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A "Brutal" Wake-Up Call Is Coming for Automakers in 2025

posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday July 09 2019, @07:55AM   
from the electrifying-news dept.

canopic jug writes:

Speculating about the next years, Fred Lambert writes that once there are good all-electric options across the car market internal combustion engines will be as good as dead.

Before 2025, there's going to be a point where there's not going to be a single car buyer in their right mind who's going to want to buy a new gasoline car. Not a single one. Because they're going to look at the market, they're going to look at what's out there, and all the different electric car models that are out there now. By that point, by 2025, there's going to be dozens and dozens of more EV models than what's available today. And attractive ones!

It's going to be hard for someone to justify buying a gas-powered car at that point, because they're going to think about the resale value of it.

I think the resale value of gasoline cars is going to drop massively in the next five years, and predicted value is going to drop even more drastically. Buying a gasoline car right now is a bad choice. Buying a gasoline car within the next five years is going to be just a financial suicide for most people.

Earlier on SN:
Every Electric Vehicle on Sale in the US for 2019 and Its Range (2019)
Australian Plan to Ban Petrol and Diesel Cars (2019)
Have We Reached Peak Car? (2018)

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Original Submission

• Re:Not enough electricity production (Score: 4, Informative) by deimtee on Tuesday July 09 2019, @05:07PM

  by deimtee (3272) on Tuesday July 09 2019, @05:07PM (#865052) Journal

  I was curious, so using DDG-fu and some basic maths I got some BOTEC numbers:

  USA daily electric energy generation = Just under 40 Pj (Peta Joules) per day
  USA daily gasoline consumption - 390000000 gallons x (various conversion factors) = 50Pj/day.
  That 50Pj is the total energy content, an ICE usefully uses about 40%. so E-equiv = 20Pj/day

  So quick estimate is that you would need to generate and transmit about 50% more energy than the current total. I guess the total impact of that will be altered a lot by when people charge their cars. If you can get a significant percentage to charge off-peak (or smart-charge when supply exceeds demand) it might mitigate it.
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  Just realised I didn't include diesel or LPG in that. Gasoline only. Not going to redo the numbers, but it does make it worse. Also doesn't count gasoline used in things other than vehicles but I bet that's a rounding error anyway.

  --
  If you cough while drinking cheap red wine it really cleans out your sinuses.

  Parent

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