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Speculating about the next years, Fred Lambert writes that once there are good all-electric options across the car market internal combustion engines will be as good as dead.
Before 2025, there's going to be a point where there's not going to be a single car buyer in their right mind who's going to want to buy a new gasoline car. Not a single one. Because they're going to look at the market, they're going to look at what's out there, and all the different electric car models that are out there now. By that point, by 2025, there's going to be dozens and dozens of more EV models than what's available today. And attractive ones!
It's going to be hard for someone to justify buying a gas-powered car at that point, because they're going to think about the resale value of it.
I think the resale value of gasoline cars is going to drop massively in the next five years, and predicted value is going to drop even more drastically. Buying a gasoline car right now is a bad choice. Buying a gasoline car within the next five years is going to be just a financial suicide for most people.
Earlier on SN:
Every Electric Vehicle on Sale in the US for 2019 and Its Range (2019)
Australian Plan to Ban Petrol and Diesel Cars (2019)
Have We Reached Peak Car? (2018)
(Score: 5, Interesting) by Bot on Tuesday July 09 2019, @09:35AM (6 children)
The car market has been drugged since big auto actively dismantled public transport systems (streetcars conspiracy and mere observation)
Tons of patents for more efficiency ignored or buried.
The ECAT cold fusion machine ignored (which is most telling. No matter if fraud or not, if humanity were hungry for energy instead of control the ECat would have been either adopted or debunked in a matter of weeks)
Now the push is towards electric vehicles. Fine. What does it mean, translated to the control hungry elite plans? Cars that are:
impossible to buy without financing, goodbye private property
impossible to drive without assistance, goodbye privacy
impossible to repair (the need for range will dictate deep integration of parts)
while old cars will be phased out by laws.
The auto industry is not made by auto enthusiasts so will not give a damn. In fact by engineering more and more regulations they dug their own grave. Knowingly.
Given that the same system that brought us the industrial revolution is leading the environmental revolution I also expect all advantages of electric vehicles, excluding local emissions where they are unbeatable, to evaporate with time.
Account abandoned.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @09:43AM (3 children)
> while old cars will be phased out by laws.
Please elaborate, I don't see any serious movement in this direction at all.
The closest we've had to this in the USA was "cash for clunkers" and that was a purely voluntary operation.
(Score: 4, Informative) by jbruchon on Tuesday July 09 2019, @12:22PM (2 children)
Not to mention "Cash for Clunkers" was a massive failure. It failed to meet its goals, yet decimated the used car and car parts markets due to the mandatory destruction of the engines with silicate. Lower income brackets are the ones that rely the most on the used car market, so the destruction tens of thousands of perfectly good used vehicles meant poor people who are already in a financially difficult situation and probably driving a poorly-maintained car suddenly couldn't afford to get a replacement car if theirs failed beyond repair. Oh, about that "beyond repair" bit: the silicate destroyed most major components including the engines, so economical used repair part pulls like pulling an entire powertrain at a junkyard for $700 and swapping it into the poor person's broken car wasn't an option anymore either. The worst part is that it ultimately hurt the new car business that it was supposed to prop up because people who were already going to buy a new car just bought new cars earlier and had their working old cars destroyed for the credit, but then sales plummeted since they'd robbed Peter to pay Paul on that one.
I'm just here to listen to the latest song about butts.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:37PM (1 child)
Ah, but it did in fact meet its goals. Why? Because "cash for clunkers" true goal was exactly the "[decimation of] the used car and car parts markets".
Used cars put a drag on new car sales, and the automakers only make money on new car sales. So decimating the used car market (which was "cash for clunkers" true goal) was supposed to prop up the new car market.
The fact that the new car market didn't get propped up as expected by the politicians simply means that the politicians that dreamed it up miss-understood why the used car buyers were buying used instead of new. The politicians where thinking "if there are no used, they will buy new" while the buyers thought "if there are no used, I won't buy anything".
(Score: 2, Touché) by khallow on Tuesday July 09 2019, @05:53PM
So didn't meet goals.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Immerman on Tuesday July 09 2019, @01:26PM
I wanted to believe in the ECAT too, but it *was* debunked almost immediately, to the extent that the inventor would allow it. Numerous researchers proposed simple demonstrations that would conclusively prove prove its legitimacy, rather than Rossi's own deeply flawed demonstrations. All were refused. What more do you want? You can't conclusively prove or debunk the thing without the inventor's cooperation, which he steadfastly refused to provide. That's really all the evidence you need as to his own belief in its viability.
The fact that he continued to draw in investors is proof enough of the hunger for a better power source.
As for EVs being impossible to buy without financing, how is that any different than an ICEV? Only the relatively wealthy can afford to buy a new car with cash, and most of those cars are targetted at a much poorer market segment.
(Score: 2) by TheRaven on Tuesday July 09 2019, @07:28PM
ECAT got a lot of press, it wasn't ignored. Then it turned out that the 'inventor' had a history of fraud. Then a load of people proposed simple tests that he refused to allow. Then everyone moved on, because it was an obvious scam.
There are a few plausible commercial fusion projects underway at the moment (I like the Lockheed Martin one), but ECAT is not one of them.
sudo mod me up