain warranty (and the way I keep my cars, I expect it to last another 20 years.) I do not expect to own another car in my lifetime even though I have owned 8 other cars previously.
Thanks to the internet, I can work at home, shop at home, and pretty much do the majority of things online. For the majority of my shopping, I prefer the convenience of shopping online. I do prefer getting groceries myself, but most supermarkets now have online ordering with delivery. Even fast food can now be ordered, and regular restaurants are well on their way to doing the same. Actually, if you google "virtual kitchens" you will see that chefs/cooks will not even need a restaurant in the future, but will rent a kitchen/freezer to create a whole menu for delivery.
Fedex is testing robots (in TN) which will do last mile deliveries. It is testing with retail clients to offer same day delivery of purchase... Essentially, order online from target, and have a fedex robot deliver it within hours (or probably minutes.) Amazon has considered drones for last mile deliveries and every now and then you hear of "Pizza Robots" that not only deliver but will cook the pizza on the way to the delivery... talk about fresh.
Every day the things that can be done online without the need to travel somewhere and do it in person increases. Even things that some people think will always need to be in person will end up being done online... Think of a Dr appointment... How long before they can see you with video conferencing combined with a picture of what is wrong, or a phone app to determine heart rate and temperature will allow them to make a diagnosis remotely? Add in a robot delivery of medications minutes later and how often will you need to go to the Dr's office? You will do it for convenience, and so you don't spread your germs to others or have their germs spread to you.
The less you travel, the more expensive each trip costs; as a function of spreading the cost of a purchasing a car, insurance, maintenance, registration, and ad valorem taxes across time/trips. (i.e. a $500 car payment every month makes for very expensive trips if you only use a car once or twice a month.) Eventually, uber, lyft, and the next yet-to-be-announced company becomes sound fiscal advice, and as mentioned by others, owning a car will be something only the rich do.
Autonomous technology will only make the fiscal soundness of this takeover happen quicker. The most expensive part of uber and lyft is not the cost of the cars, but the cost of the driver. Eliminate the need for the driver and competition will drop prices like a rock. I don't even expect uber or lyft to make it in the long term... right now both companies work with drivers and their personal vehicles... they will need to transition to owning their own large fleets. It will be a much easier transition for rental car companies to start offering autonomous car service, and watch them undercut uber and lyft prices right away... they will need to as renting a car will also go the way of the dodo (and horse and buggy) and unlike uber, the rental car companies already have large car fleets across the country. (It may even happen that actual car manufacturers start offering autonomous car service as a way to increase their finances as retail sales dry up.)
If you are in a large city right now, in many cases due to public transportation you can already live easily without a car. Day by day, it will happen in smaller cities and metro areas. It will not happen in rural areas immediately, but ultimately it will happen there as well. With autonomous technology, and no driver to pay, a rural fare is just a longer trip... and in time the cost factors will make car ownership in the rural areas just as fiscally unwise as it is in the city. And while getting a car to pick you up may take a little longer than it does in the city, as also mentioned, as long as you schedule it in advance, a car can be at your doorstep the minute you want it there.
Now with 5 covid vaccine shots/boosters altering my DNA :P