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A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:
Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.
Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.
Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.
[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.
"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."
The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:
1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite
Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @07:53PM (7 children)
Gosh you trumptards are so screwed up in the head it's unbelievable...
Fearmongering ? What about "liberals are going to take away your guns !" fearmongering ? What about "caravan of immigrant invaders at the southern border !" fearmongering ?
And whatever democrats say is lies, but whatever spews out of the filthy mouth of your beloved compulsive-liar in chief is gospel ?
You conservatards are so blindly, uterly, completely consumed by your hatred of liberals that, just like captain Ahab, you delibarately chose a known mentaly unstable psychopath, narcissist, con-man, compulsive-liar, sexual predator and child molester with more than 1300 civil lawsuits against him who's destroyed countless small businesses and ruined countless lives, risking not only your economy, but your entire country, your future, your children's future, the entire planet, everything, just for the chance of sticking it to that damned liberal white whale.
And before you pathetic retards bring up Clinton again (because you whataboutist morons always do), know that:
When the truth about Clinton's true nature came out after he was elected, people quickly moved to impeach him, which is what any decent human being would do;
But the truth about Trump's true nature was known before the election, and you disgusting lot still chose to knowingly vote for him, first in the primaries, then again for the presidency.
Would you be so forgiving if it had been your own daughter that Trump pissed-on during one of his good friend Epstein's golden shower parties on his boat with all his billionnaire friends ? I'm now convinced that you would, because nothing Trump could say or do would stop you from trying to polish that turd again, and again, and again, and that when Trump declared "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, and I still wouldn't lose any voters", he was absolutely right, for one of the few times in his miserable, wortless life.
(Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @09:20PM (1 child)
It isn't fearmongering if it is true. That one dude even said he wanted to nuke everyone who wouldnt turn in their guns. These people are either mentally ill or caught on camera at Epstein Island or Bohemian Grove feeding on children and wearing their skin in creepy ceremonies.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:50PM
Strange that a factually correct statement is labeled as "troll": https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/eric-swalwell-gun-owners-nukes/ [snopes.com]
(note, snopes confirms Swalwell said it, and pics of the tweet prove it to be true, but for some reason gives it a "mixture" rating because Swalwell was joking -- which is weird, it may have been a joke, but he said it, or is "I was only joking" going to get to apply to everyone now? Nobody in their right mind would think it was serious as nobody thinks the US would exceed the use of conventional weapons in a war against US citizens on US soil, but he still fucking said it. It's a "true".)
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday July 29 2019, @09:55PM (2 children)
...gawwwwd-DAMN. Well-put. Wish I could mod you up more than once.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:09PM (1 child)
That AC tried to link Trump to Epstein, you all live in a different reality.
1) Trump banned Epstein from his clubs for hitting on underage women
2) Trump is the one who brought Epstein back into the public discussions in 2016
3) the prosecutor in the last Epstein case said Trump was the only one who cooperated
I'm not saying this to convince you, just to leave a record of how delusional you are to think this Epstein case will turn out bad for Trump.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:26PM
And who can forget Trump's very first executive order was to give the government the power to confiscate the wealth of people involved with Epstein: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-blocking-property-persons-involved-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/ [whitehouse.gov]
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Monday July 29 2019, @11:36PM (1 child)
There are numerous congress critters who are on record, promising to revoke the second amendment. There are lobbyists in Washington working tirelessly to get it done. There are cities in America that have revoked the second within their own jurisdictions. There are states that work just as tirelessly toward the same end - Maryland leading the charge. There is no fearmongering among the second amendment supporters, the left has established their ultimate goal quite clearly.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:13AM
Some examples:
Feinstein: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffI-tWh37UY [youtube.com]
Swalwell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a76JMYH6KvQ [youtube.com]
("buy back", as if the government is the progenitor of all property -- that's new speak for "confiscation")
Jack booted smug ass thugette: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts08U2673EI [youtube.com]
Anyway, the only reason people think guns are the problem, is because of how remarkably well they have reduced violence by making it cost prohibitive for the young, strong, and large, to target everyone else, and they have done this for so ling, that people have forgotten what happens when bullies have a free pass. https://billlawrenceonline.com/carlisle-moody-handguns-stop-murders/ [billlawrenceonline.com]