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A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:
Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.
Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.
Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.
[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.
"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."
The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:
1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite
Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:44AM (12 children)
(Score: 3, Insightful) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:07AM (11 children)
As opposed to all those clever Republicans who don't participate in the economy?
As long the usual suspects continue to control the economy nobody is "talking it down".
You're still fixated on Democrats v Republicans, which is exactly what they want from you. Makes a change from your usual terror about THE JEWS™ I suppose.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:05AM (10 children)
As opposed to all the people buying low and selling high. I strongly suspect they won't belong to the dumbshit party.
Since there are repeated recessions, control must be limited.
Because I have posted something about the JOOS in the past year? Two maybe? It's clearly on my mind.
(Score: 2) by jmorris on Tuesday July 30 2019, @06:53AM (2 children)
You do not understand. If you are a big money type you love both the boom and the bust and make huge gains from both, so long as you guess when they will occur. And if you are part of the ruling elite that decide when to go from boom to bust.....
Just as long as the routine boom bust cycle does not accidentally go out of control and create an actual meltdown, like the Great Depression. FDR's incompetent meddling turned what would have been a rough recession (and was for the rest of the world) into a downward spiral that could have ended with Venezuela like results had not a convenient World War came along.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @05:52PM (1 child)
Ah you must be talking about how trump pressures the fed to lower rates and then randomly crashes the stock market with crazy tariff talk?
I mean you drop tons of big words so you've been watching the market like a hawk I presume?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @06:08PM
Trump has "randomly crashed the stock market"? It is pretty much at all time highs, show us one of these "crashes"?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday July 30 2019, @08:30PM (6 children)
The people who run the US don't give a toss which party is in power, as they control both of them. You can see this by the way former Goldman Sachs executives have been appointed to the role of Treasury Secretary on a regular basis, by regimes from both parties.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @09:19PM (5 children)
They'll never have to worry about the dumbshit party being in power.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday July 30 2019, @10:07PM (4 children)
OK then. I don't know which party you're alluding to there, but whatever.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 31 2019, @02:02AM (3 children)
The people stupid enough to get panicked by news are the dumbshit party, in other words the people who listened as referred to in my earliest post in this thread. Reading comprehension > telling me what I think.
Perhaps you're still fixated on Democrats v Republicans, eh?
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Wednesday July 31 2019, @02:10AM (2 children)
Or there's this quote from your earlier post:
Try again.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 31 2019, @01:49PM (1 child)
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Wednesday July 31 2019, @08:00PM
Need a hand moving those goalposts?