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posted by chromas on Wednesday March 27 2019, @12:34PM   Printer-friendly
from the vax-papers-please dept.

Emergency Declared in NY over Measles: Unvaccinated Barred from Public Spaces:

Plagued by a tenacious outbreak of measles that began last October, New York's Rockland County declared a state of emergency Tuesday and issued a directive barring unvaccinated children from all public spaces.

Effective at midnight Wednesday, March 27, anyone aged 18 or younger who has not been vaccinated against the measles is prohibited from public spaces in Rockland for 30 days or until they get vaccinated. Public spaces are defined broadly in the directive as any places:

[W]here more than 10 persons are intended to congregate for purposes such as civic, governmental, social, or religious functions, or for recreation or shopping, or for food or drink consumption, or awaiting transportation, or for daycare or educational purposes, or for medical treatment. A place of public assembly shall also include public transportation vehicles, including but not limited to, publicly or privately owned buses or trains...

The directive follows an order from the county last December that barred unvaccinated children from schools that did not reach a minimum of 95 percent vaccination rate. That order—and the directive issued today—are intended to thwart the long-standing outbreak, which has sickened 153 people, mostly children.

What were they waiting for? A pox on them all?


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @06:11PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @06:11PM (#820832)

    I don't know how you came up with that "suggesting 95% efficacy", it seems completely bogus mathematics.
    You cannot calculate the efficacy from the given numbers.
    If we normalize the number of infected to 100 (with 4 being vaccinated) and assume that a fraction "f" of the population came in contact with the virus, equally between vaccinated and unvaccinated (unlikely, but we need some assumptions at least).
    Then the total population "t" must be at least t >= 96/f (here already we have an error, some of those not vaccinated will be immune).
    Now we have a vaccination rate "r", which for this area is UNKNOWN.
    The number of vaccinated would thus be t*r >= (96/f)*r.
    Applying the exposure fraction "f" to get those vaccinated and exposed would be >= 96*r.
    As of those 4 got sick, so 4/(96*r) is the fraction of those vaccinated and exposed who got sick.
    Which means efficacy of the vaccine would come out at 1 - 4/(96*r).
    If you A PRIORY assume 95% vaccination rate, that would give a > 96% efficacy of the vaccination.
    However it would be quite possible that half of those not vaccinated were already immune, in which case you would come out with a > 98% efficacy.
    Or you could assume that those vaccinated belong to a different social circle and are less likely to be exposed, and then you get a lower efficacy.
    So without clear data on the number of vaccinated people with exposure you can't calculate how effective the vaccination was.