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Speculating about the next years, Fred Lambert writes that once there are good all-electric options across the car market internal combustion engines will be as good as dead.
Before 2025, there's going to be a point where there's not going to be a single car buyer in their right mind who's going to want to buy a new gasoline car. Not a single one. Because they're going to look at the market, they're going to look at what's out there, and all the different electric car models that are out there now. By that point, by 2025, there's going to be dozens and dozens of more EV models than what's available today. And attractive ones!
It's going to be hard for someone to justify buying a gas-powered car at that point, because they're going to think about the resale value of it.
I think the resale value of gasoline cars is going to drop massively in the next five years, and predicted value is going to drop even more drastically. Buying a gasoline car right now is a bad choice. Buying a gasoline car within the next five years is going to be just a financial suicide for most people.
Earlier on SN:
Every Electric Vehicle on Sale in the US for 2019 and Its Range (2019)
Australian Plan to Ban Petrol and Diesel Cars (2019)
Have We Reached Peak Car? (2018)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @03:59PM (7 children)
To pull just one quote from your post,
> ... a 30hp ICE generator, tuned to operate at a single maximally clean and efficient speed and load, ... Leave out the batteries entirely and you'd have an electric transmission as is used by most modern train engines, ...
This works for trains because the tracks have limited grade (and when the grades are steeper in the mountains, they put on extra engines). Won't work for cars unless you only operate in a very flat area...and don't expect to accelerate away from stop lights very quickly.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 09 2019, @04:44PM (5 children)
Won't generate the same performance we've come to expect from ICE cars, you mean. You could still get up steep grades, it'd just be really slow.
(Score: 2) by Osamabobama on Tuesday July 09 2019, @06:53PM (3 children)
You have identified the precise reason that it won't work for cars.
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(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 10 2019, @03:17AM (2 children)
Except that it does work, just not as well. And someone has already noted that you could just put in a beefier engine and get better performance.
(Score: 2) by Osamabobama on Wednesday July 10 2019, @07:30PM (1 child)
I suppose my American bias is showing, but slow cars don't meet the expectations of a large portion of car buyers. That could be solved by marketing, I guess, or by much higher fuel prices, but the performance requirements would have to change.
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(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday July 11 2019, @11:48PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 09 2019, @11:50PM
Yup, may I suggest a cow as the mascot animal.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Tuesday July 09 2019, @07:35PM
Agreed. If you use it as a transmission the generator needs to be able to instantaneously deliver as much power as is currently needed. Throw in even a small (battery?) buffer though and that dependence goes away.