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A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:
Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.
Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.
Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.
[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.
"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."
The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:
1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite
Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:23AM (4 children)
Sounds like time to go back to early-stage capitalism. After all, no other economic system has this good a late-stage.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Thursday August 01 2019, @10:13PM (3 children)
You'll need to redistribute all that wealth and put all those natural resources back into the ground before you can do that, pal. And good luck undoing all the low-hanging fruit research we've already done; you can't discover oil or fusion or a moon landing or a specific drug twice.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday August 02 2019, @12:00PM (2 children)
There's still plenty of resources, and wealth was distributed worse than it is now. Something wrong with the narrative again, pal.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Saturday August 03 2019, @01:40PM (1 child)
Wealth on paper means jack and shit. Fiat, floating currency is a con game. There are not "plenty of resources," the big one for cheap energy has been mostly burned and chucked into the atmosphere as CO2, and wealth was distributed worse than it was now *prior to World War II."
Something's wrong with the narrative all right. Yours.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 04 2019, @10:51PM