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posted by Fnord666 on Monday July 29 2019, @06:31PM   Printer-friendly
from the what's-in-your-wallet? dept.

A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:

Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.

Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.

Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.

[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.

"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."

The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:

1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite

Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?


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  • (Score: 5, Interesting) by fyngyrz on Monday July 29 2019, @09:44PM (20 children)

    by fyngyrz (6567) on Monday July 29 2019, @09:44PM (#872827) Journal

    I wonder what they should call it when you still have your job, but your pay hasn't gone up, you've lost your medical coverage because it is simply unaffordable, and the cost of... pretty much everything but electronics... has gone up. While people make great money in the stock markets and the CEO's "earn" many-digit bonuses, and of course the political blunder machine rolls on relentlessly eating those hard-earned lower-class tax monies.

    --
    Math puns are the first sine of madness

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  • (Score: 3, Informative) by FatPhil on Monday July 29 2019, @09:51PM (1 child)

    by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Monday July 29 2019, @09:51PM (#872833) Homepage
    Sounds like "stagflation". We're there already. Or at least can't avoid it.
    --
    Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
  • (Score: 5, Touché) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday July 29 2019, @09:58PM (17 children)

    by Azuma Hazuki (5086) on Monday July 29 2019, @09:58PM (#872842) Journal

    "Late-stage capitalism." Or "Reaganomics coming home to roost." Sometimes when I can't sleep I imagine that senile goddamn clownshoe Reagan howling and writhing and screaming in hellfire, and it helps.

    --
    I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:24AM

      Last time we saw it was under Carter, I think you'll find.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:31AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:31AM (#872927)

      >Late-stage capitalism
      You mean socialist paradise, all the new productivity gains involve *reducing* manpower requirements. The productive proles enjoy what they can from the fruits of their labor through consumerism and are occasionally rewarded richly by the system for their participation. No, there are no hidden caches of iPhones, it's all sold out.

      The governments/megacorps will play musical chairs with resource allocation to keep the system going just a bit longer. There is still too much to lose to fall back into the state of nature.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:23AM (4 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:23AM (#872947) Journal

      "Late-stage capitalism."

      Sounds like time to go back to early-stage capitalism. After all, no other economic system has this good a late-stage.

      • (Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Thursday August 01 2019, @10:13PM (3 children)

        by Azuma Hazuki (5086) on Thursday August 01 2019, @10:13PM (#874296) Journal

        You'll need to redistribute all that wealth and put all those natural resources back into the ground before you can do that, pal. And good luck undoing all the low-hanging fruit research we've already done; you can't discover oil or fusion or a moon landing or a specific drug twice.

        --
        I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday August 02 2019, @12:00PM (2 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday August 02 2019, @12:00PM (#874573) Journal

          You'll need to redistribute all that wealth and put all those natural resources back into the ground before you can do that, pal.

          There's still plenty of resources, and wealth was distributed worse than it is now. Something wrong with the narrative again, pal.

          • (Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Saturday August 03 2019, @01:40PM (1 child)

            by Azuma Hazuki (5086) on Saturday August 03 2019, @01:40PM (#875116) Journal

            Wealth on paper means jack and shit. Fiat, floating currency is a con game. There are not "plenty of resources," the big one for cheap energy has been mostly burned and chucked into the atmosphere as CO2, and wealth was distributed worse than it was now *prior to World War II."

            Something's wrong with the narrative all right. Yours.

            --
            I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 04 2019, @10:51PM

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 04 2019, @10:51PM (#875700) Journal
              The funny thing is that your statement about wealth applies more to rich people wealth than poor. It's all on paper.
    • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:58AM (8 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:58AM (#872997)

      "Late stage capitalism"

      Go back to reddit. I cringe whenever I see that.

      • (Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Thursday August 01 2019, @10:25PM (7 children)

        by Azuma Hazuki (5086) on Thursday August 01 2019, @10:25PM (#874311) Journal

        Tone trolling counts for jack and squat, but nice try. I'm not wrong, either; capitalism, unchecked by proper regulation, exhibits a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop whereby wealth, assets, and resources in general become increasingly and increasingly-quickly concentrated in the hands of a few actors. We're very close to the point of breakdown and degeneration into feudalism, i.e., in the late stage.

        What was your argument again? Oh, right, nothing but tone trolling.

        --
        I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
        • (Score: 0, Flamebait) by khallow on Friday August 02 2019, @12:38PM (6 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday August 02 2019, @12:38PM (#874588) Journal

          capitalism, unchecked by proper regulation

          The fantasy spinning continues. If this is the situation, then why aren't we seeing huge increases in worker deaths? Pollution? Fraud and thievery at the corporate level?

          exhibits a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop whereby wealth, assets, and resources in general become increasingly and increasingly-quickly concentrated in the hands of a few actors

          Where's the evidence, pal?

          We're very close to the point of breakdown and degeneration into feudalism, i.e., in the late stage.

          Perhaps, though once again, where's the evidence? I'll note also that a lot of the dynamics that push towards feudalism, like professional licensing, zoning, and government entitlements, aren't capitalist in nature. It could well be late state something, but late stage capitalism? You need evidence of a connection.

          • (Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Saturday August 03 2019, @01:38PM (5 children)

            by Azuma Hazuki (5086) on Saturday August 03 2019, @01:38PM (#875115) Journal

            You re willfully blind. Wealth has been concentrating at the top for almost 40 goddamn years, the data are out there if you but care to look, and it would take less than a minute of Googling.

            There is none so blind as he who refuses to see. I get it, you're never gonna change; you love, love, deepthroating that jackboot that's been stomping on your skull. You think you're a temporarily-embarrassed millionaire. You think you're one of the boys in the club. Pal, you ain't; the "boys in the club" don't even know you exist, and would sooner drop you feet-first in a running meatgrinder and stand under the spigot to shower in your blood as you howl and scream in mortal agony.

            --
            I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 04 2019, @10:51PM (4 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 04 2019, @10:51PM (#875701) Journal

              You re willfully blind. Wealth has been concentrating at the top for almost 40 goddamn years, the data are out there if you but care to look, and it would take less than a minute of Googling.

              Wealth on paper has been. Guess what you said [soylentnews.org] about that.

              Wealth on paper means jack and shit.

              And of course, such wealth measures completely ignore future income, the greatest sort of wealth for debtors.

              • (Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday August 05 2019, @10:21PM (3 children)

                by Azuma Hazuki (5086) on Monday August 05 2019, @10:21PM (#876214) Journal

                Do me a huge favor and wake the entire world up to this fact then, please. Because until people realize this, they're just going to keep sleepwalking along until reality wakes them up.

                I know you won't do any such thing of course. Your worldview depends on the nightmare continuing. You actually think you're going to get out of this scot-free. You seriously think you're one of the elite down on his luck, and Any Minute Now (TM) they'll be sending the mothership along to beam you up. How very droll...

                --
                I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
                • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:35AM (2 children)

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:35AM (#876440) Journal

                  Do me a huge favor and wake the entire world up to this fact then, please.

                  Why? The disease is the cure. That's one of the nice things about market-based economies. They fix a lot of stuff without intervention.

                  Your worldview depends on the nightmare continuing.

                  What nightmare? The world is better than it's ever been. That's what counts with me.

                  You actually think you're going to get out of this scot-free.

                  Well, at least I think, eh?

                  You seriously think you're one of the elite down on his luck, and Any Minute Now (TM) they'll be sending the mothership along to beam you up. How very droll...

                  Ah, yes, can't let rational thought get in the way of the narrative. I have no such expectations, of course, nor ever said otherwise. But that sort of fact never slips into your fantasies.

                  • (Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:45AM (1 child)

                    by Azuma Hazuki (5086) on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:45AM (#876448) Journal

                    Do you really think this entire site hasn't got your number by now, you self-serving fool? None of your actions or posts make sense in any other context. You're trying to deepthroat the boot that's stomping on your face, in the hope that you'll get your own pair of stompin' boots Someday Soon (TM). You are a parody of yourself.

                    --
                    I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
                    • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Tuesday August 06 2019, @04:09PM

                      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 06 2019, @04:09PM (#876580) Journal

                      Do you really think this entire site hasn't got your number by now, you self-serving fool?

                      You are projecting hard today.

                      None of your actions or posts make sense in any other context.

                      By your context, which unfortunately, isn't firing on all cylinders. I think most other people just don't have that problem.

                      You're trying to deepthroat the boot that's stomping on your face, in the hope that you'll get your own pair of stompin' boots Someday Soon (TM).

                      And of course, can't forget the narrative no matter how nonsensical it gets. I have no interest or expectation of getting my own jack boots - something which I've mentioned before.

                      This is the same bullshit you've pulled out dozens of times before. I seem to recall that you've been exposed to critical thinking ideas and techniques before. It's time you started using them.

    • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:28PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:28PM (#873129)

      Mama mia you triggered the idiots! Saint Ronnie noooooooo.