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posted by chromas on Monday April 22 2019, @09:23PM   Printer-friendly

The Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) has found that NASA is unlikely to send humans on a mission near Mars (not including a landing on the surface of Mars) any sooner than 2037:

An independent report concluded that NASA has no chance of sending humans to Mars by 2033, with the earliest such a mission could be flown being the late 2030s.

[...] STPI, at NASA's direction, used the strategy the agency had laid out in its "Exploration Campaign" report, which projects the continued use of the Space Launch System and Orion and development of the lunar Gateway in the 2020s. That would be followed by the Deep Space Transport (DST), a crewed spacecraft that would travel from cislunar space to Mars and back. NASA would also develop lunar landers are related system to support crewed missions to the lunar surface, while also working on systems for later missions to the surface of Mars.

That work, the STPI report concluded, will take too long to complete in time to support a 2033 mission. "We find that even without budget constraints, a Mars 2033 orbital mission cannot be realistically scheduled under NASA's current and notional plans," the report states. "Our analysis suggests that a Mars orbital mission could be carried out no earlier than the 2037 orbital window without accepting large technology development, schedule delay, cost overrun, and budget shortfall risks."

That schedule is driven by the technology risks associated in particular with the Deep Space Transport, including life support systems and propulsion, that require long lead times. A mission to Mars launching in 2033, the report concluded, would need to have critical technologies tested by 2022, which is unlikely. Moving ahead without completing those technologies first, the report stated, will "dramatically increase technology and schedule risks for the DST and could force the DST design to be revised if any one of these technology testing programs reveals problems."


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  • (Score: 5, Funny) by bob_super on Tuesday April 23 2019, @12:48AM (6 children)

    by bob_super (1357) on Tuesday April 23 2019, @12:48AM (#833622)

    Most of them look like you can skip the drying step.

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  • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday April 23 2019, @01:29AM (5 children)

    by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday April 23 2019, @01:29AM (#833644) Journal

    For engineering purposes, "look like" != "are"

    --
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
    • (Score: 2) by bob_super on Tuesday April 23 2019, @08:15AM (4 children)

      by bob_super (1357) on Tuesday April 23 2019, @08:15AM (#833764)

      Look, we have already spent decades fruitlessly dreaming of Mars, so you should more open-minded and see the possibilities.

      • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday April 23 2019, @08:36AM (2 children)

        by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday April 23 2019, @08:36AM (#833769) Journal

        I'll see possibilities when I hear someone managed to land a functional nuclear powered excavator on Mars.
        So far, we have a luxury car in space and one functional rover [wikipedia.org] that was able to drill to the impressive depth of 5cm (that's 2 inches) but now the drilling function is disabled.

        --
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
        • (Score: 2) by bob_super on Tuesday April 23 2019, @09:08AM (1 child)

          by bob_super (1357) on Tuesday April 23 2019, @09:08AM (#833774)

          5 cm ? We have already done better than that [wikipedia.org].
          A full Senate Ship would definitely break that record, considering how dense they are.

          • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday April 23 2019, @09:41AM

            by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday April 23 2019, @09:41AM (#833780) Journal

            Problem is the US constitution guarantees a continuous supply of senators.
            Without the sustained capability to cover the deliveries in soil, those senators will dissipate in a fine dust - a complete waste of organic matter.

            --
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
      • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday April 23 2019, @01:41PM

        by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday April 23 2019, @01:41PM (#833836) Journal

        Look, we have already spent decades fruitlessly dreaming of Mars, so you should more open-minded and see the possibilities.

        I'll see your possibilities, and I'll raise you practicalities.

        --
        People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.