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posted by
martyb
on Thursday May 23 2019, @05:06AM
from the here's-hoping-the-fat-lady-has-laryngitis dept.
from the here's-hoping-the-fat-lady-has-laryngitis dept.
Netflix changed how we watch TV, but it didn't really change what we watch...
Netflix has achieved its incredible growth by taking distribution away from cable companies. Instead of watching The Office on cable, people now watch The Office on Netflix.
This edge isn't sustainable.
...
Disney's cable business has stagnated over the past seven years. But in about 175 days, Disney is set to launch its own streaming service called Disney+.It's going to charge $6.99/month—around $6 cheaper than Netflix.
And it's pulling all its content off of Netflix.
This is a big deal.
No more Bunk'd on Netflix? Nooooooooooooooo...
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Netflix has 175 Days Left to Pull Off a Miracle... Or It's All Over
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(Score: 5, Interesting) by bob_super on Thursday May 23 2019, @08:25AM (18 children)
They don't get to survive. Content is being pulled by the networks, and Net Neutrality's death means that the giant ISPs will squeeze users' Netflix's bandwidth, offering instead "unlimited downloads" on that content they just happen to own.
One-two punch. No way out in the US, unless the next president has a D attached, and pushes for restoring NN quickly.
Netflix's assets will get picked by someone pretty cheap, in less than 5 years, maybe as little as 3.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by VLM on Thursday May 23 2019, @11:51AM (6 children)
Its more of a minority party issue. If the next prez is -D then suddenly restoring NN will be confusingly impossible for the -D party and it'll become a -R issue with people saying "if only the next prez is a -R, then we get NN back"
(Score: 5, Insightful) by TheGratefulNet on Thursday May 23 2019, @02:11PM (2 children)
quite wrong. its always been the R policy to short change the common person to to prop up the 'businessman'.
the anti-NN is perfectly aligned with R policies.
if an R gets in, he'll continue to fuck the regular person over. its what they do!
zero chance an R will undo anything along these lines. these days, the R's are mostly about 'whatever the black guy did, we HAVE to undo'. just for spite (its called 'stigginit'; aka, sticking it to 'the libs'. even if it makes your own life harder, as long as you did something harmful to those horrible libs, its ok. that's their MO and its how you can know they are an R).
this 'both sides are bad' is 100% wrong, in this case. all the bad is on the side of the R's. by design, in fact.
"It is now safe to switch off your computer."
(Score: 0, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 23 2019, @04:20PM
Both Ds and Rs are owned by big business interests, just different ones. Neither has ever done shit for small business owners.
(Score: 2) by All Your Lawn Are Belong To Us on Friday May 24 2019, @02:07PM
Thinking both, either, or neither side is "bad" depends utterly on how one defines "bad" and "Good". An objectivist would believe that such definitions should be accepted by all, is all.
Despite that, the second that the D's get control of both houses (and/or the Presidency) they will be mostly about 'whatever the orange guy did, we HAVE to undo'. And neither side will truly be doing for spite, but to prove control and try and align things with their ideology, even if it drives unemployment up because as long as those stupid neocons get a comeuuppance it's OK.
And it's actually because bipartisanship is dead because people no longer judge the effectiveness of their leaders on how well they cooperate but rather how well they prove to their bases how much they stuck it to the other side. On both sides, just with different spin. Because these days independents have no power and it's all about the base 'bout the base 'bout the base (no dissenters).
This sig for rent.
(Score: 4, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Thursday May 23 2019, @03:58PM (1 child)
Dems implement NN
Republicans repeal NN
Yet, somehow, you don't think Dems will want to implement NN again?
Such "both sides" bullshit.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 23 2019, @04:21PM
That is what happens when people willingly hand their brains to someone who enjoys fava beans with a nice chianti.
(Score: 3, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Thursday May 23 2019, @04:27PM
Guess what the Dems were last time they implemented Net Neutrality: the minority party
Guess who the prez was last time they implemented Net Neutrality: -D, Obama
This is some "Insightful" theory you've got.
(Score: 2) by jmorris on Thursday May 23 2019, @05:48PM (4 children)
This discussion is not about net neutrality. Stop trying to hijack every discussion to a Prog talking point, it is becoming as sad and predictable as when every story has to work in a climate change hook.
Netflix is not worried about network neutrality, cable operators (i.e. ISPs) are building Netflix support into their cable boxes. Netflix is not worried about the delivery side of the operation at this point. The "buffering" monster is tamed, throttling is not an issue, etc. Their survival now hinges on, as the article we are discussing today (try to keep up numbnuts) is whether they can maintain access to sufficient content to keep subscribers interested. They think they can create their own, math says that isn't likely. The whole Netflix business case was always improbable and a short term adaptation to a temporary niche, but they have billions of market cap depending on them being the future of TV. Haha. Fools and their money, etc.
(Score: 4, Informative) by bob_super on Thursday May 23 2019, @06:18PM (3 children)
When it comes to Netflix survival, NN is not a "Prog talking point". It's front and center.
When NN got repealed, I stated multiple times that Netflix was done for. The NN repeal is why the ISP-owned content generators (Universal and friends) are pulling their stuff off Netflix. They have the content, and they can squeeze the guys who need the content, or the customer access.
They still have to play ball with Disney, because they can't afford to lose Disney content on their cable platforms, but the can crush Netflix with data caps.
There is no rational reason to say that "Netflix is not worried about network neutrality". Cable operators can build "support", but to be excluded from the data caps, Netflix will have to pay, and therefore raise their prices, at the same time that they lose content which moves to each maker's platform. It's not sustainable, and they can't win.
They can make a lot of compelling original content to try to survive the Disney juggernaut, because cable cutter can pay two or three cheap subscriptions. And they have inertia and name recognition on their side. But Comcast will crush them (in the US) with data caps.
NN isn't a "prog talking point". It's what kept the big guys from controlling your internet.
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by jmorris on Thursday May 23 2019, @08:04PM (2 children)
Nope. I know math isn't your strong suit or you wouldn't be a Prog, but if you are on a place like this you can probably follow along with really basic stuff if I spell it all out and talk really slowly.
If Netflix has to survive on original content alone they are not the "future of TV", they are HBO without the backstop of a back catalog of content from their allied studios. There is only sufficient public attention to sustain a couple of big budget highly viewed and discussed programs at any one time. So assume they execute well and regularly have an A list show like House of Cards, Game of Thrones, etc. That gets them HBO size subscriber numbers. At best.
Or more bluntly, a max US subscriber pool of say 50M. And they won't be paying $15/mo for a cut rate HBO so back to $10. Half a billion a month in revenue is the execute perfectly, everything breaks their way overly optimistic scenario for what they look like in a decade.
Now to the numbers. HBO is part of Warner, which is part of the ATT Juggernaut. The entire thing is valued at around 1/4 T. Netflix closed today at 153B. Or 25 times their best case annual (pre expense, pre tax, talking pure top line gross income) revenue a decade out. At some point they have to admit this to the shareholders, that they have been conned. Do you think that is going to be survivable?
Notice that absolutely none of this has the slightest to do with their delivery side of operations. None.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by bob_super on Thursday May 23 2019, @08:51PM (1 child)
1) Are you aware that you are allowed to make decent points without adding moronic trollish liminary comments ?
2) Are you aware that Netflix, by producing its own content, can actually distribute it to other places, bringing significant income from abroad to keep financing said content, and may therefore be fine in their foreign operations where the competition is less lopsided ? That could have an impact on their market value...
3) Customers will run away to competitors as soon as the delivery quality, or price, changes due to US ISP shenanigans. Netflix can keep being a US content creator, and sell that content to others for distribution, but in the US they are toast. Pure production houses do exist, and Netflix is not in a bad place to survive as a producer of good quality shows. But their US distribution is going to die, because the end of NN means that the price can't match the limited homegrown content.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 23 2019, @09:27PM
You got that backwards. The decent points are there to sucker people into the trolling. Authoritarians like j-mo don't care about the merits, they care about displays of social dominance. If the facts achieve that goal, then they use facts. If lies will work instead, then they use lies. And if neither will work, they just randomly shit on their perceived enemies to puff themselves up like a rooster crowing from atop a pile of dung. By engaging, even with their reasonable-sounding theories, you are giving them the attention that their desicated, self-hating little souls need to feel good. Check out the concept of narcissistic supply [wikipedia.org] - negative supply is just as good for them as positive supply.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 23 2019, @08:42PM (3 children)
That will not be enough. Senate will have to be at least 50(D) with VP as tie breaker. Don't forget how after Obama's election Treason Turtle declared that his only goal was to make Obama a 1 term president - and then set about doing everything he could to make it so. He, more than anone else currently in office, is the author of this country's misfortunes. Also don't foget that 'reasonable' guys like John McCain were promising impeachment proceedings from day 1 if Clinton were elected. The Яepublicans aren't going to suddenly start acting like the loyal opposition once the Mad Potus is out of office.
Basically if we ever want to get back to governing the country rather than oligarchs looting the country, its going to take D majorities in both houses of congress and in the whitehouse.
And even then, that won't be enough, Treason Turtle has been packing the courts with grossly misqualified hyper-partisans. Never before has anyone with an "unqualified" rating from the US ABA (American Bar Association) been appointed to the federal judiciary. Treason Turtle has put six(?) of them on since Twitler took office and most recently he nominated the wife of a russian lobbyist within hours of that lobbyist's client announcing a new aluminum plant to be built in Kentucky with substantial tax dollars.
Our only hope is that these judges have been so badly vetted that investigations will turn up criminal activities in their background that lead to impeachment. Treason Turtle reduced vetting time from 30 hours to 2 hours a couple of months ago in order to speed up the process of ramming them through, so there are probably a lot of skeletons in their closets.
One bright spot - Uncle Clarence Thomas seems to have too much ego to resign any time soon, so if he croaks with a D senate & whitehouse there might a chance to get a judge who doesn't strap on the Fox goggles every night. But if the Mad Potus loses and election (and doesnt tear the country apart trying to hold on) Uncle Tom might decide to retire during the lame duck session.
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Thursday May 23 2019, @08:59PM (2 children)
But we can expect that the patriotic leader of the senate will apply to any lame-duck nominee the same logic that he applied to a last-year-of-term nominee, and refuse to consider a candidate from the outgoing loser president, reserving that nomination to the incoming legitimate president.
It will totally happen.
Right.
Settled.
Totally.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 23 2019, @09:18PM (1 child)
Also we are gonna need leaders who aren't afraid to exercise power. Biden is going around talking like he didn't have a front row seat to 8 years of the GOP's massive opposition to governing, Schumer is an inept puppy and Pelosi has been insanely milquetoast. Even Bernie is too cowardly to endorse ending the filibuster (a senate tradition that is not in the constitution and was created to pacify the white supremacists from the south so they could block all civil rights laws). The D old-guard are acting like the codependent spouse of someone with narcissistic personality disorder - so consumed with managing the feelings of an abusive partner that they can't even think of standing up for themselves.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 23 2019, @10:21PM
Well to be fair that is their actual position. Their JOB is to work with those lizard people to achieve results for the country. After a time I imagine it is exactly like an abusive relationship.
(Score: 1) by easyTree on Thursday May 23 2019, @10:50PM (1 child)
Who wants five or ten streaming services? ProTip: Noone.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday May 24 2019, @04:13AM
I want more than ten streaming services.
Specifically, duplicate pirate streaming services running out of Russia, Ukraine, China, Thailand, etc.