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Speculating about the next years, Fred Lambert writes that once there are good all-electric options across the car market internal combustion engines will be as good as dead.
Before 2025, there's going to be a point where there's not going to be a single car buyer in their right mind who's going to want to buy a new gasoline car. Not a single one. Because they're going to look at the market, they're going to look at what's out there, and all the different electric car models that are out there now. By that point, by 2025, there's going to be dozens and dozens of more EV models than what's available today. And attractive ones!
It's going to be hard for someone to justify buying a gas-powered car at that point, because they're going to think about the resale value of it.
I think the resale value of gasoline cars is going to drop massively in the next five years, and predicted value is going to drop even more drastically. Buying a gasoline car right now is a bad choice. Buying a gasoline car within the next five years is going to be just a financial suicide for most people.
Earlier on SN:
Every Electric Vehicle on Sale in the US for 2019 and Its Range (2019)
Australian Plan to Ban Petrol and Diesel Cars (2019)
Have We Reached Peak Car? (2018)
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Tuesday July 09 2019, @12:58PM (13 children)
Indeed. And electrical also has other advantages: it's very compact, and has a relatively flat power curve, unlike ICEs which mostly have an extremely narrow power band necessitating a relatively complicated and inefficient transmission. In other words, electric is perfect for delivering motive power to the wheels/propellers/etc.
Electric is also power agnostic - it doesn't care whether the electricity comes from batteries, supercapacitors, flywheels, or ICE generators (or external combustion for that matter - steam and stirling engines both have much to recommend them if you can buffer the output power). That last one opens a lot of doors - something like the Tesla only consumes 10-15kW (13-20hp) cruising down the highway, which means you could install a 30hp ICE generator, tuned to operate at a single maximally clean and efficient speed and load, and recharge your batteries while you drive. Leave out the batteries entirely and you'd have an electric transmission as is used by most modern train engines, or include batteries for only a modest 30mile range and be able to handle 90% of typical daily usage as a plug-in electric, while being able to use much more energy-dense fuels for longer range journeys.
I have high hopes for the Liquid Piston engine being developed for the defense department - they're the ones targetting a 30kW flex-fuel generator that fits in a 12" cube, while being more efficient than grid power. But there are other more mature options as well.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @03:59PM (7 children)
To pull just one quote from your post,
> ... a 30hp ICE generator, tuned to operate at a single maximally clean and efficient speed and load, ... Leave out the batteries entirely and you'd have an electric transmission as is used by most modern train engines, ...
This works for trains because the tracks have limited grade (and when the grades are steeper in the mountains, they put on extra engines). Won't work for cars unless you only operate in a very flat area...and don't expect to accelerate away from stop lights very quickly.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:44PM (5 children)
Won't generate the same performance we've come to expect from ICE cars, you mean. You could still get up steep grades, it'd just be really slow.
(Score: 2) by Osamabobama on Tuesday July 09 2019, @06:53PM (3 children)
You have identified the precise reason that it won't work for cars.
Appended to the end of comments you post. Max: 120 chars.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 10 2019, @03:17AM (2 children)
Except that it does work, just not as well. And someone has already noted that you could just put in a beefier engine and get better performance.
(Score: 2) by Osamabobama on Wednesday July 10 2019, @07:30PM (1 child)
I suppose my American bias is showing, but slow cars don't meet the expectations of a large portion of car buyers. That could be solved by marketing, I guess, or by much higher fuel prices, but the performance requirements would have to change.
Appended to the end of comments you post. Max: 120 chars.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday July 11 2019, @11:48PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @11:50PM
Yup, may I suggest a cow as the mascot animal.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Tuesday July 09 2019, @07:35PM
Agreed. If you use it as a transmission the generator needs to be able to instantaneously deliver as much power as is currently needed. Throw in even a small (battery?) buffer though and that dependence goes away.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:00PM (3 children)
The future is almost certainly going to be hydrogen fuel cell powered electric cars or equivalent. We don't have enough raw materials to build the necessary batteries for all the vehicles we need. In the future, batteries are likely to be limited to warehouses and places where you don't need to go very far and can easily charge the batteries.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by khallow on Tuesday July 09 2019, @05:28PM (2 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @08:25PM (1 child)
Sadly using the stored energy has a host of nasty side effects, specifically pollution and excess heat.
Ah well, the sooner your oil fields lose relevance the better.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 10 2019, @03:28AM
So does electricity production. Which nasty side effects you get will depend on the mix of power generation.
There's always biofuels to keep the more than a trillion dollars in infrastructure viable. Keep in mind the value of the transportation is much more than the energy cost of the fuel used.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @06:27PM
was think about that: "external ICE" to make electricity the most efficient way a ICE can.
the battery is most important. as it is with ANY ICE-only vehicule, all energy is always LOST TOTALLY when you step on the break.
it feels like people designing roads with stop lights are in bed with the oil industry, where the road builders get "incentives" to add red-light-signals (at the meetings at 5 star hotel resorts they collectively chant "WASTE! WASTE! WASTE!).
anyways, if one can figure out a "reasonable" top-cruise (*urgs*) speed, add a bit of natural wind to the headwind xor a uphill slop and then figure out the kwh requirements of the electrical-engine in that situation, then a electricity-only-producing ICE *should* work for all circumstances (in 98% of cases)?
add two batteries, one powering or being recharged by the electrical motor connected to wheel(s) and the second one being most efficiently recharged by the ICE and then switch over as required. for example.
ofc stoping at a electrical recharge station (your solar powered house) will recharge both batteries.
and so, like nissan saw correctly, when a disaster happens, connect the car to the house (which also should ha-ha-have solar panels) and with enough gasoline storage (if the solar isn't enough), one could continue to enjoy frozen, well-kept and unspoiled food from the re-fridge ... and maybe have some light at night while the disaster is remedied by the democratically voted central cluberment ...
bottom line, batteries are great. putting the trust of whole humankind ONLY into batteries is probably a mistake, since most all people cannot make their own batteries.
i suspect that compressors, ICEs, pipes etc etc infrastructure might be easier to rebuild from a global disaster and that the mechanical machinery to make flammable liquids and gases (with external energy input) is less technologically difficult then "membranes" and "nano-stuff" and other stuff?
lastly, who knows what more can happen if mechanical machinery (like a ICE) has a baby with capacitors, coils and all kinds of multi-phase electricity?