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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday July 23 2019, @02:16PM   Printer-friendly
from the heating-things-up dept.

Submitted via IRC for Bytram

New research identifies deadly hidden weather hazard that has the potential to affect millions of people

New research, led by Loughborough University academics, has found that tropical cyclones followed by deadly heat is an emerging weather threat that could put millions of people at risk as global temperatures continue to rise.

Climate scientist Dr. Tom Matthews and Professor Rob Wilby hope their findings will act as a 'stark warning' and raise awareness of the previously hidden hazard so measures can be put in place to protect vulnerable communities.

Until now, little was known about the possibility of deadly heatwaves—which have temperatures that feel like 40.6°C and above—following major tropical cyclones (rapidly rotating, very intense storm systems that form over tropical oceans and have winds of hurricane force).

Dr. Matthews and Professor Wilby, in collaboration with Dr. Conor Murphy, of Maynooth University, examined the tropical cyclone-deadly heat connection as it has serious potential consequences.

[...] Dr. Matthews, Professor Wilby and Dr. Murphy worked together to assess how likely tropical cyclone-heat events are and were in the recent climate and how this likelihood may change as the earth continues to warm.

They used computer models to generate future possible climates and predict extreme weather events occurring in worlds 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C warmer than pre-industrial times (a time period used as a baseline as it is before fossil fuels were burnt on a large scale, seriously altering the climate).

They also used observational records from 1979-2017 to see how hot and humid temperatures have been in the wake of previous major landfalling tropical cyclones.

The team found that the tropical cyclone-heat hazard is already possible along some of the world's most densely populated coastlines in our current climate, but only an estimated 1,000 people have been affected over the last 30 years and mainly in remote northwest Australia.

However, their results revealed that the probability of the tropical cyclone-heat hazard will increase rapidly as the climate warms.

[...] The team's results have been published today (Monday 22 July) in Nature Climate Change, a well-respected monthly peer-reviewed scientific journal, in a paper titled 'An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard'.

Dr Matthews commented: "Our results present a simple but stark warning: with no change in tropical cyclones but plausible rises in global temperatures, potentially deadly heatwaves are more likely to follow tropical cyclones and eventually strike vulnerable populations.

"Although a tropical cyclone–heat event has not yet impacted a heavily populated coastline, the likelihood is growing, and it is down to luck that more people haven't been affected so far.

"The absence of experience in dealing with such a compound hazard places those exposed communities at even greater risk.

"By drawing attention to this emergent hazard, we trust that our study will stimulate further research and adaptation planning to protect those at growing risk from a tropical cyclone–heat compound event."


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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by looorg on Tuesday July 23 2019, @02:59PM (3 children)

    by looorg (578) on Tuesday July 23 2019, @02:59PM (#870341)

    Until now, little was known about the possibility of deadly heatwaves—which have temperatures that feel like 40.6°C and above—following major tropical cyclones

    So high humidity makes heat feel a lot worse? I'm fairly sure we all knew that already. You could literally have asked anyone that lives in a high humidity area and they would have told them that. No predictive models needed.

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  • (Score: 4, Informative) by AthanasiusKircher on Tuesday July 23 2019, @03:38PM (2 children)

    by AthanasiusKircher (5291) on Tuesday July 23 2019, @03:38PM (#870354) Journal

    Yes, because every study and every researcher is obviously a moron.

    Or actually, NO -- this predictive model has nothing to do with the fact that humid air can feel hotter. It has to do with predicting a higher likelihood of heat waves following hurricanes/cyclones, as clearly described in the summary.

    The reason why this is concerning is probably obvious, but it's spelled out further in TFA if you need it -- major storms lead to widespread power outages, as well destroying shelters, etc. People who are dependent on air conditioning and shelter from the heat are then at a higher risk of heat-related illnesses or death (particularly the elderly, etc.).

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 23 2019, @10:50PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 23 2019, @10:50PM (#870510)

      People who are "dependent on air conditioning", i.e. affluent enough to pay for the device, its installation, and electricity, by some weird coincidence also tend to reside in buildings robust enough to not be blown nor washed away, with equally robust electricity hookups.

      One can imagine a power station itself blown/washed away by a storm, but the dangerous phenomenon causing such is called "corruption", not weather.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 24 2019, @01:00PM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday July 24 2019, @01:00PM (#870627) Journal

        by some weird coincidence also tend to reside in buildings robust enough to not be blown nor washed away,

        Except, of course, when "robustness" isn't enough. Then those buildings get blown or washed away too.

        with equally robust electricity hookups

        Which isn't going to matter when the grid is down and fuel for the generator is hard to come by.

        The usual affluent world solution to cyclones is to not be there, not to tough it out in "robust" buildings with unreliable electricity hook ups.