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A NASA thought experiment called, Defending Human Civilisation From Supervolcanic Eruptions, stated that a supervolcano eruption was more likely to happen in the future than an asteroid hitting the earth, according to the Daily Star. It said: “Supervolcanic eruptions occur more frequently than a large asteroid or comet impacts that would have a similarly catastrophic effect to human civilization.” Jet Propulsion Laboratory researchers found that collisions from asteroids which are more than 2km in diameter occurred “half as often as supervolcanic eruptions”.
[...]Yellowstone Caldera[*] is classed as a supervolcano which erupted 60,000 years ago and again 60,000 years before that.
Although there is no guarantee, if the volcano follows the same pattern then it is now due for another eruption.
Researchers have found that if a supervolcano like Yellowstone did erupt, then a “volcanic winter” would ensue which could surpass the “amount of stored food worldwide”.
People living on another continent would not be spared from the aftermath of a supervolcanic eruption.
[*] Wikipedia entry on the Yellowstone Caldera (aka Supervolcano).
The referenced NASA document — Defending Human Civilization From Supervolcanic Eruptions (pdf) — is less sensational; here is the abstract from the paper:
Large volcanic eruptions greater or equal to a magnitude 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (i.e., supervolcanic eruptions) eject >10 15 kg of ash and sulfate aerosols, sufficient to blanket sizeable fractions of continents and create a regional or global "volcanic winter." Such events could seriously reduce worldwide agricultural production for multiple years, causing mass famine. Supervolcanic eruptions occur more frequently than large asteroid or comet impacts that would have a similarly catastrophic effect to human civilization, especially now that many asteroid orbits have been mapped. We assess whether future supervolcanic eruptions could be dampened, delayed, or prevented by engineering solutions.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Wednesday April 10 2019, @01:17PM (1 child)
The Black Death wasn't even remotely a megadisaster, the two biggest reasons being:
1) Hardly anyone died: It was mostly confined to Europe and nearby portions of Asia, and only killed around 30-60% of the population, while most of the world was untouched. A megadisaster can reasonably be expected to kill at least 80-90% of the global population, eventually quite possibly into the high 90s or even 100%.
2) Only humans were affected: If you survived the black death, the fields and woods were still thriving and healthy to support you - probably better than ever thanks to the lowered demands of the human population. In a megadisaster pretty much the entire global ecosystem is hit just as hard or harder than us - there will be no thriving ecosystem to support the survivors. And it will likely be centuries or millenia before there is, as new species will have to evolve to fill the many niches important niches left empty by the extinction of most species on Earth.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday April 11 2019, @11:33AM
Then Yellowstone and those asteroid strikes probably aren't megadisasters either. There's probably been hundreds to thousands of supervolcano eruptions since the end of the dinosaurs without significant impact on the fossil record. Similarly, there's been a number of significant asteroid strikes (though none as big as the one that ended the dinosaurs).
Which is still a lot of the world's population dead. I brought it up precisely because that's the scale of a Yellowstone eruption - IF we don't bother to prep for it when we figure out it is coming.