Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

SoylentNews is people

posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday July 09 2019, @07:55AM   Printer-friendly
from the electrifying-news dept.

Speculating about the next years, Fred Lambert writes that once there are good all-electric options across the car market internal combustion engines will be as good as dead.

Before 2025, there's going to be a point where there's not going to be a single car buyer in their right mind who's going to want to buy a new gasoline car. Not a single one. Because they're going to look at the market, they're going to look at what's out there, and all the different electric car models that are out there now. By that point, by 2025, there's going to be dozens and dozens of more EV models than what's available today. And attractive ones!

It's going to be hard for someone to justify buying a gas-powered car at that point, because they're going to think about the resale value of it.

I think the resale value of gasoline cars is going to drop massively in the next five years, and predicted value is going to drop even more drastically. Buying a gasoline car right now is a bad choice. Buying a gasoline car within the next five years is going to be just a financial suicide for most people.

Earlier on SN:
Every Electric Vehicle on Sale in the US for 2019 and Its Range (2019)
Australian Plan to Ban Petrol and Diesel Cars (2019)
Have We Reached Peak Car? (2018)


Original Submission

 
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.
Display Options Threshold/Breakthrough Mark All as Read Mark All as Unread
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by aim on Tuesday July 09 2019, @09:20AM (10 children)

    by aim (6322) on Tuesday July 09 2019, @09:20AM (#864912)

    Why am I sceptical:
    - price of the car: current (B)EV models are expensive compared to their ICE versions. This is especially true for smaller vehicles. Most of that is the battery. A subscription for the battery may be available for some models (for instance, Renault), but whether it's interesting depends on how long you want to use the car (limited time vs. until it falls apart). Even if you count in the supposed reduced maintenance of EVs, currently the EVs higher buying price makes ICEs still more economically sound (until gas prices or taxes on ICEs get a massive hike).
    - types of cars: for some reason, most EV models pushing onto the market are SUVs. Not everyone wants one of those monsters, they make no sense at all if electrified. Even the rather large Tesla X is more of a van than a SUV. Aerodynamics, weight especially count on an electric vehicle.
    - charging stations: there are a lot of troubles with charging stations, at least the non-Tesla ones. It should be possible to drive up to one, and just pay by credit/debit card or cash (same as with a petrol station), rather than having to fiddle with some app, some subscription or whatever. It's too complicated!

    Let's not forget the possible alternatives: hybrids for one, especially plug-in hybrids, have quite a good efficiency right now. Also, hydrogen (via fuel cells) might some day become interesting, depending on production (the how and where) and distribution of hydrogen.

    Starting Score:    1  point
    Moderation   +2  
       Interesting=2, Total=2
    Extra 'Interesting' Modifier   0  
    Karma-Bonus Modifier   +1  

    Total Score:   4  
  • (Score: 0, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @10:28AM (9 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @10:28AM (#864927)

    most EV models pushing onto the market are SUVs. Not everyone wants one of those monsters, they make no sense at all if electrified

    SUV's make no sense no matter their propulsion unit. They are simply a small phallic size compensation device, nothing more.

    • (Score: 3, Disagree) by Acabatag on Tuesday July 09 2019, @11:13AM (6 children)

      by Acabatag (2885) on Tuesday July 09 2019, @11:13AM (#864934)

      SUVs are 'safer' mini-vans. Single people and childless couples can not imagine the need for that capacity in a vehicle. Families cannot do without one. Either an SUV or a mini-van.

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by aim on Tuesday July 09 2019, @11:47AM (4 children)

        by aim (6322) on Tuesday July 09 2019, @11:47AM (#864941)

        SUVs are 'safer' mini-vans.

        They may have that perception with the public, but that's all there is to it. Station wagons, vans etc. of the same generation have equivalent safety ratings. Having a higher weight, chances are that SUVs are actually less safe.

        Also, the perception of higher safety may lead to less safe driving pratices, leading to more accidents.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:09PM (3 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:09PM (#865028)

          Yes, and unless your family has more than about 5 people in it or more than 3 children, you probably don't need the extra seating capacity. Car rentals have become very affordable for the few times a year where you might need something larger. If you need it more than a few times a year, then it might make sense to buy something larger.

          As far as safety goes, with all the sensors that are becoming standard on modern cars, the likelihood of needing that big crash cage is going to continue to decline. A crash cage is nothing but dead weight unless you crash. My parents' next car is likely going to be a Suburu that's capable of keeping itself within the lines on the freeway. And automatically brake if something appears in front of them unexpectedly. It's only a matter of time before even cheap cars can do that and more.

          • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:56PM (2 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:56PM (#865050)

            I keep seeing people say this nonsense about a 5 seat sedan being fine for people with 3 kids.

            Unless your sedan is the size of a yacht, this is BS, and I can prove it. There's one important reason: child seat laws.

            Have you taken a good, hard look at child seats? I've spent some quality time packing them into various vehicles, to see how many I could fit. I could only fit three abreast in the largest SUVs and truck back seats, and even then it was a tight squeeze. In a compact "family sedan", just forget it. Whichever front seat they're behind becomes useless for anyone except midgets, so the best use case in those is one, in the middle of the back seat, for a single-child family. In a really large sedan, you can kind of squeeze one in behind the front seats (hope dad isn't 6 feet+), and make it work for a family with two kids. Want to fit in more? You'd better have a big van or SUV with third row seating. One of the best: Dodge Grand Caravan, circa 2000.

            There are people with more kids than that, or serious luggage needs. I've dealt with some of them, and many of them have gone all the way to commercial-type passenger vans.

            But I'm sure your bubble's a great place to live.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @05:08PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @05:08PM (#865053)

              There are people with more kids than that,

              Obviously, they should sell some of their kids, so that their quiver is small enough to fit in a normal vehicle.

            • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @07:25PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @07:25PM (#865113)

              Not to mention all the other stuff that goes along with kids. Friends will come over, Grandma will come ov, school projects need to be transported, musical instruments and athletic gear need to be transported. Appliances need to be transported, furniture needs to be transported.

              Raising a family is like running a logistics company. Skimpy vehicles don't get it done. Busy parents don't have time to screw around with car rentals every week, and doing so eats up any savings from a smaller car very quickly.

              A five-seat passenger car is adequate (notsspacious, just adequate) for one child (if you have a friend with a truck). Everyone else needs a van or SUV. A two parent household where you have one multipurpose kid vehicle and one electric commuter car for one parent to go to work in is fine. But that's still one big vehicle per family.

      • (Score: 3, Informative) by Spamalope on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:55PM

        by Spamalope (5233) on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:55PM (#865049) Homepage

        The Cafe laws imposed impossible gas mileage requirements, but included an exemption for 'trucks'.
        This effectively outlawed station wagons, but if you can make your station wagon look enough like a truck it counts.
        This pretty much explains the current market. If it's capacity would make it's gas mileage too poor to be legal under Cafe, it must be 'truckish' shaped to be legal.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 09 2019, @05:50PM

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 09 2019, @05:50PM (#865077) Journal

      SUV's make no sense no matter their propulsion unit. They are simply a small phallic size compensation device, nothing more.

      Apparently, as "small phallic size compensation devices" they must make a lot of sense, else people wouldn't be buying them for that alleged purpose.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @06:57PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @06:57PM (#865102)

      srsly? if you can use re-gen, then your SUV can be the size of a aircraft carrier. even if you just drive down the road to get a quark of milk.
      since all (okay, sorry: most) of the energy is re-couped to recharge the battery or crapacitor, when you stop your aircraft carrier sized tank of a suv at the milk dispensing store, you have moved ALOT of weight PUTgot all (sorry: most) of it back, so .. in this case size doesn't matter.
      what however is super super important: aerodynamics. we like to travel fast and wind resistance increases by more then square with speed.
      so the air-craft carrier sized suv should take a cue from ... well ... uhm ... that bird that falls from the sky faster then anything else that drops and hits a rabbit or trout?
      so suv's should not look like aircraft carriers or tanks for that matter ^_^