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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday June 25 2019, @09:15AM   Printer-friendly
from the good-news-for-hams? dept.

Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade Favorable for Exploration

The last astronauts of the Apollo program were lucky. Not just because they were chosen to fly to the Moon, but because they missed some really bad weather en route. This wasn't a hurricane or heat wave, but space weather – the term for radiation in the solar system, much of which is released by the Sun. In August 1972, right in between the Apollo 16 and Apollo 17 missions, a solar storm occurred sending out dangerous bursts of radiation. On Earth, we're protected by our magnetic field, but out in space, this would have been hazardous for the astronauts.

The ability to forecast these kinds of events is increasingly important as NASA prepares to send the first woman and the next man to the Moon under the Artemis program. Research now underway may have found a reliable new method to predict this solar activity. The Sun's activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration

Video of presentation: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jP9_4uoEdKg

NASA Predicts Next Solar Cycle will be Lowest in 200 Years (Dalton Minimum Levels) + the Implication

An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. Even NASA appears to be on-board, with their recent SC25 prediction — though, predictably, they stay clear of the implications.

NASA's forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.

The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.

The agency's results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025

[...]

NASA attempts to paint the upcoming solar shutdown as a window of opportunity for space missions, "the improving ability to make such predictions about space weather are good news for mission planners who can schedule human exploration missions during periods of lower radiation."

This is absurd, and serves as yet another example of government agency obfuscation and half-truths.

NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it.

https://electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @02:49PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @02:49PM (#859728)

    The forecast for the last solar max was that it was going to be very intense, but it turned out to be the weakest solar max ever recorded.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @03:14PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @03:14PM (#859737)

    You do not recall correctly about anything in that post.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:16PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:16PM (#859811)

      My memory is intact...
        In 2006 NASA initially expected a solar maximum in 2010 or 2011, and thought that it could be the strongest since 1958. However, the solar maximum was not declared to have occurred until 2014, and even then was ranked among the weakest on record.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_maximum [wikipedia.org]