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Submitted via IRC for Bytram
Why brilliant people lose their touch
It hasn't been a great couple of years for Neil Woodford — and it has been just as miserable for the people who have entrusted money to his investment funds. Mr Woodford was probably the most celebrated stockpicker in the UK, but recently his funds have been languishing. Piling on the woes, Morningstar, a rating agency, downgraded his flagship fund this week. What has happened to the darling of the investment community?
Mr Woodford isn't the only star to fade. Fund manager Anthony Bolton is an obvious parallel. He enjoyed almost three decades of superb performance, retired, then returned to blemish his record with a few miserable years investing in China.
The story of triumph followed by disappointment is not limited to investment. Think of Arsène Wenger, for a few years the most brilliant manager in football, and then an eternal runner-up. Or all the bands who have struggled with "difficult second-album syndrome".
There is even a legend that athletes who appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated are doomed to suffer the "SI jinx". The rise to the top is followed by the fall from grace.
There are three broad explanations for these tragic career arcs. Our instinct is to blame the individual. We assume that Mr Woodford lost his touch and that Mr Wenger stopped learning. That is possible. Successful people can become overconfident, or isolated from feedback, or lazy.
But an alternative possibility is that the world changed. Mr Wenger's emphasis on diet, data and the global transfer market was once unusual, but when his rivals noticed and began to follow suit, his edge disappeared. In the investment world — and indeed, the business world more broadly — good ideas don't work forever because the competition catches on.
The third explanation is the least satisfying: that luck was at play. This seems implausible at first glance. Could luck alone have brought Mr Wenger three Premier League titles? Or that Mr Bolton was simply lucky for 28 years? Do we really live in such an impossibly random universe?
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Mer on Sunday June 23 2019, @05:05PM (3 children)
The article's not about brilliant people, it's about successful people (who may or may not be brilliant).
Shut up!, he explained.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by inertnet on Sunday June 23 2019, @10:55PM
Indeed, you can also be successful just by following strict rules, like some people did using the famous Turtle Rules [tradingblox.com]
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Monday June 24 2019, @03:19AM (1 child)
And the simplest proof of that difference, available to most of us, is to have any kind of contact with the upper management of your firm.
It's not even limited to business: When I worked for an academic institution, I had to work directly with one PhD wielding person and couldn't help but conclude that she wasn't particularly smart. To summarize her entire body of work: "If you're doing something, and it hurts, stop doing that, and if you don't recover reasonably quickly go to the doctor."
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday June 24 2019, @03:57AM
Who spends 7 years in effective slavery, unless you have a good chance for an academic position, or you just need to get that degree because you're the last one in your family who doesn't have one yet?