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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday June 25 2019, @09:15AM   Printer-friendly
from the good-news-for-hams? dept.

Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade Favorable for Exploration

The last astronauts of the Apollo program were lucky. Not just because they were chosen to fly to the Moon, but because they missed some really bad weather en route. This wasn't a hurricane or heat wave, but space weather – the term for radiation in the solar system, much of which is released by the Sun. In August 1972, right in between the Apollo 16 and Apollo 17 missions, a solar storm occurred sending out dangerous bursts of radiation. On Earth, we're protected by our magnetic field, but out in space, this would have been hazardous for the astronauts.

The ability to forecast these kinds of events is increasingly important as NASA prepares to send the first woman and the next man to the Moon under the Artemis program. Research now underway may have found a reliable new method to predict this solar activity. The Sun's activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration

Video of presentation: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jP9_4uoEdKg

NASA Predicts Next Solar Cycle will be Lowest in 200 Years (Dalton Minimum Levels) + the Implication

An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. Even NASA appears to be on-board, with their recent SC25 prediction — though, predictably, they stay clear of the implications.

NASA's forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.

The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.

The agency's results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025

[...]

NASA attempts to paint the upcoming solar shutdown as a window of opportunity for space missions, "the improving ability to make such predictions about space weather are good news for mission planners who can schedule human exploration missions during periods of lower radiation."

This is absurd, and serves as yet another example of government agency obfuscation and half-truths.

NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it.

https://electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/


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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday June 25 2019, @06:32PM (8 children)

    by DeathMonkey (1380) on Tuesday June 25 2019, @06:32PM (#859800) Journal

    Every even six years: Solar minimum coming up, prepare to have climate change disproved.
    Every odd six years: Solar maximum coming up, prepare to have climate change disproved.

    Don't worry deniers, I'm sure THIS TIME a 12-year cycle will totally have an affect on climate change!

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @06:57PM (7 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @06:57PM (#859806)

    The story has always been we are heading for a grand solar minimum (which in the past has been associated with colder climate) in a couple cycles. Every next cycle seems to confirm this trend. You just fail to comprehend the argument or perhaps read something from others who failed to comprehend it.

    The cycles have been getting weaker since cycle 21, the trend not really claimed until cycle 23 was more than half over:
    http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot [www.sidc.be]

    We have little understanding of the sun, so no one knows for sure whats coming. But the smart people will be prepared, the dumb people will be sitting on their asses in the cold waiting for the government to help them (that didnt prepare either since all they ever heard about is warming) if it happens. Good luck.

    • (Score: 3, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:08PM (6 children)

      by DeathMonkey (1380) on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:08PM (#859810) Journal

      So the cycles have have been getting weaker since 1980.

      Meanwhile, global average temperatures have been increasing over that same timeframe. (And, the rate of the increase has been increasing.)

      And you think this supports your hypothesis?

      • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:19PM (4 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:19PM (#859812)

        It isn't a linear relationship of weak cycle -> lower temp. The grand minimum is it's own phenomenon that is associated with weak solar cycles, no one knows the underlying reasons or what else that state of the sun is associated with. Please, do a tiny bit of research into it before commenting further.

        Btw, when/if the grand minimum happens get ready for many tears of republican rule. No democrat has ever been electing during a cooling trend since records began: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/tempByPres.png [columbia.edu]

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:46PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:46PM (#859824)

          Always the same here. A certain type of person wants to downvote reality. Good luck.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:57PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @07:57PM (#859831)

          Actually I think it is more likely the DNC just disappears. Half will split off into a socialist party and the corporatist wing merges with the RHINOs.

          • (Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday June 25 2019, @11:51PM (1 child)

            by PartTimeZombie (4827) on Tuesday June 25 2019, @11:51PM (#859922)

            Why would the people who run your country allow either of their political parties to change?

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 26 2019, @12:40AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 26 2019, @12:40AM (#859941)

              Because the DNC mission is complete once the cooling trend sets in.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @09:25PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 25 2019, @09:25PM (#859859)

        Meanwhile, global average temperatures have been increasing over that same timeframe. (And, the rate of the increase has been increasing.

        If you pay attention, what you find is that the past keeps getting colder at an increasing rate. A few more years of adjusting the past and 100 years ago you will have been able to go ice skating on the Nile.