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posted by martyb on Tuesday July 23 2019, @03:13AM   Printer-friendly
from the people-in-glass-houses-should-not-throw-stones dept.

Cyber threats from the US and Russia are now focusing on civilian infrastructure – TechCrunch

Cyber-confrontation between the U.S. and Russia is increasingly turning to critical civilian infrastructure, particularly power grids, judging from recent press reports. The typically furtive conflict went public last month, when The New York Times reported U.S. Cyber Command's shift to a more offensive and aggressive approach in targeting Russia's electric power grid.

The report drew skepticism from some experts and a denial from the administration, but the revelation led Moscow to warn that such activity presented a "direct challenge" that demanded a response.  WIRED magazine the same day published an article detailing growing cyber-reconnaissance on U.S. grids by sophisticated malware emanating from a Russian research institution, the same malware that abruptly halted operations at a Saudi Arabian oil refinery in 2017 during what WIRED called "one of the most reckless cyberattacks in history."

Although both sides have been targeting each other's infrastructure since at least 2012, according to the Times article, the aggression and scope of these operations now seems unprecedented.

[...] Washington and Moscow share several similarities related to cyber-deterrence. Both, for instance, view the other as a highly capable adversary. U.S. officials fret about Moscow's ability to wield its authoritarian power to corral Russian academia, the private sector, and criminal networks to boost its cyber-capacity while insulating state-backed hackers from direct attribution.

Moscow sees an unwavering cyber-omnipotence in the U.S., capable of crafting uniquely sophisticated malware like the 'Stuxnet' virus, all while using digital operations to orchestrate regional upheaval, such as the Arab Spring in 2011. At least some officials on both sides, apparently, view civilian infrastructure as an appropriate and perhaps necessary lever to deter the other.

Whatever their similarities in cyber-targeting, Moscow and Washington faced different paths in developing capabilities and policies for cyberwarfare, due in large part to the two sides' vastly different interpretations of global events and the amount of resources at their disposal.

A gulf in both the will to use cyber-operations and the capacity to launch them separated the two for almost 20 years. While the U.S. military built up the latter, the issue of when and where the U.S. should use cyber-operations failed to keep pace with new capabilities. Inversely, Russia's capacity, particularly within its military, was outpaced by its will to use cyber-operations against perceived adversaries.

[...] By no means should the Kremlin's activity go unanswered. But a leap from disabling internet access for Russia's 'Troll Farm' to threatening to blackout swaths of Russia could jeopardize the few fragile norms existing in this bilateral cyber-competition, perhaps leading to expanded targeting of nuclear facilities.

The U.S. is arriving late to a showdown that many officials in Russian defense circles saw coming a long time ago, when U.S. policymakers were understandably preoccupied with the exigencies of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency.

Washington could follow Moscow's lead in realizing that this is a long-term struggle that requires innovative and thoughtful solutions as opposed to reflexive ones. Increasing the diplomatic costs of Russian cyber-aggression, shoring-up cyber-defenses, or even fostering military-to-military or working-level diplomatic channels to discuss cyber redlines, however discretely and unofficially, could present better choices than apparently gambling with the safety of civilians that both sides' forces are sworn to protect.


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  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 23 2019, @01:45PM

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 23 2019, @01:45PM (#870320) Journal
    Counter examples include subjugation of the Eastern Bloc after 1945 (and putting down later revolts in the 1950s and 1960s), and invasions of South Korea in 1950, Afghanistan in 1981, and of course, the previously mentioned Crimea in 2014.