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posted by Fnord666 on Monday July 29 2019, @06:31PM   Printer-friendly
from the what's-in-your-wallet? dept.

A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:

Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.

Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.

Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.

[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.

"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."

The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:

1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite

Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?


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  • (Score: 0, Troll) by jmorris on Monday July 29 2019, @08:09PM (24 children)

    by jmorris (4844) on Monday July 29 2019, @08:09PM (#872793)

    A recession is the only way the 2020 race is even interesting. Since the Democrats now control most of the levers of the economy they can trigger one, bet on it. And yes you can bet on it, get to cash now and rebuy everything when i goes "on sale." A recession lasts 12-18 months and must still be hurting in the fall of 20 when most voters will become locked in.

    Yeah it is a bit disgusting but it is not exactly unknown or unexpected. Recessions happen with some regularity and as the article says, it has been a record interval. Of course the MSM can't say why it has been so long, because there was little actual recovery from the "Great Recession of '08" until the failure of Obama was gone. Up til then it was endless green shoots breathlessly reported every year but little actual growth. So it really hasn't been a decade of growth. But they have to say it to avoid speaking the Truth, which they must never do.

    We will always have the boom / bust cycle until we finally get rid of fractional reserve banking. Meaning we will always have recesions.

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  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Monday July 29 2019, @08:34PM (17 children)

    by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday July 29 2019, @08:34PM (#872803)

    there was little actual recovery from the "Great Recession of '08" until the failure of Obama was gone

    Colored commentary, much? How is it that, in the summer of '19, we have been experiencing a 10 year economic expansion, but it didn't really get started until Cheetodust hair took office in '17?

    Speaking of crooked levers to pull: one (of hundreds) pulled in the spring of '17 was to grant full depreciation of purchases in year 1 for tax accounting. Yes, that's right Virginia, you can go out and spend all your profits on shiny new stuff and hide that income from taxation like never before! Spend now, MAG... for a little while.

    --
    🌻🌻 [google.com]
    • (Score: 2, Insightful) by jmorris on Monday July 29 2019, @09:22PM (16 children)

      by jmorris (4844) on Monday July 29 2019, @09:22PM (#872819)

      Read before reacting. We didn't actually have a ten year expansion. Nobody actually thinks the recession ended in the middle of 2009, it just stopped crashing. It then slid sideways until out in Obama's second term as the economy started looking beyond Obama. As it became clear it was a choice between HRC and Trump, either was seen as an improvement so investment restarted. But the charts are clear on the markets jumping up and continuing to bounce up and down but the ups have been increasing record highs; that says the markets preferred Trump's win and has liked his policies. And yeah I'm on record as agreeing with the school of thought that says what is good for Wall Street isn't always what is good for America. Things do seem better for the country at large, just not as much better as one would guess from the markets.

      But the media can't say any of this without retconning their past coverage, the constant praise of Obama's economic results, the myth that Porkulus was anything but a huge theft of money that had little economic impact because of that. So officially Trump is sitting on a record expansion. Reality says four or maybe five years, but the official economic numbers are so cooked now we won't ever really know the details.

      • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday July 29 2019, @09:39PM (9 children)

        by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday July 29 2019, @09:39PM (#872823)

        as the economy started looking beyond Obama

        Because the great White Hope Shillary was going to fix it all? Nobody (with any sense of fiscal responsibility) bet on Trump to win.

        But the media can't say any of this without retconning their past coverage

        Since when has that stopped them? The media consuming public has the collective memory of a fruitfly, and holds media outlets accountable how? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjI5GgfNl5Q&t=21 [youtube.com]

        --
        🌻🌻 [google.com]
        • (Score: 1, Troll) by jmorris on Monday July 29 2019, @09:54PM (8 children)

          by jmorris (4844) on Monday July 29 2019, @09:54PM (#872837)

          People who aren't overly politically savvy thought Hillary would be similar to Bill and the 1990s. Of course they were almost certainly wrong, not only is Hillary the more hard core Alinsky disciple, the Democratic Party of 2016 was very different from the one in the 1990s that would permit Bill's "Triangulation Strategy." But being honest, she would probably have been an improvement over Obama, especially had Congress remained in Republican control.

          holds media outlets accountable how?

          Trump. If they suddenly declared that he didn't get credit for a ten year record expansion, because Obama's economy really did suck for most of his eight years... can you even imagine what Trump would tweet out? It would be epic.

          • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday July 29 2019, @10:04PM

            by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday July 29 2019, @10:04PM (#872848)

            can you even imagine what Trump would tweet out?

            Makes me think of a sales guy who described "bird calls" on clients - fly in, drop a little shit, fly out.

            --
            🌻🌻 [google.com]
          • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Acabatag on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:40AM

            by Acabatag (2885) on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:40AM (#872935)

            If Hillary had been elected, the ongoing ground war in Syria right now would be buoying up the economy a little. The rest of the malaise would be dragging things down, though.

          • (Score: 2) by legont on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:38AM (5 children)

            by legont (4179) on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:38AM (#872949)

            Yes, I totally agree with what you wrote in this thread. The "great recession" ended in 2016 or so and we are to have at least a decade of great expansion.

            We might get a great war as the last time back in late 30s though.

            --
            "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
            • (Score: 2) by jmorris on Tuesday July 30 2019, @06:43AM (4 children)

              by jmorris (4844) on Tuesday July 30 2019, @06:43AM (#873031)

              Nah, it goes boom. Democrats control Wall Street, the Fortune 500, the FED and the media. Any one of those could yank their levers of control hard enough to tip us into recession and there is little Trump and the Republicans could do. Against all of them they are powerless. We can assume, since this is so obviously the only possible plan available to the Democrats, especially with Russia!, Russia, Russia! a dead issue, that Trump also sees it coming. He pretty much would have to have seen it coming since he started making the good economy the centerpiece of his reelection campaign. So the crafty bastard probably has a plan and will let the Democrats walk into another trap. This really is starting to get to Roadrunner and Coyote territory where the Democrats lay ever more elaborate traps that fail for no adequately explained reason. Although Trump isn't passive like Roadrunner usually is, this is more like Tom and Jerry. Or maybe Itchy and Scratchy.

              But damned if I can even guess how you spring a trap out of the enemy crashing the economy. Other than catching them red handed doing it, but they can't be THAT stupid. Right?

              • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @07:38AM (2 children)

                by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @07:38AM (#873039)

                On average, a recession doesn't hurt the 0.1% who could orchestrate one. Provided you have sufficient assets to play, you can make money whether the markets are going up or down, so long as you know which way they are going. It's also just another way to gut pension funds and seize the plebs' defaulted properties, so within that group it's probably not even a net negative.
                It's possible that this is their way of recouping what they lost trying to make Hillary President. Time it right to get rid of Trump and it's a two for one deal.

                • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:01PM

                  by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:01PM (#873092)

                  Provided you have sufficient assets to play, you can make money whether the markets are going up or down

                  What do you mean "sufficient assets"? Anyone with money in the bank can be using it to short stocks.

                • (Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:32AM

                  by legont (4179) on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:32AM (#873344)

                  That's a fallacy in most cases. If one has a lot of money, but not too much, it might work. Serious money can not reverse the position at each recession scare. Meantime perhaps shielded foreign money could come in and take over the capital for good. Playing short is a dangerous game on any level and historically people on average lose no matter the sofistication or resources.

                  --
                  "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
              • (Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:23AM

                by legont (4179) on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:23AM (#873341)

                Don't forget that a boom, as in take cover boom, means losing money. While certain hedge oriented types don't care or even like it, overall money will be lost. Rich and powerfull might not like it at all. In addition, democrats agenda may boil into some radical changes which would mean perhaps a decade or two of loosing money overall.

                If I were Trump, I'd play this; but yes, I am not that smart and he could have a better idea.

                --
                "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
      • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:33PM (4 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:33PM (#872871)

        Ah yes "the market". The worst way to measure the health of an economy. You'd realize that if you weren't a blithering corporate apologist.

        It'll be SO MUCH FUN listening to your self-righteous bitching when the effects of Trump's policies start to sink in during the next administration. We already have the historic data, Democrats fix budget, Republicans destroy budget by giving away money to their masters. Not that some D's aren't corrupt, but at least they aren't close to 100% like your best frens riding the elephant.

        The economy is not booming, there are serious problems all around the US that aren't factored into the Stock Market.

        • (Score: 3, Touché) by Runaway1956 on Monday July 29 2019, @11:44PM (3 children)

          by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 29 2019, @11:44PM (#872903) Journal

          Democrats fix budget, Republicans destroy budget

          God, you've been drinking the partisan Kool-Aid. The one D who made that sentence look true took advantage of a construction boom, and NAFTA. The rest of them? To whom do you refer? You realize that "a chicken in every pot" isn't exactly a booming economy? It's somewhat better than a starvation economy, which is what most socialist governments eventually give their citizens.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @11:59PM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @11:59PM (#872908)

            lol

            Grow a spine dipshit, eventually you might end up with a brain!

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:12AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:12AM (#872913)

              Nice job of shooting the messenger! Talk about dipshits, LOL!

          • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:17AM

            by JoeMerchant (3937) on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:17AM (#873338)

            I think slick Willie clearly had 8 years of boom, and Hopey Changey managed even better, he didn't have things overheated and ready to implode when he left office. W couldn't manage an economic expansion even with a hugely expensive war. The last Republican administration that seemed to do things well, in terms of economic competition, was the Reagan crew - Bedtime for Bonzo as the front man, but the power brokers behind him did seal the deal on the USSR, which, in retrospect, was pretty damn impressive.

            --
            🌻🌻 [google.com]
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @05:46PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @05:46PM (#873202)

        Care to tell us what the average rate of return on your savings looks like?
        I'm tired of broke bitches who go on the internet and talk like economists.

  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:29AM (4 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:29AM (#872958)

    "A recession is the only way the 2020 race is even interesting."

    As usual you start with a stupid statement and work your way stupider. I can think of at least 3 more interesting things about 2020 than Trump throwing US under the bus to save his own skin. Nice way to try and head it off by blaming the Democrats ahead of time!

    Obama really broke what was left of conservative self-respect. Seeing the Obama effigies in flames hanging from trees showed us what conservatives are willing to let pass, and every year up until now has only let that line shift further right. Now we have brown toned US citizens detained over mere suspicion, and their legal documents ignored on the chance that they are fake. Kids in cages, etc.

    We're all a bit tired of having to run through the horror, except for those like you who would rather shit talk your political opponents and glorify your politicians who are busy doing all the things you fear liberals will do. It was enlightening to see you hypocrites not bat an eye when Trump said "take their guns worry about due process later."

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/376097-trump-take-the-guns-first-go-through-due-process-second [thehill.com]

    That is literally one of the biggest conservatives fears, but it turns out you're spineless jelly fish.

    • (Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:28AM (3 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:28AM (#873005)
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:57AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:57AM (#873020)

        Obama was not allowed to be personally insulted, because he was considered black.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:23PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:23PM (#873128)

        Hadn't seen those, they are also disgusting displays of violent rhetoric.

        But hey, thanks for the link because the asshole at spectrumreport said "In scenes that would never have been allowed had it been directed at previous President Barack Obama, a man was captured by Vervima News yesterday seemingly flying around what looks like is meant to be the head of Trump, with blood dangling from his neck."

        Typical hypocritical view, condemn immoral actions when directed at conservatives, applaud when done to enemies. Plays into your persecution complex. "They'd never let this happen to a BLAAAACK person cause they are special, you're just white traaaash!"

        As usual your go to defense is "but liberals did it toooooo" like we all have the same flexible moral code as you. Puh leez.

        • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 31 2019, @02:51AM

          by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 31 2019, @02:51AM (#873392)

          Didn't really read them. I was just looking for a Kathy Griffin link because she was the one I remembered.
          Also, I fear you misunderstand me. Burning/hanging/decapitating in effigy is alright for both parties - my main complaint would be about the 'in effigy' part,.

  • (Score: 2) by Thexalon on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:29PM

    by Thexalon (636) on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:29PM (#873154)

    Since the Democrats now control most of the levers of the economy they can trigger one

    Oh, so you're saying that the current expansion of the economy and reduction in unemployment is the Democrats' doing? Clearly, we need to keep them in control of most of the levers of the economy then if we want good things to happen - otherwise things might get seriously fouled up like they did in 2008 with the Republicans in charge.

    Or are you saying that the organization that currently controls the Senate, Presidency, Supreme Court, and the Federal Reserve is somehow completely powerless over the economy, and it's the party that controls the House that is in control of "most of the levers of the economy"? And if so, wouldn't that make Newt Gingrich the primary cause of the dot-com boom-bust cycle back in the late 1990's?

    Or are you implying that the Democrats somehow control the actions of Wall Street tycoons, even though Wall Street has never shown loyalty to any entity other than their own bank accounts?

    Somehow I don't think you thought this through.

    --
    The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.